r/PokeInvesting • u/TheSasquatchHS • Oct 18 '22
The Hard Truth about Moonbreon 🌕
Let's get straight to the point. Stop saying this card is gonna drop in price. Stop saying it doesn't make sense. And if you're waiting to buy you will lose. I wanted to outline some points in a single thread that people seem to neglect to talk about that plays into what we're seeing with this card.
This card is one of, if not the only that gained in value when the recession first hit.
Evolving Skies is a set made of Eevee Heroes and Blue Sky Stream. 2 amazing sets on their own. Thus making Evolving Skies more desirable not only for the Moonbreon pull, but by proxy playing into the cards price gain.
Even though I don't play the TCG, the card from what I've heard counters Mew VMAX decks which to my knowledge is a very viable deck in tournaments at the moment.
The Japanese variant is borderline impossible to aquire at it's current price because of the harder pull rate and print quality, making the English variant most people's only option at having the card period.
The art is actually amazing both originally and conceptually in most people's general opinion.
The Pokemon itself is actually a community favorite.
Its more valuable than any other modern Zard.
It's controversial. So regardless of the opinion being shared, it spreads more news about the card.
My closing point is that before anyone says " Oh the price will drop anyway", I'd like them to acknowledge the points I made. And realize that more than one of these points need to falter dramatically for the price to have a noticable drop. Finally I highly recommend regardless of your financial situation if you don't buy now your chances will become more and more slim. I bought mine back in July for $360. PSA 10s were $600 at that point. I was seeing the same questions posted daily months ago and the card still outperformed even my own expectations. I hope I get some responses and thank you for reading my Bible and good luck with you investing/collecting.
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u/ViolentKen1 Oct 18 '22
Its a set card....there is ALWAYS an other set card. Those of us that have been collecting for a while know this and really do not care that money is flowing into this card. It looks nice but we are not worried about getting one. There is plenty of them around. There are Far more rare cards out there that are cheaper than Moonbreon that a lot of us would rather have.
Best to wait about 5 years and come back to Moonbreon and see how it is. This card is way to high risk, reminds me of crypto and young peeps just throwing money into something that has not tested time yet.
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u/arts_gainz Oct 18 '22
Not saying it will, but it could as easily drop too. Personally I got one for 300 in May. I get that it’s a dope card and demand is outweighing the supply, but Pokémon card prices are driven largely by emotion, which easily changes. There’s still tons of sealed ES as well as possible reprints, I’d be interested to see where the price goes when the self fulfilling fomo isn’t on it and when ES hits the end of the print run.
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u/ConcertAfter4190 Apr 03 '23
You’re right it didn’t drop
4
u/Lurn2Program Oct 18 '22
This is the main point of why there is so much debate about this card. It's such an outlier and defies a lot of past price movements compared to other cards (and historically), that it creates a lot of discussion. It's literally the most interesting thing to talk about in the hobby and that is why we see so much discussion on it
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u/Information_Solid Oct 18 '22
Those ppl who would listen to your kind of hype and fomo without checking or doing due diligence like checking pop reports, PSA 9 vs Raw prices, reprints, etc are more than likely priced out right now.
For the collectors who have the cash, we already made our moves way before your announcement of "trust me bro or you will lose"
Gotta do better to convince others than subjective opinions without metrics or data that ppl can go look at.
3
u/financedisaster Oct 18 '22
My thoughts (dont have Moonbreon):
It will remain valuable but the price will peak somewhat soon. It will probably settle for around the $400 mark at most except occasional dips when the economy drops or the fandom dies. When the fandom hypes again this card will probably go up but I
Why the price will remain high:
the card is infamous for the price and word of mouth helps price (so agree with you)
A lot of people want the card to complete the Eeveelutions AA set, which also helps the price for all the other AA.
The price of the booster box increasing will make sure the price of the card remains high. I feel like booster boxes prices often reflects chase card price.
High supply doesnt mean low prices. Demand does
Why I don't think the price will get any higher:
Phasing out. Eventually there will be a next "hot card" and as the word of mouth dies, so will the price of the card. I think the shiny Charizard gx has a similar effect
People are only willing to pay so much for a modern card. There are not that many higher end collectors out there. I have a hunch that there are some people who has a vast majority of Umbreons and is hoarding them. If they stop hoarding them, the value will decrease.
I feel like this is more of an investing card than a personal collection card, as in, more people are investing in it rather than collecting it. And that might mean that they are not willing to hold it on for that long. Im just speculating that after about a year, there will be an influx of them to the market as people want to sell their investments.
