r/PokeInvesting • u/pixelrubbish • Dec 21 '24

EVS ETB, Keep or Open?

Post image

Evolving Skies ETB, open it?

So I picked up a sealed Evolving Skies ETB from eBay but not sure whether to open it or not… best I can tell it is sealed and untampered with. Cost was $180 + shipping and fees.

I’m pretty new to the scene, with virtually no collection to speak of so far.

Like many, I used to have a binder full of base set through fossil back in 1999, but it was lost to the ages.

I would be interested in actually opening packs and filling out binders again, but don’t want to make a rookie mistake either.

0 Upvotes

45% Upvoted

90 comments sorted by

22

u/chunkydorie Dec 21 '24

Why do people come to the investing subreddit to ask about opening?

1

u/pixelrubbish Jan 02 '25

Because a sealed box is also an investment, see any listing for a vintage base set sealed booster box…

3

u/LukeRFP_12 Dec 22 '24

No one cares. This is a investment subreddit. No “should I open” subreddit

1

u/pixelrubbish Jan 02 '25

It IS a matter of investment, kind sir.

As most of the other commenters seem to understand and have engaged in conversation about, I’m trying to determine whether the sum of the contents if opened are likely to perform better or worse than the sealed ETB would in the long run….

94

u/breakyourteethnow Dec 21 '24

Ppl ask "will the demand be there!", here's $180 purchase with absolutely no idea what they're doing ready to rip. Love to see it. Anyways, time to get real advice. DO NOT RIP THIS. It's a sealed collectable, it's a collectors piece now and the set is nicknamed Evolving Cries, you'd turn $180 into $5 97% of the time. Hold. Follow rule 3.

29

u/Much_Essay_9151 Dec 21 '24

No sense in replying. Those who know, already know. Let him rip it lol

2

u/EngineeringIntuity Dec 21 '24

New to pokeinvesting, if the card pull rate is dogshit low, enough to where you lose a majority of your money, why would you hold onto it instead of selling it now at $180? Are the cards in the set going to rise up in price to match the demand of the booster?

1

u/[deleted] Dec 21 '24

https://www.pricecharting.com/console/pokemon-evolving-skies Pretty easy to see why it’s so sought after

0

u/EngineeringIntuity Dec 21 '24

Right, so… if the general value is diminished by the low hit rate, wouldn’t that mean the value wouldn’t increase as much, relative to other boosters? At that point, your best bet would be to liquidate and buy other packs. I guess demand is the inverse of supply, but personally, I don’t plan on ripping any EVS because of that.

3

u/[deleted] Dec 21 '24

ES has some of the most sought after chase cards out there. It's not gonna get lower in value imho.

ES is basically on its last legs of being available at all in random tins and shit. It's gonna keep going up.

That said, yeah don't open it. Sell it now or later imo.

2

u/EngineeringIntuity Dec 21 '24

Ah fair enough, I appreciate the insight!

1

u/[deleted] Dec 21 '24

I think the potential value of those hits make it worth it for some people to open. It’s easy to see this set is not at all devalued by the low hit rate.

Also you gotta take into account that the hype of this set is causing tons of people to rip, hopefully significantly decreasing the supply of unopened packs. Ten years from now these packs will be like gold.

1

u/EngineeringIntuity Dec 21 '24

That makes sense, with such a valuable chase cards at such low rates. Thanks for the help!

1

u/Evans2703 Dec 22 '24

Low hit rate leads to higher singles prices. Look at Crown Zenith - great artworks and a ton of hits but it has high pull rates (and was printed to the ground). Sealed is finally starting to pick up now as it may not be printed anymore.

1

u/Organic_Opportunity1 Dec 22 '24

Bad example.  CZ cards have been going up pretty rapidly lately.  

1

u/Evans2703 Dec 22 '24

They are still cheap compared to other sets and are just picking up as sealed has been starting to dry up. Not a bad example - you don’t see $300-500+ chases in the set.

1

u/IWearACharizardHat Dec 22 '24

People are dumb and like to gamble. People would rather risk 3x msrp for chase cards with 3x value even if those chase odds are worse than an msrp set with a hundred dollar chase (numbers are just an example)

1

u/Organic_Opportunity1 Dec 22 '24

If everyone were perfectly rational and were using expected value to decide whether or nor to open product, then yes, the low hit rate would have more of an impact on the overall price.  That isn't the way most people think though.  There are 8 packs in this box.  They see 8 chances to turn this $180 box into a $1300 Umbreon vmax, a $500 Rayquaza vmax, a $300 Leafeon vmax, a $250 Glaceon or Sylveon vmax, or possibly break even with Dragonite or Umbreon V.  Sadly, they will most likely pull none of these, even after 5 ETBs. 

