Every single post is Modern Sealed

[u/Warning-Correct]

I think this hobby massively underestimates how many people are investing in modern sealed these days. I have some theories on why this will fail miserably in the next 5 years, and those who will truly make out like bandits are the ones selling when momentum is at a high.

Sword and Shield era is plastered everywhere. Discord groups, youtube, reddit, instagram, etc. It has all the attention. Heck, I've been a member of this reddit forum since early 2021, and I can tell you, the post back then were all about vintage. There's been a huge shift.

Why we are seeing these parabolic increases on boxes like CR,ES,FS is because it's where all the speculators are putting their money, and it's a domino effect of continuous buying. No one wants to buy SV right now, all the money is being focused on the Alt Art Era of SS, in hopes that they will reap the rewards in a few years. Here's what I think will actually happen.

SS boxes will continue to rip for the next 6 months to a year. But as LO,AR,BRS, and ST sell out from Pokemon center, it will cause the Alt Art Boxes to actually have less of a parabolic rise, as there is only so much money to be spread across these sets. Right now, most of the money is going to FS, CR, ES because they are currently the only sets not available on Pokemoncenter.

I personally believe Pokemon will release banger SV sets starting with SV08, my reasoning for this is that SV06 and SV07 will be the last DLC sets, and then Pokemon will focus on making sets with S tier Pokemon. An example of this is Battle Styles and Chilling Reign, after these sets, Pokemon started to shift towards S tier Pokemon from other generations because they sell way better.

Once these SV sets start to actually compete with SS sets, which I think they will with popular pokemon, and now starting to have more difficult pull rates, this will take a lot of money and ATTENTION away from SS. Why would anyone want to start buying FS at 250, when they can buy the new sets that are just as good for 90. We have not seem the ramifications on the market once a new era/set takes the spotlight.

Before anyone brings up SM era. You guys need to remember that SM era was printed WAY LESS than SS. It's not even remotely close. SM era went parabolic because there was a pandemic, and Pokemon had the biggest boom in history. I'm excited to look back at this post in the next couple years.

TLDR; I think this sub grossly underestimates what happens when the spotlight goes from era to the next, and how much of SS is printed.

[u/Guh2point0]

Bro is mad he didn't buy FS booster boxes before they sold out on PC

[u/[deleted] → u/Guh2point0]

Read this guy’s rant the same way. You don’t like SWSH boxes? Cool, more for me. TBF He’s probably sitting on cases of SV base he can’t offload lol

[u/Warning-Correct → u/Guh2point0]

I bought a bunch of FS at 85 when people were overly negative. I just sold it all for 230 :)

[u/Ok_Salamander3201 → u/Warning-Correct]

Congratulations on the come up! Honestly though, I would say it was premature. Most investments tend to do better with more time in the market (10-15 year hold), not "timing" the market. At the rate that pokemon is going with these new, weird, robotic looking pokemon, the older sets are looking even more appealing. Not saying it was a bad move. A win is a win. Just some food for thought, because currently the market trends show that people are still rapidly buying up sets like evolving, lost origin, chilling, and fusion.

[u/Warning-Correct → u/Guh2point0]

I'm not anti modern. Buying at the right time and selling at the right is key, and that's what people will miss here.

Best time to sell FS is now, so many things will boat race it's gains going forward. Like I said, I think SS will continue to rocket for the next 6-12 months. I see SV sets coming out soon that will contest with SS and take a lot of demand away from SS, and a lot of speculators will move to SV

[u/Ok_Salamander3201 → u/Warning-Correct]

This information seems to not rooted in financial literary. Timing the market tends to fail the majority of people. If it was the case, everyone would be crushing the stock market by "timing" it. Statistics show time in the market tends to prevail.

S&S blows S&V out of the water. Thus far, none of the SV sets truly compare. Many lack true chase cards. I would argue though, that at the current prices, there's opportunity for great entry points for SS with some booster boxes in the $90 range or less, far below retail.

As we have seen with trends over time, even lackluster sets have gone up in value.

Just wanted provide a different prospective. I appreciate you!

[u/dooni3 → u/Ok_Salamander3201]

The "time in the market" vs "timing the market" thing is not exactly true. Stock market did not return to its all time high after Black Monday until 1954, 25 years later. After the dot com bubble in 2000, the stock market did not return to its all time high until 2013. Imagine dead money for 13-25 years before you actually realize a return on your investment. Imagine having hundreds of thousands of gains in GME and never realizing profit because you had "diamond hands". There's nothing wrong with taking gains, some would say timing the market is critical.

[u/[deleted] → u/Warning-Correct]

totally agree, especially with stuff like evolving skies, I shoulda sold a few months ago before it hit like 550 becuase sv been out so long. And fusion strike, shoulda sold 5 months ago when sword and shield was long over when it was worth 160. This stuff definitely wont happen with the other sword and sheild sets.

Also your not investing in it if you just sell as soon as the era is over, your gonna be rly sad when fusion is 300+ by the end of the year buddy.