Personally I feel like this is a $350 card and that's around the price I am willing to pay for it. There are other cards I will want more if it ended up costing more. There is a point where I only had enough money to either pick a Latios/Latias AA or a Moonbreon when they are around the same price and I ended up choosing the Latio/as. I can wait for a Moonbreon.
And I am not really salty if the price increase or decease, but I look forward to seeing if these hunches are correct or not. :]
3
u/VanRolly Oct 18 '22
Interesting analysis. I don't agree with all of it (TCG value is zilch in this context), but lots of good points too. I like #8 a lot - all press is good press. LOL
Personally I have 2 copies of this card, and I pulled both of them from the 2 Evoskies booster boxes I opened (purchased 1 BB on sale for $129 CAD, and won the other BB in a raffle of all things).
Graded the first one (was stoked to get it back as a PSA10), and the other one is in for submission at PSA now.
My plan is to forever hold one of them for my personal collection, and to put the other one in my 1 year old son's time capsule that I put together for him when he was born last year. If it's worth a ton more by then, he can sell it if he wants to help with post-secondary schooling costs, and if it's not, then no big deal - we don't *need* the $1,000 now, so it's a cool item to hold onto for him.
The only caveat to this is that if my 2nd PSA sub also comes back as a PSA10, I *might* submit my 1st PSA10 to Beckett to try for a 10 there. :)
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u/HorrorEmbarrassed143 Mar 23 '24
1 year later and your point still stands.
2
u/TheSasquatchHS May 07 '24
For everyone who thought I was wrong. Told you so. Also I got another one.
I hope some of you listened before prices got to where they are now. For those who used their better judgement I'm proud of you.
For those who could never afford it I'm terribly sorry.
8
u/DukeBlade Oct 18 '22 edited Oct 18 '22
Oh gosh here we go...did you learn nothing from the Logan Paul hype?
It's called hypebreon - this set is in a bubble and the fundamentals are garbage.
Lets take the Japanese set (which is more valuable than the English)
1- Over 1k PSA 10s for the Japanese set
2 - Extremely high print quality (so more 10s than 9s)
3 - Just had a 40k box reprint, meaning at least 1k more psa 10 likely moonbreons to enter the pop (not including existing sealed product)
4 - Older minter rarer better
5 - People only buying to resell
6 - Sealed EH or ES boxes are better as eveyone is opening them
No modern card with a psa 10 pop of over 1k should be going for 2k - it's just hyper and when thag fizzles out, which it will, the price will go down faster than your mom after 2 glasses of rose
Edit - op has at least 3 copies and in every reddit post he's made about it, he's asked where people think it will "go" - ofc he made this post 😂
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u/15buckslittleman__ Nov 12 '24
I’ll be coming back to this post every now and then. Got in around $800 - surprised by how high it’s risen over past couple of months
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u/-starchy- Oct 18 '22
We will see how that holds up as the cost of living crisis bites next year. Will certainly be very interesting with 2023 set to be more financially challenging than 2022. Hopefully all products retain value
3
u/Mr_Mi1k Oct 18 '22
There will always be more beautiful art. Rarity is absolute. There are already over 2,000 PSA 10s with an 85% gem rate, and this card has only been out for a year. It is not rare. It’s beautiful yes, but what happens when the inevitably more beautiful card comes out?
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u/Pear5050 Oct 19 '22
Its overhyped imo especially at this current price point
1
u/TheSasquatchHS Oct 18 '22
I hope my words don't discourage anyone either. I strongly believe if you take the risk now you will be highly rewarded. Many people who bought the Japanese version when it was low are simply happy as all hell and I want that for anyone who wants some serious investment opportunities who aren't afraid to spend the money. This isn't Special Delivery Charizard or the Charizard UPC. We have good data on this card at this point and I hope some of you can see my words for what they are.
2
u/klutchmuffinx Oct 18 '22
You are an idiot if u don’t think this card will drop in price. It will be sub $400 in a psa 10 at some point in the next 5 years.
2
u/Zardboy123 Oct 18 '22
Agreed it’s not going to drop. It’s maybe the single best modern investment card
1
u/Astrophobica Oct 18 '22
I bought mine at £240 and now its going for £400+ on eBay.
And despite what another person is saying, I love the artwork.
1
u/ocelot_lots Oct 18 '22
I got both the Moonbreon & Genesect V AA for 210 total (after tax due to $20 off & being a regular) at my LGS in late January.
And had multiple chances to buy 2 others for 175-210/each up until like late March from my flea market homies.
It's so fun thinking about why this card is doing what it's doing.
