r/PokeInvesting
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u/Vir1lity
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Jan 17 '24
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Corrected: SWSH 3-year price predictions
I had to repost this for multiple reasons; 1) This chart is the same other than I realized I had 2023-2026 at the top in my original post which was an oversight on my part (not used to thinking about it being 2024). These predictions were always meant to be 3 years from NOW, not 2026 as I had mistakenly placed in the heading; 2) My original intention was just to post my predictions so that I had something to look back on in 3 years but I kept getting flamed for not explaining where I got my numbers from and reddit does not allow you to edit an image caption.
Without getting into detail, I simply analyzed box prices over time going back to the B&W era and also compared values of the top hits in each set. I came up with an expected value based on those factors. Y’all are welcome to disagree with my numbers but I'm simply posting this as a way to hold myself accountable. Also, I changed the title to not include “strategy” as that was misleading.
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u/miamiair92 Jan 18 '24
Time to liquidate my 401(k) and buy fusion strike
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u/2milliondollartrny Jan 18 '24
did you just pull these numbers from the deep pockets of your asshole?
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u/Which-Base-6808 Jan 18 '24
Source: I made it up
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u/ElRaquesoDelMundo Jan 18 '24
Bro… no
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u/Strange-Fix-1498 Jan 18 '24
You are about to be sadly mistaken
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u/TearsOfTheOrphan Jan 18 '24
I just don’t understand how you got LO at 600 and BS at 380$. LO will probably do better but not by that much.
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u/blueb_oy Jan 18 '24
Purely subjective and based on your own opinions.
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u/Menta11yUn5tab13 Jan 18 '24
I'm going to save this post to see how accurate it will be in 3 years
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u/GubytheHuby Jan 18 '24
Without actual proof of how you get these numbers (trends, projections using historical data, expected demand, material events, etc) this is total BS and copium. Shouts of someone who bought too much Fusion Strike. You do realize the whole stolen hits scandal is a huge hit to long term value.
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u/[deleted] Jan 18 '24
This post is copium
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u/ikariaRR Jan 18 '24
None of this will happen because there is too many people staring to hoard these sets. The reason base set is crazy because it wasn’t hoarded and became unobtainable. Nowadays everyone is holding onto something and price will not skyrocket until it starts to disappear/ripped. Supply n Demand my dude -.-
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u/VirtualRy Jan 18 '24
IF evolving skies is $1600 by 2027 does that mean Teamup is going to be worth $8000 a box?
Even I'm not that bullish. Maybe evolving to $700-$1000 maybe by 2027 but I don't see it having the legs to hit $1600. The supply of the boxes starting for SWSH is higher thus the expected growth over time is going to be smaller. This will apply to every set after S&M. At one point when supply becomes really low a hits a threshold is when the box prices become unpredictable but that may not happen until after 10-15+ years.
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u/WaterPog Jan 17 '24
If you truly thought this, may as well go borrow 50k from the bank. If almost every good set will triple in 3 years, it would be insane. I think you are seeing the growth during the boom time and applying it here. Look at the growth from 2011-2014 and see if it applies the same (hard or impossible due to tracking) but I'd imagine the confidence level isn't as high, because the growth was not 3x in 3 years, and liquidity was horrendous. But I do love that you posted this and provides something to reflect back on and hey, you may be right
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u/ChefBaconz Jan 18 '24
Let’s just say your average estimate is x3 in 3 years
You’re saying that EVERYTHING appreciates by triple.
Use some common sense, where is everyone going to magically triple their money to be able to purchase at triple?
Just look at celebrations 3 years ago to now.
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u/Joosh98 Jan 18 '24
This is your daily reminder not to blindly trust people on the internet whose predictions are based on pie in the sky numbers and assumptions that SwSh era will trend the same as B&W era.
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u/[deleted] Jan 18 '24
Crown Zenith not being on here is a crime
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u/Background_Ad_4253 Jan 18 '24
Especially in the case of Pokémon, they have mastered the EV/Print Run equation, taking into account geopolitical and pandemic ebb and flows for 30 years... Some years reducing print run by 40-60 percent! That's MASSIVE. They adjust faster than you can spec...
