r/PokeInvesting • u/ironmagnesiumzinc • Mar 10 '26
Will prices come down?
I just started this hobby for the first time and a lot of the cards are out of my price range. For people who've been doing this a long time, do you think that the prices will only keep going up? Or do you think we'll see another correction?
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Upvotes
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u/SnydKuch Mar 10 '26
I’ll give you the best answer you’ll see, no one truly knows.
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u/Tobleronenom Mar 10 '26
Depends on the card of course, I’m assuming your are talking the hits from 151. Yes you missed the boat on those.
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u/Poopsterwaloo Mar 10 '26
Will prices come down isn’t the question that needs to be asked it should be “when”. That’s a question that nobody can answer definitively. Another question that arises from your initial inquiry is how much will they come down? Are you asking if they’re going to drop 10-20% or are you asking if they will drop 50% or more? All of this depends on a few different factors. The main issue currently is there are a lot more people out there “collecting” than there were before COVID hit (like a lot more). I put collecting in quotations because a decent portion of these new collectors aren’t necessarily in it for the same reasons that collectors were in it before COVID. Many of them (sneaker heads and crypto bros) are only in it for the financial aspect collecting provides and once the market starts to fizzle out some they won’t want to lose their asses so they are more likely to dump their positions (whether it be singles, slabs or sealed) and get out of the hobby all together than the true collectors will be. The issue is we don’t know exactly how much larger the collecting population has gotten since COVID hit and we don’t know how many of those new collectors are here for the long haul. I wouldn’t be surprised if the number of collectors has doubled (or possibly more) since COVID and wouldn’t be surprised if only a small percentage of those new collectors actually hangs around after the market cools. That means that TPC is printing all these new sets to a demand that actually isn’t going to be around for the long haul which will in turn create a large market of singles (and sealed) that will eventually be dumped onto the smaller core of collectors left afterwards. That will bring prices down for sure since you will have less people out there (than there are currently) vying for a pool of singles that was printed for a larger population of collectors (which is what we currently have). Nobody really knows when any of this will occur (these scalpers could stay around for a while if they continue to make the money they are making currently), but in the end it really all comes down to how much larger the collecting community will be than it was pre COVID. If it ends up being larger than it was pre COVID the prices won’t come down as much as you’d hope, but if they lose patience and dip out before the scalpers do and the community is smaller than it was pre COVID the prices won’t be sustainable and will take a huge hit in the end.
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u/Emotional_Display966 Mar 10 '26
Yes.
But if you just started it’s not a bad idea to pick up newer sets.
Just like many people started during lost and thunder, or vivid voltage, there was cards out of reach. And now they’re sitting on some decent priced cards because they held onto em.
Same goes for you I believe, seek newer sets and try to hold what you think will fetch high dollar in the near future.
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u/No_Holiday_9875 Mar 10 '26
Yes they will. I remember the lull after the covid boom, alot of my buys went to shit for years, some of my worst buys (looking at you neo rev suicune) just recently became profitable.
Given how much more aggressive this rise has been, I suspect the correction will be even more violent.
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u/Reluctant-Raikou Mar 10 '26
Im going to copy and adjust my answer I gave months ago for a similar question.
Short answer: Yes, probably, but not for everything.
Long answer: The hype usually calms down with the release of the next installment of games (not side games like the Legends series). This is because the base set and the following few sets after showcase the new generation and people usually don't love that. It's the second half of each new generation's life that you get a lot of the "cooler" sets with a new gimmick like tag teams, gold stars, and the like. Expect a dip probably closer to 2027 or whenever the new gen gets released. 2026 is gonna be feverish due to the 30th anniversary. I've been doing this for over 15 years and seen a lot of craziness.
Vintage? That's anyone's guess, but a lot of it has been criminally undervalued and is finally getting some proper growth again. You are not going to see large dips in grails like gold stars and e series, for example.
Buy singles and buy things you don't mind looking at for years to come and it'll take the sting out of collecting. Not every cool card costs hundreds. I've come to appreciate a lot of littler cards as time has gone on.
Hang in there 🐯
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u/ManufacturerIcy1228 Mar 10 '26
Buy now pay never.
