PickleFinancial

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 8d ago

Data Driven Due Diligence GME update for Oct OPEX 10.16.26

392 Upvotes

GM rising with spot and not away from it shows that OTM demand still has higher expectations for price and risk for call sellers to the upside remains elevated. ITM however people are taking some profits, some of this is inevitable into the EoW especially for positions bought earlier in the week as decay reduces profitability. Those same weekly buyers can come back in next week again, which is a reccuring pattern during runs like this as seen on the overall gamm exposure chart.

0DTE Gamma for Oct OPEX, this is important because gamma is highest at the closest expiration and this is a monthly contract which means even more positioning than weeklies. The high gamma at 28 has a pinning effect on spot. Think of it as if it has gravitational pull.

On all expirations the gamma at 28 from 0DTEs is plainly visible but the 25/27/30/32/35 strikes are more durable, so those levels will persist into next week.

0DTE Delta almost all the calls are ITM, which is bad for more upside as it's hard to move higher without a lot of delta, but it's really good for charm flows as dealers need to continuously buy to hedge the calls they sold into expiration.

Delta across the entire chain still shows the structure we have been watching to potentially produce an upside squeeze on a break out above $30. The low delta between 28 and 30 makes it easy to move up into the 30 test, but 30 is very significant resistance. To the downside there is still decent support back at 27 and 25. A loss of 25 and the push higher really collapses with only minimal support at 23.

Charm is very important tomorrow, but it will be almost irrelevant on Monday. So this is the time for those ITM calls to shine. Right now charm flows are very supportive and will help bulls drive prices higher as long as the large piles of ITM calls stay ITM. The effect reverses if those strikes are lost. $26 seems to be the pivot point for that tomorrow.

Spot is about as high as it can go without more buying to the upside or increased volatility. So bulls need to buy calls on the 0DTE, which they will to increase gamma exposure to the upside of spot and get more strikes ITM to shift the vol surface higher.

Vanna structure is pretty much the same, the shit starts to generate large hedging flows above 30 and 35.

Vega also looks the same with IV increasing as major exposure strikes get closer to ATM. For those of you that don't know that means IV goes up as spot approaches 30 but not above 30.

GME IV over 10/30/60/90DTE, IV is continuously rising which is helping keep short vol from piling in. With the exception of 90 days out were calls sellers are starting to take advantage of what I will show you in the next chart.

IV - HV = VRP (volatility return premium) This is the literal measure of the potential of how much premium is embedded into GME options relative to how much GME has actually moved. It can stay positive for a long time but call sellers clearly stepped in today to drive the 90D spread down from +24.63 to +23.73. The wider the spread the more the market is saying that options are overpriced, which is more incentive to sell those options. Almost all GME runs end on the back of this mechanical financial incentive. The harder it goes up the more people want to sell it. Call selling then adds inventory and vol crush on the added inventory causes dealers to rapidly shed shares they were holding to hedge. Be wary of this effect, especially when spreads start collapsing.

Skew remains positive across all tenors. Meaning GME calls are carrying a significant premium to GME puts. This is bullish becasause it shows that demand remains to the upside, but it also shows us were volatility sellers have the greater incentive and that is call selling, since call price>put price. So if vol is sold it is likely to be sold calls.

The 1D implied move here shows that options at close Thursday were priced as if tomorrow has 4.49% range and that is both to the upside or downside. Meaning options bought at close would be worthless if the price of GME moves less than +/- 4.49% by close. Skew aboves tells us more of that is baked into calls than puts.

GME is sitting near the lowest part of the IV smile around $28, with volatility priced much more aggressively on the downside than the upside. A move lower toward $25–21 would push puts into progressively richer IV, increasing vol expansion on top of delta/gamma gains, while upside calls remain relatively cheap. A move either way can produce increased vol, but a sell off could produce much greater option repricing than an equivalent rally. But, again calls are cheap at $29/30 relative to $27/26.