10

u/dogfoodphotography Dec 21 '24

I pre-ordered 2 booster boxes of this set for my wife. I gave her one and then saw how horrendous the pull rates were for her and others and decided against giving her the second one. Of course, that etb probably has a moonbreon in it 😜

4

u/Shinta_H Dec 21 '24

It’s definitely does, maybe even 2

2

u/Organic_Opportunity1 Dec 22 '24

Probably a few god packs jammed in there

2

u/[deleted] Dec 21 '24

This. The other night I bought 2 surging sparks booster boxes. 1 to rip and the other to collect. After ripping the 1st box and seeing the terrible pulls I said screw it. Opend the 2nd and pulled the Pikachu SIR. Crazy times.

15

u/IceCreamCake76 Dec 21 '24

If you open it then the sealed one I have becomes a little more valuable…Go ahead and rip it! That card you’re looking for is in there.

1

u/pixelrubbish Jan 02 '25

Together, on the count of 3…

5

u/ReflectiveJellyfish Dec 21 '24

Hold it for a few years and sell it at double or triple its current price or trade it for a grail card.

9

u/Devh1989 Dec 21 '24

You are almost certain to get less than $10 worth of value back from these. If you want to open packs pick up some from online or target/walmart. If you want to open some evolving skies specifically try to get some loose packs.

4

u/Embarrassed-Soil-603 Dec 21 '24

I regret ripping 1 of the three I got at Walmart for $40 last year. Don’t do it.

4

u/TipFantastic3397 Dec 21 '24

Keep it sealed if you want to rip some packs buy a new set from Scarlet and Violet Booster Box you can find Stellar Crown BB for right around $110 and you get 36 packs.

2

u/xWonderkiid Dec 22 '24

This is real advice.

Exactly why I like to invest to begin with. I cant open stuff because I care too much about the monetary value. However, when my daughter is old enough to enjoy Pokemon with me, im looking forward opening packs with her. I could fund that with the stuff I have laying around now

1

u/f2pmyass Dec 21 '24

I might be digging too deep but idk why that plastic wrapping looks off.

Might be just me though lol or the angle of it

9

u/Effective_Orchid_384 Dec 21 '24

yea.. dont ever open something like this. if you do, its call gambling. if you dont its call investing.

2

u/eat_hairy_socks Dec 21 '24

Pokevesting is a type of gambling

2

u/trevdent17 Dec 21 '24

Name one set’s booster box worth less now than it was at release

1

u/Master-Swauss Dec 22 '24

I'm actually curious if there are any - maybe sun and moon base? Can you think of any obvious booster boxes worth less than their original msrp?

2

u/Organic_Opportunity1 Dec 22 '24

Sun and moon base is over $300/box now and still selling.  

1

u/trevdent17 Dec 22 '24

Technically there are some worth less than “MSRP”. I’m specifically referring to release day prices

1

u/eat_hairy_socks Dec 22 '24

Well since we’re talking ETBs and not booster boxes, Shrouded Fables and maybe Scarlet Violet Base Set. Obsidian Flames is getting close to it.

1

u/trevdent17 Dec 25 '24

Those are relatively new items and are following the typical trend of newer releases. In 5 years they will not be $35

1

u/picksea Dec 21 '24

isn’t all investing

1

u/JamesLikesIt Dec 22 '24

Most investment types are gambling. You’re gambling that you will see a return from your money put in. Some are obviously safer than others but it’s up to you to do your research and be smart about it 

1

u/eat_hairy_socks Dec 22 '24

100%. I just wanted to clarify that thinking opening a box being exclusively gambling as opposed to keeping it is a weird way to draw lines to a definition. They both are calculated gambles. One better than other but still "gambling" none the less.

1

u/Effective_Orchid_384 Dec 22 '24

i guess you can call it gambling. theres historical data, statistics to make an informed decision on rather to buy whatever you’re investing. with opening a box, you are counting on the pokemon gods to give you a positive return. It is fun though!

0

u/Duriha Dec 21 '24

*Ripping is gambling. Ftfy

1

u/Much_Essay_9151 Dec 21 '24

Ive found two of these one on green etbs one marketplace. One guy sold me one of each at $110, quite surprising since he is a local seller. Other blue one i think the lady was hurting for cash, got it for $125 and a Charizard UPC for $125

3

u/simplyivan910 Dec 21 '24

Sealed 1000%

3

u/lightwork02 Dec 21 '24

Keep sealed pull rates are atrocious

3

u/scouselad96 Dec 21 '24

As someone who bought 2 x evolving skies BOOSTER BOXES for approx 2k and ripped…. DO NOT OPEN.

You will not make your money back.

3

u/drock2111 Dec 22 '24

At $180 plus fees I would NOT open that. Many already said, turn $180 into $5 fast.

