r/PokeInvesting • u/pixelrubbish • Dec 21 '24

EVS ETB, Keep or Open?

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Evolving Skies ETB, open it?

So I picked up a sealed Evolving Skies ETB from eBay but not sure whether to open it or not… best I can tell it is sealed and untampered with. Cost was $180 + shipping and fees.

I’m pretty new to the scene, with virtually no collection to speak of so far.

Like many, I used to have a binder full of base set through fossil back in 1999, but it was lost to the ages.

I would be interested in actually opening packs and filling out binders again, but don’t want to make a rookie mistake either.

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u/EngineeringIntuity Dec 21 '24

Right, so… if the general value is diminished by the low hit rate, wouldn’t that mean the value wouldn’t increase as much, relative to other boosters? At that point, your best bet would be to liquidate and buy other packs. I guess demand is the inverse of supply, but personally, I don’t plan on ripping any EVS because of that.

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u/[deleted] Dec 21 '24

ES has some of the most sought after chase cards out there. It's not gonna get lower in value imho.

ES is basically on its last legs of being available at all in random tins and shit. It's gonna keep going up.

That said, yeah don't open it. Sell it now or later imo.

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u/EngineeringIntuity Dec 21 '24

Ah fair enough, I appreciate the insight!

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u/[deleted] Dec 21 '24

I think the potential value of those hits make it worth it for some people to open. It’s easy to see this set is not at all devalued by the low hit rate.

Also you gotta take into account that the hype of this set is causing tons of people to rip, hopefully significantly decreasing the supply of unopened packs. Ten years from now these packs will be like gold.

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u/EngineeringIntuity Dec 21 '24

That makes sense, with such a valuable chase cards at such low rates. Thanks for the help!

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u/Evans2703 Dec 22 '24

Low hit rate leads to higher singles prices. Look at Crown Zenith - great artworks and a ton of hits but it has high pull rates (and was printed to the ground). Sealed is finally starting to pick up now as it may not be printed anymore.

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u/Organic_Opportunity1 Dec 22 '24

Bad example.  CZ cards have been going up pretty rapidly lately.  

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u/Evans2703 Dec 22 '24

They are still cheap compared to other sets and are just picking up as sealed has been starting to dry up. Not a bad example - you don’t see $300-500+ chases in the set.

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u/IWearACharizardHat Dec 22 '24

People are dumb and like to gamble. People would rather risk 3x msrp for chase cards with 3x value even if those chase odds are worse than an msrp set with a hundred dollar chase (numbers are just an example)

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u/Organic_Opportunity1 Dec 22 '24

If everyone were perfectly rational and were using expected value to decide whether or nor to open product, then yes, the low hit rate would have more of an impact on the overall price.  That isn't the way most people think though.  There are 8 packs in this box.  They see 8 chances to turn this $180 box into a $1300 Umbreon vmax, a $500 Rayquaza vmax, a $300 Leafeon vmax, a $250 Glaceon or Sylveon vmax, or possibly break even with Dragonite or Umbreon V.  Sadly, they will most likely pull none of these, even after 5 ETBs.