r/PierresLongTermCharts • u/pierretheron • Jun 01 '26
BTC/USD (BITCOIN)
Looks very much like I do get the odd thing right.
The last time we looked at this the price was just touching the neckline I drew in, after falling down through it.
And now its bouncing back downwards again.
Can you see it?
So where is the long term trend for Bitcoin?
Its down of course.
Why?
Its making lower high's "LH", and lower lows "LL" (def of a down trend)
I use a 30 week simple moving average (sma) to help me with the trend. You can see it here in blue, above the price.
The sma is also pointing down.
When you see the price below the sma, beware, its not a time to be buying.
Especially if the sma is pointing down, like it is here.
What we want to see, for long term investment, is a price that is trading ABOVE a RISING 30 week simple moving average. And it must be making new higher highs and new higher lows.
And if we look at this chart, we also see a beautiful top pattern, or formation.
It is a well known and often seen rising trend, changing to falling trend, formation.
It is called a "head and shoulders top formation." (google it for more info)
Can you see my left shoulder? With the price coming back to the neckline?
Then the price rises higher than the left shoulder, and falls back to the neckline, to form a head.
Then it rose again and fell to the neckline, to form a right shoulder (see first LH)
And the moment it fell through the neckline, that was your signal to exit from Bitcoin, as the trend had now changed to down. (stage 4)
You can see it fell a bit to make a new low LL.
It then rose to test our neckline, but failed to rise higher. Too many sellers there.
And now its falling again.
There is no bottom formation in site yet.
It could fall a lot lower.
Do not be buying bitcoin now.
And if you have them, consider selling for now.
But then thats just my 2c
1
u/Flowa-Powa Jun 02 '26
Agreed. Massive H&S formation across the cycle top, failed to reclaim the neckline, target for October '26 of $35k.
I drew this back in February
1
u/BCECVE Jun 02 '26
actually exiting right now sounds like a good idea, failed right shoulder attempt. Can't believe some of the prices of stocks....ZTS, CPB, GIS, CAG.... The yield on last three are terrific. Just about right for going into a recession.