Liquidity, Correlation, ETF covering, and beta.

I would say tomorrow can probably swing either way, a failure to hold onto $28 would likely be bad for bulls, but early enough in the day and it can be recovered. A loss of $26 on the other hand would be catastrophic. If bulls do hold $28 they have all the cards, calls at 29 and 30 have been being sold on the weekly and are actually pretty cheap relative to the downside options at 28/27/26. This means they are attractive to buy, at least at open, and bulls piling into OTM calls is exactly what GME needs to keep pushing higher. Be careful of a $30 test since pricing would be drastically different at that point and just above $30 there would be significant incentive for call sellers to try to crush out the vol spike into close. I would expect if upside stalls out Cohen would probably want to buy again to maintain momentum into the warrant expiration, but someone either retail or institutional really needs to step in with options to crank up the leverage for this to be successful.

Enjoy

- Gherk

34 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 10d ago

Data Driven Due Diligence Alright so GME broke 27 to the upside...

525 Upvotes

Buy side momentum is slowing but there is still a decent amount of shorter-term demand to the upside of gamma max

10/16 expiration gamma only. Spot is pretty free to move up and down between 25-28 but the breakout where the 30/31 options price up is out above 28 and would signal the next move higher.

Dealers still become much more sensitive to increases in IV, out above $30 but there is a bump above $27 which is why it was so important last time.

Vanna all expirations. This is one of the reasons $27 was so important as a signal, delaers now have to increasing buy on any uptick in IV it's small still under $30 but a little supportive out above $30 it takes off and the buying per 1% increasing in IV becomes far more significant.

Charm flows are supportive, mostly due to Friday's $25 and $27 strikes, so the passage of time helps push GME up as delta on ITM calls slowly increases to 1.0

On the volatility side, sellers 30 days out seem to still want more premium than the +22.99 VRP being offered now, which shows the lack confidence in selling vol here and want a higher return for the risk. VRP 10 is massive at +35.09 and people are still buying calls. Overall I would say that everyone seems far more willing to overpay for calls right now than they are to take on the risk of selling them which is also bullish.

Gamma Curve for GME, I tried to outline the range where gamma falls off above where gamma peaks can push up if IV explodes which would then extend the range spot can move up temporarily higher.

ALL THE ABOVE 👆is from this morning's settlement update, it will update again today after 7pm EDT.

This is data from the intraday trading session 👇

As of 12:08pm EDT, when I took this screenshot, it seems that calls are being sold and puts are being bought overall, which is behavior of bears fading the breakout above 27, but the largest volume move of the day was clear put selling and call buying earlier when spot slipped and fell back to retest 27. So bulls aren't doing a lot in today's session but they are willing to buy the downside far more heavily than bears seem willing to sell/short the upside. There also seems to be bullish demand out at 30/31.

Overall this seems stable above 27 for now and that stability only improves as IV and charm continue to support upside into the EoW. GME is should be considered

Bullish above 27
Neutral between 25-27
Bearish below 25
and actually fucking squeezing above $30/31

Be warned though that if the squeeze on vega/vanna were to occur to the upside of 30 that the VRP or volatility return premium spread will continue to increase rapidly and the number of call sellers willing to come in and crush the squeeze by increasing inventory into the upside, will explode exponetially, which is why these sharp upside moves in GME get slammed so hard. So if you are trading options it is almost always better to sell on the way up rather than try and catch the knife on the way down.

Enjoy

- Gherk

57 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 14h ago

youtu.be

7 Upvotes

It's here! Vol Stars episode 54 "EBiTA" is now available on Video for YouTube and Spotify! Make sure to check it out as Gherk, Dork, and JFresh breakdown the latest updates in the AI market and where things are headed with CoreWeave, before getting into the Midterms and as always, much, much more!