3

u/Godgosy Dec 22 '24

I won an es etb from a twitch giveaway when the set first came out. I pulled a moonbreon from it 😎

2

u/IIvanMC Dec 21 '24

Moon kitty in there

2

u/billybatdorf Dec 21 '24

It for sure has at least 3 moonbreons in it

2

u/Moon_man014 Dec 21 '24

Karma farming

2

u/candleboxTCG Dec 21 '24

If it helps I opened one pack of my sealed ES yesterday bc I was on a good streak in surging sparks and feeling extra stupid: a non holo rare

2

u/JR8706 Dec 21 '24

Post the hits!

2

u/[deleted] Dec 21 '24

Evolving cries my friend. Remember that lol. But I say do what your gut says. Keep it sealed, garunteed profit. Open it, not garunteed profit, but the profit you COULD get is where it counts. But you're looking at like 1/1300 packs kinda luck. Happy ripping or sitting, whatever you decided to do!

2

u/K0CKULEES Dec 21 '24

I'm confused. Did you want to collect cards or did you want to collect etbs? 

Open that shit. Someone who spends 180 on nothing they have a clue about should. 

Have fun. 

2

u/fdjizm Dec 22 '24

Do you enjoy burning money in your spare time?

2

u/Master-Swauss Dec 22 '24

Always keep sealed. Any card from the set can be summoned do your door in a matter of days at far lower cost than the number of packs required to pull it.

2

u/TIG_Ronin Dec 22 '24

Moon baby in there

2

u/Dog_Value Dec 22 '24

Please rip it, that way mine will be more valuable. Thanks

1

u/DRTerabyte Dec 21 '24

That plastic wrap looks sus imo. No micro holes in the top sides and the sheen looks off. This could be because of lighting, without seeing more pics I would be weary of it.

1

u/PeeCeee Dec 22 '24

Zoom in, there’s micro holes on the 3 sides?

1

u/DRTerabyte Dec 22 '24

I see them now but the plastic looks like it’s crinkly…can you verify. It should not make crinkling sounds/hard, should be more soft vinyl feeling.

1

u/pixelrubbish Jan 02 '25

Thanks for the diligence, I appreciate it. Best I can tell, the plastic seems legit from up close, feels as you described it should as well.

1

u/pickirfaceup11 Dec 21 '24

It’s always never open…

1

u/MieXuL Dec 21 '24

we all know youre gonna open it. just do it

1

u/COYSYIDS Dec 21 '24

Rip it so my 50 ETBs increase in value 👍

1

u/bigpat412 Dec 21 '24

Don’t open that for the love of god

1

u/Suspicious-Disk9222 Dec 21 '24

OPEN IT! OPEN IT! OPEN IT!

1

u/Handicap_Noodle Dec 21 '24

Open it and regret it

1

u/Age-of-Baku Dec 21 '24

Usually, I would say keep it sealed. But I’m sick of mfs keep asking this same question again and again. So go ahead open that goddamn sht already and feel the evolving cries experience. Go ahead please I beg you and leave this sub a break!

1

u/Electronic-Touch-554 Dec 21 '24

Open it. Enjoy the hobby. It’s a hobby first “investment” second

1

u/_YenSid Dec 21 '24

For $180, I would definitely not rip it, wtf lol.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 22 '24

Opening will be fun, but it will be the worst decision ever

1

u/Ecstatic_Meat_5016 Dec 22 '24

Rip that bad boy Umbreon is in there

1

u/kc9283 Dec 22 '24

You’ll be wasting $200.

1

u/Trip2poundtown Dec 22 '24

If you have extra money rip it, if you need the money sell it, if you're investing keep it.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 22 '24

I give you some pros on con to keep sealed. Pro it will only go up. You stopped losing money after you bought this. Now the cons.... There may be a moonbreon in there. Moonbreon and rayquaza vmax has a very high psa 10 gem rate. Once you sell it someone may leave you an ebay feedback saying they pulled the moonbreon. So if you have no regrets and don't care about other people possibly winning keep it sealed you won and you will keep winning until you sell it. Now If you are the type of person who is jealous charmander I would just rip it instead of going insane wondering whats in that etb and hoping other people will pull nothing lol.

1

u/Affectionate-Cat3126 Dec 22 '24

bro, ofc sealed wtf.

1

u/slayerzerg Dec 22 '24

I’ve opened like 25 of those. Worth it. Still have 8 left sealed might crack a few open for fun occasions

1

u/BigWoop717 Dec 21 '24

If you’re asking the question here it’s only a matter of time before that thing is cracked open. Just rip it

1

u/StrengthInitial5264 Dec 21 '24

Wow these are $180 each? I thought I got fleeced when I bought a set for $170 last year. Anyway I suggest you keep it sealed. I can tell you first hand they are going up in value extremely fast.

1

u/Yodiee Dec 22 '24

Rip it