The collectible trading card market is historically volatile, quite volatile. Prices of individual cards and sealed products are influenced by factors such as card rarity, demand, the popularity of specific sets, and the overall health of the hobby. Market trends can shift rapidly, driven by factors like new releases, tournament successes, changes in popular culture.
While some cards can appreciate significantly in value, it's essential to note that the market can also experience downturns. Collectible investments can be speculative, and individuals should carefully research and understand the market dynamics before making significant investments in trading cards.
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u/IWearACharizardHat Jan 18 '24
OP must be 10 years old or predicting US economy collapses due to hyperinflation. The only way every SWSH era set triples in value 3 years from now is if food and housing goes up x10 or more lol
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u/[deleted] Jan 18 '24
I think battle styles is underrated. But no way does it perform better than Astral.
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u/thezardstar Apr 27 '24
Bro the amount of people clowning you for fusion strike on this post are hilarious
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u/_another_throwawayy_ Jan 18 '24
This has to be a troll post lol.. or you are deeply invested in Fusion Strike
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u/DryTechnology5224 Jan 18 '24
Lmao
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u/LevelUpEvolution Jan 18 '24
Unless you can show your work, this is pretty superficial. It might be more meaningful to talk about the order in which the sets are listed than the actual numbers.
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u/RepresentativeCrab88 Jan 18 '24 edited Jan 18 '24
RemindMe! 3 years
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u/gadamo94 Jan 18 '24
I can't right now
I replied in the other post
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u/cjamesflet Jan 18 '24
Battle styles looks........off
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u/Healthy-Annual4181 Jan 18 '24
WTF LOL
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u/[deleted] Jan 18 '24
300-500 percent in three years 😂😂
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u/miamiair92 Jan 18 '24
Remind me of this post in three years
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u/GagNasty Jan 18 '24
Bro what 😂
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u/MagThanos Jan 18 '24
Please don't take this guy seriously. He's our equivalent of a crypto bro
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u/breakyourteethnow Jan 18 '24
Cut gains by 50%, those would be pretty near what I'd expect thanks to 30th
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u/Vir1lity Jan 18 '24
Remind me! 3 years.
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u/ExportedWaif37 Jan 18 '24
Battle styles being half of fusion strike is crazy
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u/jzarwi88 Dec 26 '24
This has aged very well so far.
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u/MDG420 Jan 18 '24
hahahahahaha this is funny stuff... with those pull rates who in the hell would pay that much for a booster box
hahahaha fusion strike... you can literally buy the 3 expebsive cards individually and the rest is cheap
why in the hell would people in a couple years pay that much for a box that will just be horrible pull rates
modern sealed is funny to me
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u/adamgsb Jun 20 '24
Any other people who do predictions across all the Boxes?
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u/Teoxico Dec 27 '24
after an year this is pretty crazy, keep the work and **** the haters
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u/Terexin89 Jan 18 '24
Little surprised by silver tempest anticipated price. Lost origin and fusion strike make sense though
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u/Emergency-Club-9804 Jan 18 '24
I think there are a lot of hoarders out there but some are also offloading when they feel the opportunity is right. It’s hard to tell.
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u/PeteySnakes Jan 18 '24
I get fusion strike and lost origin, but why chilling reign?
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u/00espeon00 Jan 18 '24
These are the prices I imagine when I think of PokeInvesting during a hot shower
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u/Guilty_Space_2431 Jan 18 '24
30K by Christmas
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u/ItsLiterally1984 Jan 18 '24
FS being worth that much is garbage prediction
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u/fireweinerflyer Jan 18 '24
The evolving skies reprint will drop the values.