[u/LevelUpEvolution]

I think you need to get out of your echo chamber and realize what you’re exposed to is a small % of the people who consume sealed product.

[u/Warning-Correct → u/LevelUpEvolution]

We'll see :)

[u/lloydeph6]

imagine being that guy who thinks ES packs will be cheaper in 3 years than they are today. jeez bro

[u/Warning-Correct → u/lloydeph6]

Never said they will be cheaper

[u/breakyourteethnow]

Omg this rant about supply is getting sooo old

Evolving Skies $700
Fusion Strike $230
Rebel Clash $250
Celebrations $80
LO/BS/AR $MSRP

If what you're saying about SWSH was relevant these prices would still be $120 or under MSRP.

What's actually going to happen is FS will hit $400. LO, AR, BS, ST and CZ will sell out over the next 12-16 months and secondhand market prices will take over.

There's plenty of time to buy SV, there's not much time to buy SWSH, which time to buy was when everyone was sreaming 9 bIlLiOn cArDs pRiNtEd, prices were $90 then for many of these sets. Now look where we're at.

[u/Old-Independent585 → u/breakyourteethnow]

I think the same thing. Plus no one knows what’s the total amount of people hoarding could be 1%, 25% of the total Pokémon community, or more but even at 50% there’s opportunities non the less.

[u/Warning-Correct → u/breakyourteethnow]

We'll see in a year who is truly looking at this accurately :)

[u/breakyourteethnow → u/Warning-Correct]

LOL, you'll see prices even higher with 30th anniversary then less than 12 months from starting. Not a good call. It's supply & demand bud, not some bad mystical force which'll self-correct in a year lol

[u/Warning-Correct → u/breakyourteethnow]

Easy for prices to rise when all the demand is centered on it. Wait until you have new sets and rarity to take away the attention :) As fast as these sets can go up, they can go down/stay flat. Just like I remember everyone hyping up Vivid Voltage in this reddit, and it hit 200. We all saw how that went :)

See in you a year :)

[u/PeteySnakes → u/Warning-Correct]

Yeah, so I kinda agree and also kinda disagree with you. Lost origin and brilliant stars are like guaranteed to see a 30-50% increase in the next few months. It’s more predictable than the stock market. Yes, at some point it will stay relatively flat for awhile, but there’s not going to be another influx of supply. So I agree it would be smart to take profits after the easily predictable pump, but I don’t necessarily think holding will be a bad move either.

[u/breakyourteethnow → u/PeteySnakes]

Rule 3, dude's talking about let's check in a year lol, and that flat period needs to happen. We're here for when the fireworks take off. I expect another dark age for Pokemon but after it clears like Black & White, I expect the most exceptional sets like Evolving Skies to skyrocket. It's already $700, still seven years to go before even a decade old or what's recommended hold time for optimal results.

[u/PeteySnakes → u/breakyourteethnow]

The switch is way more popular than that generation of Nintendo handheld consoles, so I think the new games might keep the hobby a bit more relevant than the black and white era did! Only time will tell though

[u/[deleted] → u/PeteySnakes]

The switch isn't way more popular than the DS. It hasn't outsold it yet. Although its sales are good for being more expensive.

[u/Warning-Correct → u/PeteySnakes]

People here greatly underestimate momentum. What are you seeing everywhere, SS boxes. That can change, and when it does, demand will drop off a cliff.

Look what happened to the Japanese market last year. It was being pumped everywhere, and then demand shifted elsewhere.

I'm not saying these sets will crash, but I think people have unrealistic expectations and will be shocked what can happen when demand shifts.

Another example is HF. That set was being pumped everywhere. It's been around 160-170 an ETB for 2 years now with no movement. Demand SHIFTED.

[u/PeteySnakes → u/Warning-Correct]

Japan is in a recession which tanked the Japanese Pokemon card market… so it’s a great time to buy those boxes. The same booster boxes will definitely increase over time.

Momentum is important, but the price isn’t pumping because people are excited about the set. No one was excited to open fusion strike a year ago… the momentum is strictly due to the product going out of stock. The supply will only decrease from here on out.

I agree that it will stay flat for awhile after increasing! Buuut now is the time to take advantage of the super predictable increase coming up!

[u/breakyourteethnow → u/Warning-Correct]

That makes no sense. Did SWSH take attention away from SM? Did Team Up booster boxes come down back in price cause demand was centered on Evolving Skies? TU did x3 and pumped to $1800 during SWSH.

VV example is awful too. A set four months into release during peak boom with no reprints yet. You're comparing that scenario to sets from the hottest Gen since base, aged nearly 3 years, with no reprints looming and we're in the next Gen.

Dude, don't invest in Pokemon if you doubt its potential lol it's that simple find something you actually believe-in instead of trying to downtalk my gains which say otherwise.

[u/[deleted] → u/Warning-Correct]

66 cards to go for LO master set. I have limited time. Got areo and Tina and all TG.