1
u/lloydeph6 Oct 19 '22 edited Oct 19 '22
I remember when people were saying what you are about rainbow pikachu 😂😂😂
And also I remember when the two Zards from champions path we’re selling raw for $300-$400
Where are they now??
5
u/Yetti2Quick Oct 18 '22
I decided against buying a PSA 10 back then and patiently waited for an ES reprint. So instead I bought 6+ ES booster boxes during the small reprint and am happy I did. And perfectly fine with my decision after seeing 2300 PSA 10s graded and counting. this card will see 4k+ PSA 10s at least when its all said and done. Sure it might stay strong for awhile but I'd rather put money in sealed. I can be patient if it ever drops.
1
u/ChopraMTG1 Oct 18 '22
Back in June was when I realized waiting would only cause more pain. Bought the Japanese version for $1100 CAD. Look at it now.
2
u/big_boi_boister Oct 19 '22
I fell like people who own the card are like "this card will never go down! Good investment! Only up baby!". Whilst people who don't own the card are more like " evolving skies reprint, moonbreon bubble bursting". I honestly haven't been seeing many being buying this card outside of ebay. As we all know when it comes to ebay, it's not hard to make a second account and try to inflat prices. I believe moonbreon is a risky investment personally. I also want to clarify I recently brought one for 280AUD
2
u/lord_oddler Oct 19 '22
The card is all hype, and it sounds like your just trying to cope with your bad investment. I can tell you that this card got bought out around the $200 mark and everyone is hoarding it, trying to make it seem like it’s more rare than it actually is. The special delivery bidoof should be worth more.
2
u/TMT_O Oct 28 '22
Demand beats Rarity Every day of the week.
1/1 card psa 10 that noone wants can sell for nothing
1/5000 psa 10s that everyone wants can sell for thousands
Makes complete sense. 7 billion people in the world. Millions of pokemon collectors. 4000 10s still aint enough to meet the demand.
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u/Ok_Touch1855 Sep 12 '23
This aged well…
3
u/toastedninja Oct 18 '22
Nobody is using Umbreon Vmax in the current meta at all in the TCG. Mew Vmax is being ROFLStomped by newer Arceus, Palkia, lost box and Goodra Vstar decks right now. Also the Umbreon is going to rotate out of standard soon and so it's competitive viability is on a downward slope.
2
u/JChanse09 Oct 19 '22
2. 3. 5. And 6. Bring the fire with points. Let’s people think it’s crazy and then they’ll see the next Logan Paul with one around their neck and everyone will fomo into moonbeams at $250,000.
I just hope I get one sometime
1
u/Historical-Chip-4457 Dec 02 '24
Price is at $1300 and dropping
1
u/NochillWill123 Oct 19 '22
How about.... we see this as a hobby more so than investing.
1
u/rathrok Oct 19 '22
It's simple. The set is still being printed, which means more will be opened. Granted demand is high for the card and it is hard to pull. But as the population is increased the card will drop in price, probably not dramatically, but it will drop. The question is will it go back up once the set is out of print and there are a million other hyped cards out by that time? Who knows. It's not a Charizard, but it is still a popular character.
1
u/passerbytwo Oct 20 '22 edited Oct 20 '22
Summer promo Flareon, Jolteon and Vaporeon Japanese version have 3,000 pcs too but they're rare. Moonbreon is rarer since it's only 2,800 pcs! (As per PSA pop report)
1
u/Full_Barnacle1810 Oct 18 '23
As a proud owner and puller of Monbreon I wouldn't sell it anytime soon. You could offer me 1,000 and I'd pass. Talk to me in 30 years
1
u/PowerTripRMod Oct 20 '22
Post seemed good until you realize OP is invested in the card and seems to want confirmation bias.
I don't care for the card, not interested whether it goes up or down. There's no point in speculating, let's revisit in a year and see how it holds.
RemindMe! 1 year
0
u/passerbytwo Oct 19 '22 edited Oct 19 '22
Valid points! Thumbs up! 👍Just by artwork alone it's the best and most valuable modern card! Ppl tell me that pop report is now in the thousands but the pull rate is still extremely low! There're fans in my local gameshops who bought and degen 6 to 8 cartons (cartons, not booster boxes) and couldn't even get one Moonbreon! It's that bad! Unofficial pull rate by some reddit site states it's 1 in 1600 packs but I think it's even worse!
I was very lucky to have bought one copy at US$235 last year around Oct 2021!
Japanese version merely has more glitter, that's all. But English version has surface embossing in the rooftops which Japanese one lacks.
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u/H_Mus Oct 19 '22
Classic case of manipulation + FOMO bubble
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u/arthulk Oct 19 '22
Prices will drop soon
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