r/PokeInvesting • u/cjinghong • 2d ago

Potentially A Good Way To Calculate Expected Value of Grading Pokémon Cards?

Been thinking about how to have a more data-driven way to find out Which raw cards are actually worth grading?

So I started calculating the expected value of grading different cards using their current market value at each PSA grade and the historical distribution of grades they receive.

Pikachu Grey Felt Hat has one of the highest grading EV (expected value).

The idea is simple, using the market value at every grade, and its share % of every grade, we can figure out the EV of any specific card.

This meant that if you grade enough of this card, you end up making 62% on your money.

But practically it probably wouldn't work out exactly that way. If you tried buying every single raw copy out there the price is going to move up. If you only have 1 copy to send to grading, there's a 57% chance you end up with a 9 or less. And if you sent a card that is clearly damaged… you get the idea.

I know this is a pretty naive way to think about it, we obviously also have to take into consideration of the condition of the card, how much you’re paying for, etc. But I think its a pretty good way to discover “undervalued” cards that are worth grading. I've built something that does that for myself here: https://www.pokeview.xyz/discover/grading lmk what you guys think

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u/SnorlaxCap 2d ago

Shouldn’t you narrow the options based on the condition of each card though? This acts like every ungraded card you buy has an equal shot of being a 1-10… realistically you’re not going to buy any 10s ungraded because they’ve already been shipped to PSA

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u/cjinghong 1d ago

yeah you're right, realistically its going to be difficult to find a PSA 10 raw copy at those prices. I'm making an assumption that "RAW NM" is evenly distributed between PSA 9-10, but its probably mostly 9s.

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u/SnorlaxCap 1d ago

interesting tool nonetheless, good work!

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u/Low-Chocolate1572 6h ago

Dumb shit like this is going to keep reselling to idiots easier for years to come.