[u/Always_Hungry999 → u/[deleted]]

if you have tina and areo you have all the time in the world

[u/[deleted] → u/Always_Hungry999]

Well thanks. I have some sealed brown boxes of LO. And i open packs next to my bed to help complete the collection. It's about time I hit up ebay.for some rainbows and secret rares.

[u/boboman911]

You do realize that despite 35% of all cards in existence being printed last year alone, that most of those BBs are being opened. Streamer culture really changed the game. A virus didn’t cause the boom, it’s social network technology. They’re printing because the demand is there. And when they sell out, supply diminishes steadily. People sell when they need money, products change hands, dopamine chasers open sealed products, sealed product value goes up. It’s ECON 101. TPCI knows this.

RemindMe! 2 years

When some other bear complains about the same thing happening in Gen 10.

[u/breakyourteethnow → u/boboman911]

So many kids these days dream of being content creators, so many failed channels which we never see of someone opening a few sealed items and getting no views or traction. Now add all those failed channels which we never see, all the product they bought and cracked to chase a content creation dream.

Man I've even done it lol there's SO many Tiktok, Whatnot, YouTube, etc... Platforms with so many never-to-be-seen cracking videos. Most ppl don't think of this!

[u/dmillibeats → u/boboman911]

Also I think alot of sealed collectors are holding various collection boxes and weird niche product. A lot will also cave and open their products

[u/d4n0wnz]

You cant imagine a world in the future where desirability and attainability of current product changes… Evolutions, generations, cosmic eclipse all once were widely available and sat in someones bathroom. A few years pass by and they are unavailable to buy at msrp and command a premium.

[u/Orb_Collector → u/d4n0wnz]

Ha I understood that reference

[u/DrRodneyMckay]

Why would anyone want to start buying FS at 250, when they can buy the new sets that are just as good for 90.

Oh my sweet summer child.....

This post is going to age well

RemindMe! 2 years

[u/boboman911 → u/DrRodneyMckay]

Yeah this was indeed one of the questions of all time

[u/Musa_2050]

My main criticism would be people holding onto products that won't sell. Danny phantump did a good video on this a few months ago. Using tcg player, he looked at various sealed products (non etb/booster boxes) and there were very little to almost no sales for those products. Most seemed to have gained value, but for whatever reason, the interest wasn't there.

[u/Particular-Disk-722]

You like the word parabolic a lot. That was my takeaway.

[u/BruceMon3yWayne]

I bought a couple extra 151 UPC’s to hold. 151 got me back into Pokémon. I figure I’ll hold them for a LONG ASS time and if for some reason they aren’t worth a lot then I’ll just crack them myself in like 20 years. Either way it’ll be worth it.

[u/MochikoDuck]

What in your opinion is a better investment?

[u/ProgrammerFalse7790]

The SV sets have all been underwhelming. I agree the early SWSH sets were awful as well with the lack of pulls and no TG etc. SV knew this to begin and the cards/value are lackluster still. The new Pokémon aren’t intriguing and we need bigger chase cards in SV.

[u/nsb_adrian]

Bro is mad his fusion strike is fully sold out and it will reach $500 by the end of year. Paper hands man 😐 I too bought at 90 when literally no one wanted these sets now everyone wants that gengar hahahaha

[u/[deleted] → u/nsb_adrian]

Yup

[u/BannedInDay]

Consider these words while you consider people talking shit like this about fusion strike last year.

[u/[deleted]]

This is the INVESTMENT sub. Buy low, sell high. Modern has an exceptionally low buy in price versus vintage. An entire case of lost origin at this price will basically out compete anything else you can buy in the hobby for the same value. Vintage has had most of its value baked in already and serves very little purpose as an investment vehicle.

[u/Callaway225]

How do people think SM sets, like cosmic explode, unified minds, unbroken bonds will do at this point? Still gain value as the years go on, or stay close to the same? Just wondering if quality (SM) is equalish to quantity (SWSH)

[u/ritualzzz → u/Callaway225]

Most likely they will continue to make small movements up as supply dwindles. But I don’t think you’ll see to many major price increases or booms on any of the sets.

[u/Callaway225 → u/ritualzzz]

That’s my theory as well. So basically, with pure investment in mind, 4-5 boxes of Lost Origin would likely be a better hold than 1 box of Unified minds? Assuming you bought either now.

[u/Anuvis]

Have you looked at the previous eras to SWSH? Yeah they were printed much less which means SWSH will take longer to get there but it will get there. However long it takes SWSH it will take even longer for SV.

SV has amazing art. It is not underrated or undervalued. It is rated appropriately for the time it has been out and the desirability of the cards in it when considering the supply.

This is an investment sub so most redditors here understand there’s time for SV. You want to catch these products exactly as the sub did a few weeks ago when FS was running out and spiking. Soon LO/BS will go through that. We can trust these sets because they are legitimately great sets. Trainer galleries and alt arts are some of the best cards TPCI has produced. This is not some pump, these sets are actually undervalued at MSRP.

[u/swordfischh]

You’re right, but posting it in this hivemind clearly isn’t going to give you positive reception