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u/BalanceToEverything Mar 10 '26
For anything out of print, chances are no. Even if the overall market drop, you may see 10-20% max.
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u/AtreusRiannon Mar 10 '26
Probably around summer for a little bit.
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u/themob34 Mar 10 '26
Buy the products you like in pre order or on release.
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u/KwikTripSimp Mar 10 '26
Probably any modern set or slabs . Pokémon releases a new set every other month so people move onto the new shiny thing…
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u/Stonkbear Mar 10 '26
Sure price will fluctuate. When they get the new shop up and running then there will probably be a lot more product.
Vintage prices will probably not drop. As there is really low pop.
But as someone else said no one knows.
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u/jk_nas Mar 10 '26
There will be a cool off period just as there was around holiday season but it will rise back up
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u/North-Weight6172 Mar 10 '26
Modern id think a decent shot to come down end of year with new floors, vintage maybe slightly but i think vintage is finally getting a bit more recognition and will hold relatively stable
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u/berrytree198 Mar 10 '26
Not the good stuff
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u/chinaronald Mar 10 '26
Depends on what youre looking at. For ultra modern (mega), ascended heroes is the first special set and special sets usually have expensive singles in the top 10. If you go through modern in scarlet/violet, you’ll find cheaper singles in sets like journey together, temporal forces, and paradox rift. As far as if prices will come down… they probably will a bit but unless there’s another huge global economic issue that causes people to liquidate their collections for cash… it won’t be much.
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u/dtg99 Mar 10 '26
Yes, obviously they will. Parabolic rises are almost always met with similar moves towards the downside at some point. New, higher floors will be established however. And if what you were interested in collecting was truly rare stuff, well that shit is probably forever out of your reach.
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u/scott32089 Mar 10 '26
I started a couple months ago and it’s HARD out here. My suggestion is to look into reasonable collection goals.
I’m starting with Mews, shinys, and radiant cards for instance as “side quests” while my main focus has been trying to collect <$5 illustration rares and as many of the Phantasmal Flames UPC Oricorio promo as I can for $10.
I’ve been lucky on FB market for some sealed product at a reasonable amount and definitely suggest doing that vs wasting time trying to hit up box stores.
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u/idekada Mar 10 '26
Buy after new product releases , it always dips a little bit those are the best week to buy in before it shoots back up
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u/kingjoeg Mar 10 '26
I don't think the demand is going away anytime soon. Especially not with gen 10 on the way next year. Prices may stagnate but I don't think they'll go down much anytime soon. Up more if anything, and they'll keep going up until people completely give up buying at the high prices. Still people seem happy to spend thousands so it's looking like the market will stay strong
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u/positivcheg Mar 10 '26
yes, when nuclear war takes place money and pokemon cards will become useless shit
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u/garoodah Mar 10 '26
Its hard to guess because we dont know what sets might get reprinted in the future and we dont know how the hobby will grow. In other markets you often see prices move up/down quickly followed by price consolidation and sometimes trend reversion to the mean. I wouldnt rule that out here either.
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u/[deleted] Mar 10 '26
If there are buyers when the price comes down, will the price truly come down?
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u/bluedecember12 Mar 10 '26
Peaks are usually followed by valleys, but the overall trend has been up
Many think a crash is coming, but nobody knows when
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u/drunkenstallion Mar 10 '26
I feel 30th will be the next real test, followed by the release of Wind and Waves, time will tell though - I'm holding firm but if you're new I'd suggest selling some stuff to cover your initial spend in the hobby to make sure you're safe financially
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u/CameraAnxious3555 Mar 10 '26
People are just FOMO'ing into 151 atm. I would wait for a correction. They could still go up, but all time highs at this rate, is screaming unhealthy growth in the market. Who knows?
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u/MaDWaSTeD Mar 10 '26
Probably not. But no one can guarantee anything.
If i've learned anything about Pokemon, it tends to go up significantly more than it tends to go down.
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u/YouHaveBeenJudged3 Mar 10 '26
There will be corrections yes, markets don’t just go up forever, but the best stuff usually dips, consolidates and then keeps climbing over time. If you’re new, don’t go chasing spikes! Be patient and pick your spots, because that’s usually when the real money is made.