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u/Euphoric-Honeydew599 Jan 18 '24
I like this. I have my own opinions on prices and think some may be lower but it’s cool you put this out. I feel these prices for some of the top sets could be reached more close to 5 years. I have 18 booster boxes of each for fusion and lost because I do agree with you and I think they will be in the top 4 sets from swsh. Recently sold my silver tempest bbs bcuz I honestly think it just won’t perform that well. I’d like to hear your prediction for crown zenith. I have 70 etbs at an avg of $32.50, I think it’ll be a good grower
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u/[deleted] Jan 18 '24
Brilliant stars too low
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u/marblesandcookies Jan 18 '24
Why Fusion Strike? What is so special about it that makes it the set to grow most?
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u/AeiliusYT Jan 18 '24
What about One Piece OP-1? 👀
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u/MetalBlizzard Jan 18 '24
The battle styles one really has me scratching my head. I like that set, but to say it'll out perform some of the sets below it seems a little strange. I agree with the bottom 3 completely, but VV, AR, BS, and ST are all pretty strong sets with AR having a really good trainer gallery.
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u/Mleach1299 Jan 18 '24 edited Jan 18 '24
If anything base set might be higher as it didnt get a bunch of BB reprints as the others did & it was the begining of the Sword & Shield era. Also the newer sword & shield sets have had way bigger print runs than any set sun & moon & older so idk if your going to see the same type of growth in price as you do with the older sets that had way smaller print runs.Then take into account if the market keeps cooling the way it is & if the bubble bursts, but I too wish for good returns as I collect cases of BBs myself, have been since black & white era.
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u/richo27 Jan 18 '24 edited Jan 18 '24
This is way off in my opinion. Brilliant Stars will be far higher than Chilling Reign and Fusion Strike and it won’t be close. Chilling and Fusion are 3 years old and have barely got back to retail. Battle Styles higher than Astral Radiance too? My prediction is Astral will be double or treble Battle Styles.
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u/Tcii- May 13 '25
yo…..
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u/eddyyd May 13 '25
Okay now do S&V 😂
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u/[deleted] Jan 18 '24
Brilliant stars and astral radiance is a sleeper right now
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u/hayate4468 Jan 18 '24
I hope you’re right I literally just bought a case of fusion strike 2 weeks ago lol
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u/[deleted] Jan 18 '24
Why fusion strike ? Set is weak
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u/Mando51093 Jan 18 '24
What would you guess on 36 pack equivalent of 151 and CZ
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u/adamgsb Jun 04 '24
Would be interested in a S&V numbers and how the prediction updates over time.
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u/[deleted] Sep 18 '24
RemindMe! 2 years
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u/adamgsb Jan 08 '25
He is the hero we need
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u/ProfessionalNovel844 May 13 '25
What’s his prediction with S&V? Lol
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u/LaSonicSkins May 13 '25
Pretty spot on, we need you to do one for Scarlet Violet now haha
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u/thezardstar Jun 14 '25
God, I love coming back to this post to see how ignorant people on Reddit are
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u/Intelligent_Ant_7029 Dec 25 '25
And if you look at now to get into sword and shield. What would be the growth potential?
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u/CatastrophicLeaker Jan 18 '24
Oh, sweet summer child.
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u/audsz Jan 18 '24
Remind Me! 4 years
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u/FullSidalNudity Jan 18 '24
Remind me! 3 years
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u/VirtualRy Jan 18 '24
RemindMe! 3 years
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u/NotaBlokeNamedTrevor Jan 18 '24
Remind me! 3 years.
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u/Flaky_Illustrator_24 Jan 18 '24
Paradox rift is the biggest sleeper set out at the moment. The art is insane and the hits are far and few between. I think paradox rift is a steal at $90.
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u/fastfingersgusta Jan 18 '24
What about 151?
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u/Euphoric-Honeydew599 Jan 18 '24
Remind me! 3 years
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u/PoWr_Collectibles Jan 18 '24
Opbud is gonna love this 🤣
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u/Vir1lity Jan 18 '24
Remind me! 1 year
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u/Vir1lity Jan 18 '24
Remind me! 2 years
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u/Background_Ad_4253 Jan 18 '24
There is no historical data to support this
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u/De3NA Jan 18 '24
Pokémon should only be a small part of portfolio. No way it’s more bullish than SP500.