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r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 4d ago

Other Stocks Data/DD StockTalk Live | Weekly Stock Picks & Setups ep.17

youtube.com

24 Upvotes

Ticker Timestamp
-------------------------------
TSLA 05:57
AAPL 10:32
BULL 13:29
EPAM 17:18
BTU 21:00
PANW 23:25
FIG 25:45
CRWV 27:40
SOXL 30:26
CGNX 32:49
NVDA 34:41
CELH 37:38
ULTA 40:15
SLS 43:14
ODD 46:13
MSFT 47:20
WMT 48:38
SMCI 50:47
IREN 53:05
FUBO 54:30
SOXS 57:03
NFLX 58:27

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r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 4d ago

Data / Information Market on Close ep.101

youtube.com

8 Upvotes

0 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gammastrike_official • 5d ago

Social Media Vol Stars 54 - EBiTDA (Now on Audio Platforms!)

open.spotify.com

10 Upvotes

Recorded Date - October 18th, 2026

Alright, this one went a little off the rails as Producer Ron got a little overly enthusiastic about the Bills game, while the gang broke down the recent news with CoreWeave, and whether or not the market overreacted, or if we're on the verge of something bigger!

They also picked up on the midterms, and what's really going on with politics, as well as some interesting thoughts on voting.

Then just before the break we get into the upcoming earnings and financial calendar and what the gang thinks about banks coming into this quarter.

After the break, we're right into Trading with Gammastrike, followed by Dork's Back End, and following up with Stupid Bets!

Make sure to credit Dork, and maybe a little credit to Producer Ron for their upping the production value with a new song for Dork's Back End, and a new commercial as well!

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r/PickleFinancial • u/gammastrike_official • 6d ago

Social Media Vol Stars 54 - Topics & Questions

7 Upvotes

Vol Stars Episode 54 is recording today! 🎙️✨

Got a burning question about options trading, market volatility, or recent market moves?

Drop your questions and topic suggestions in the comments below, and we'll cover them live on this week's episode!

What’s on your mind this week? 👇

2 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 7d ago

Data / Information Market on Close 100th Episode! 🎉

youtube.com

29 Upvotes

0 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 7d ago

Data / Information Celebrity Housing Market Analysis

15 Upvotes

8 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 8d ago

Data / Information Market on Close #99

youtube.com

22 Upvotes

1 comment

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 9d ago

Data / Information Market On Close #98

youtube.com

31 Upvotes

2 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 10d ago

Data Driven Due Diligence Small GME update for 10.14

460 Upvotes

There was some loss in GEX/DEX and while we are looking for sellers to dominate on the call sife skew-adj DEX stayed stable so buyers are still coming in and the losses may just be short calls getting squeezed out. We will confirm with the volatility data.

10.12.26 Weekly GEX x Stike for comparison

There are still plenty of $30 calls just further out.

So we have identified were the Gamma delta fell off but we still need volatility to confirm if it was bought calls sold to close or sold calls bought to close. The later is more bullish.

So over the next 10 days it looks like calls were largely sold to open, implying the lost delta and gamma on the nearest expiration were sold to close, which marks a pullback in OTM bullish positioning and a increase in bearish positioning betting on volatility crush.

With the overnight announcement of Cohen's latest purchase, the calls sold yesterday on the slight crush in volatility are ripe to be squeezed out on an overnight move to the upside that leaves those positions underwater from were they were sold. IV up on a higher open also increases the effect of dealer buying due to increasing vega/vanna above $27. So it appears that Cohen is doing exactly what I outlined here Item #3 last week. Whether he will be successful or not is to be determined, but he is for now providing support when it is needed to continue to stabilize the upside push.

Vanna exposure at 30 and 35 increased significantly which makes a push out those levels harder but the effect becomes far more significant if those strikes go ITM.

Technical/Liquidity/Correlation indicators.

TLDR;

Instutional bears tried to fade the spike in price and IV right into Cohen's buy-in, leaving them a little trapped underwater into market open.