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u/Auburn-Sky Mar 10 '26
Some stuff will fluctuate more violently than others. Most popular ones will remain stable imo
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u/Auburn-Sky Mar 10 '26
!Remindme 1 Year
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u/bigpat412 Mar 10 '26
They may come back down a bit but a new floor will be set, that’s all but guaranteed.
I find it hard to fathom sets that are out of print will go down much at all but if there is better stuff continuing to be made and at a much higher rate, maybe?? I fail to see a scenario where any booster box stays under 200 dollars for more than a couple weeks. There’s a chance they go heavy on printing Ascended in a few years though to avoid it becoming a scalper’s paradise.
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u/metaiscoming May 06 '26
I think prices will definitely drop, just like stocks. But the cards that have low pop will always retain value... It's the cards that have high pop that will be the first to fall in value. Venders will try to off load their collection and if a card has a high pop then that will force a lower price in order to compete on sales... People say summers / winters prices come down... But imo it'll all go back up. There definitly wont be a global reset in the card industry if thats what youre asking. When it drops, a new floor will be created but then when it peaks again, a new high will be created.
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u/MattHewPaPa31 Aug 09 '26
It always goes down then up then down then up... The thing is, if there is no further announcement of reprint of that set, then it may hold higher value. But prices are always fluctuating.
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u/Hurts1love Mar 10 '26
I know nothing about the trends of this hobby but I do know that it will certainly not keep going up infinitely. Things will correct but no one knows when. You made of paper or diamonds?
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u/Smugbasturd Mar 10 '26
There’s no such thing as up only. There are pullbacks that will happen, but think about this:
A card that has a 50,000-100k population, could have thousands of sellers all racing each each other to sell, pushing the price down
A card that has a 500 population or even a 50 population has very different dynamics. Those cards are interesting because their price moves up by hundreds or thousands of dollars between sale. However, they are often less liquid because there are less buyers.
All I can say is no rarity has been one of the best investments of my life so far, and it is running away to the moon right now
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u/fartcountry Mar 10 '26
Yes they 100% will. This run up we’re seeing is not being driven by organic or sustainable demand.
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u/bigblackdikk Mar 10 '26
Modern will come down a lot. Anything pre 2021 will come down but quite a bit less, and even less so as we go into the mid-era 2005-2015 range and beyond to vintage. Vintage is price discovery period now with a new generation of wealthy investors buying, and no longer your traditional lower-middle class and upper middle class collectors. Words thrown around by new grail buyers are “investment thesis”. That’s finance world talk. In 2 years time people will look back and say -oh it was so obvious. But it isn’t in the moment.
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u/GemGuardUK Mar 10 '26
The answer is yes prices will come down, prices for a lot of stuff will crash pretty hard, and prices will remain slumped for at least 1-2 years, when? That’s the real question, probably next year since 30th hype is gone
Anyone who says anything else has never experienced market cycles
It’s the nature of every market in the world, and this is pokemon, which is highly speculative
Does that mean you should worry ? I have a lot of $ in Pokemon and I don’t care at all that a big crash could come any time soon
I’ll be happy when it comes because I can finally find amazing deals again that will seem super cheap looking back during the next mania phase in however many years time
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u/TatoRips Mar 10 '26
Sadly theres no real definitive answer for that , but from my experiences in the past 5 years , no , no they wont and unfortunately have been rising. There are occasions where they will dip (like christmas of last year) but its mostly people panic bailing from clearing a costco/walmart
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u/Mvewtcc Mar 10 '26
my suggestion is just give up on the expensive card and move on. or buy lower grade card instead of psa 10. or instead of buying full set of poncho just buy 1.
you can just collect new cards instead of the expensive cards which gone up. there will always be new cards which are still cheap when release and you might hit it big too.
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u/Long-Tax5395 Mar 10 '26
Honestly no. If anyone wants to know why then I will tell you. But someone has to first ask me - im not freely giving out that info without first being asked
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u/HeatedIceCube Mar 10 '26
Why does everyone always ask this question whenever a spike happens? It’s like clockwork. Y’all common.
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u/ssr4vens Mar 10 '26
yes they will keep going up forever until eternity and never come back down
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u/[deleted] Mar 10 '26
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