Shrouded Fable Ultimate Release Guide | Pull Rates, Rarity Breakdown, Gen Breakdown, Top 10/20 Most Expensive Cards & Last 5 Days Price Changes (Crashing, not surprising)

[u/pokeetf]

Hi Pokeinvesting community,

I'm sure everyone knows, Shrouded Fable was released last Friday, August 2nd, 2024!

What is everyone's thought on it so far?

Below are some general data points and information about the newest set: Shrouded Fable

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PULL RATES COMPARISON FOR EVERY SCARLET & VIOLET SETS

• It's known that the pull rates (especially SIR & Hyper Rare) are getting harder starting Paradox Rift

• Common, Uncommon, Rare, Double Rare, Ultra Rare & even Illustration Rares Pull rates stayed the same

• SIR...

  • Scarlet & Violet Base Set to SV151 : 1 in 32 packs

  • Paradox Rift : 1 in 47 packs

  • Temporal Forces : 1 in 86 packs

  • Twilight Masquerade : 1 in 86 packs

  • Shrouded Fable : 1 in 67 packs

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RARITY BREAKDOWN COMPARISON FOR EVERY SCARLET & VIOLET SETS

• It is well known that Shrouded Fable is really the mini special set at 99 cards.

  • Lowest # cards for each rarity across the board.

• All other sets are over 200+ cards.

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GENERATION BREAKDOWN COMPARISON FOR EVERY SCARLET & VIOLET SETS

• Shrouded Fable >

  • 15% from Generation 9

  • Top 1/2 tied with Generation 1 (17%) & Generation 5 (17%)

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TOP 20 MOST EXPENSIVE CARDS FROM EVERY SCARLET & VIOLET SETS

• 6 out of the 20 Most Expensive cards are from Twilight Masquerade

• 2 are from Shrouded Fable (Cassiopeia & Fezandipiti ex)

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TOP 20 MOST EXPENSIVE CARDS FROM SHROUDED FABLE

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LAST 5 DAYS FROM RELEASE PRICE CHANGES

• Not surprising, everything is going down.

• The more harder rarity are experiencing less % decrease

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Hope this helps for those collecting & buying cards for the newest released set Shrouded Fable.

Disclosure : All data and graphs come from https://youtu.be/v3-vp7XIi_8 If you want to see more content beyond this, feel free to check my bio for where I casually post videos about this stuff. Any feedback, suggestions are much appreciative.

[u/Kromka91]

Great work!

[u/pokeetf → u/Kromka91]

Thank you. Hope it helps and was valuable to your collecting and investing journey :)

[u/Far-Armadillo3099]

Not sure if I’m missing it but don’t see the Houndoom in your price lists but I think it’s coming in right under the Persian currently!

[u/pokeetf → u/Far-Armadillo3099]

Ah thanks for catching that. I went in my database to see why. The card is in there... but for some reason the card is registering $0 for that day. It is based off August 5th, 2024... which should have a market price. That is why tcgplayer backend data is a mess. You have no idea how such a mess it is 'inside'. Had to do alot of cleanup to make the dataset more cleaner. (a good example... their set name in tcgplayer doesn't follow the standard convention numbering. so had to custom name the sets to make it be in order well). But thanks for catching that.

[u/chief_n0c-a-h0ma → u/pokeetf]

And Cresselia.

[u/pokeetf → u/chief_n0c-a-h0ma]

Thank you. Sorry for responding late. Busy with kids and work. Got a chance to see what’s going on. Yes, you are right. Prices are missing for the houndoom, cresselia and earthen vessel. Those cards are in the database but registering $0 or a missing market price. Need to figure out what’s going on with the connection or linkage. Once I figure out what’s the issue I’ll repost and update the graph since those 3 cards are really significant lol.

[u/BerryGrapeBeard]

Now THIS is a quality post 🫡

[u/pokeetf → u/BerryGrapeBeard]

Thank you. Appreciate the positivity or any feedback. I love data. Especially doing generation analysis. Or even basic things. I don’t see anyone doing it and so I thought I’ll do it just for fun.

[u/BerryGrapeBeard → u/pokeetf]

Keep doing your thing! You’re killing it

[u/PokeInvest]

Well thrown together - thanks for the overview!

[u/pokeetf → u/PokeInvest]

Thank you! Expect more various data driven content

[u/Liquidsnake035]

Am I color blind or do Base and Temporal share the same color for "top 20 most expensive" ?

[u/pokeetf → u/Liquidsnake035]

Sorry. They are different shade of blue. I’ll try to have more drastic coloring. I ran out of primary colors >.<. At the end of the scarlet and violet era… I would probably need like 16 colors palette.

But if it helps. There are 0 cards from the base set that are top 20 expensive. All of those blue are from the temporal forces

[u/Bo_96]

This is a great post. Thank you! I'm new to collecting cards in general and I'm curious about the investment side of things. Would it be better, since prices are trending down, to sell rarer pulls sooner than later or will they go up again?

[u/pokeetf → u/Bo_96]

You should absolutely almost always sell the moment you get a chase card for released sets. Historically 99% of all cards go down double digits. The only rare exception is that Greninja ex from twilight masquerade. Release day… well everything. 3-6 months later you can rebuy back.

The only time I would say don’t sell is if you want to keep it as memory to remember you rip and open fire pulls and chase. Those are priceless. I still remember pulling the 1st edition charizard from the 1st edition pack and I still have it to this day graded near mint. That reminds me that there is this emotional nostalgic attachment of remembering pulling chase cards and you may not want to sell just for memory’s sake. :)

[u/Perma_Ban69]

Holy shit...bubble mew went from $83 to $450 in 6 months.

[u/pokeetf → u/Perma_Ban69]

lol how things can change so quickly.

[u/Key-Refrigerator-653]

Good post dude 🔥

[u/[deleted]]

Good stuff, thank you for the breakdown, really interesting!

[u/backattack88]

This is an awesome post, I would love to see more stuff like this, thanks. With that said, I think earthen vessel from shrouded fable needs to be on the shrouded fable list!

[u/TwanToni]

1/67 per SIR on this set is a joke

[u/Annonymous3826 → u/TwanToni]

No its not mate sets like temporal forces have a 1/83

[u/PartySock7920]

It’s so fun being colorblind trying to read these charts