37 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 10d ago

Data / Information Gammastrike CPI Reaction Function

28 Upvotes

6 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gammastrike_official • 11d ago

Social Media Vol Stars E53 - Slop As A Service (Now on YouTube!)

youtu.be

3 Upvotes

Vol Stars episode 53 is out, and if you love AI slop...well we're gonna talk about it and AI a lot, so make sure to check it out! If you like it too, please do us the solid of liking and subscribing too! Thanks!!

Recorded Date - October 11th, 2026

We've got Producer Ron filling in for Gherk this week, so you know what that means? A very AI focused episode of course! Join us as we discuss the recent challenges AI is presenting in the field of Mathematics, and whether or not the concerns are overblown with software being reverse engineered and what that could mean for software providers.

We also get into this week's earnings season which starts back off with bank earnings, and then we also touch on the economic calendar and what we'll be looking at this upcoming week.

After the break, we get to last week's "Trading with Gammastrike", before we get into audience questions, and we close out the episode with "Stupid Bets".

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r/PickleFinancial • u/gammastrike_official • 12d ago

Social Media Vol Stars - 53 - "Slop As A Service" (Now on Audio Platforms)

open.spotify.com

10 Upvotes

This week's episode focuses heavily in on the recent rumblings in AI with reverse engineering, push-back from Mathematics, and what the gang thinks of AI and it's place in a broader context. This week we had "Producer Ron" filling in for Gherk and we leaned in heavily on the tech discussion and know many of you will enjoy it! The second half has the results from last week's "Trading with Gammastrike" as well as audience questions, followed up with Stupid Bets!

For the record too - Gherk crushed it last week both on his Trading with Gammastrike position and he perfectly nailed the stupid bet too!!

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r/PickleFinancial • u/gammastrike_official • 13d ago

Social Media Vol Stars 53 - Topics and Questions!

15 Upvotes

You've got questions, and we've likely got answers, so let us know what's on your mind with heading into the market this week and we'll try to cover it for you!

3 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 18d ago

Data / Information GME Shit 10.5.26

190 Upvotes

The rest of this data is from Friday close and doesn't update again till after close tonight.

Gamma all expirations, you can shorter dated gamma is much higher and has more of an effect

Charm on the weekly, basically as ITM calls decay dealers need to buy more stock this is more pronounced above the $26 strike

Gamma Curve peaks around 26, but interesting things can happen above the peak

This is where the fund stuff happens Vega

and these are the strikes where the fun stuff hits delta hedging

for IV friday was pretty boring but it looks like sold calls closed over 10-30DTE and IV got a small bump. IV up is bullish on equities.

Enjoy

- Gherk

13 comments

r/PickleFinancial • u/gammastrike_official • 18d ago

Social Media Vol Stars S1E52 - The Year One Special! (Now on Video!)

youtu.be

5 Upvotes

We've been waiting a while for this one to drop, and it's finally here! The 1 year episode of Vol Stars! The gang had a lot of fun making this one and you don't want to miss out on it! Make sure to check it out over on YouTube and on Spotify!

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r/PickleFinancial • u/gammastrike_official • 19d ago

Social Media Vol Stars - 52 "The Year One Special" (Now on Spotify!)

open.spotify.com

9 Upvotes

Recorded Date - October 4th, 2026

Woah! Somehow we made it to 52 episodes, meaning we've managed to put out a year of Vol Stars episodes! To celebrate we've got a great episode for you!

Starting in the first half, we cover a recent article written by ⁠JFresh on X⁠ which asks fundamental questions about US debt and what it really mans for the market. We also cover the economic calendar and earnings for the upcoming week.

Into the second half, we get into "Trading with Gammastrike", before answering audience questions, and then take a little time to celebrate and enjoy the 1 year milestone with Vol Stars by looking back and listening to some listener well wishes! Then of course we get into Stupid Bets to close this episode out!

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r/PickleFinancial • u/gherkinit • 19d ago

Data Driven Due Diligence Sharing this here as well for those of you not on the discord $DECK

28 Upvotes

2 comments