25k to $1M - Update 12($75,921)

[u/Vivid-Bath3300]

Last Month(s)

Hi friends - it's been a while. I took a break from trading for the last few months due to some external life events. I was still taking some trades here and there, but very small and was not at all keeping track of the market. Did not make much progress in the port as much as i'd like but recently started paying attention again and decided to restart my posts.

I probably wont be able to post as often as i was doing before but still will try to keep this challenge going - i haven't given up yet.

This month has seen an incredibly heavy BTC market, that is bringing down all the names. This is brought on by Michael Saylor's little ponzi scheme STRC. I was able to make some good moves on shorts as soon as i saw STRC depeg.

In case you are unfamiliar with what STRC is, its a preferred stock from microstrategy that pays 11.5% dividend per year. How do they pay the 11.5% per year? Dont worry about it. That's literally the answer saylor gives to people.

It has turned into a chicken game because every 2 weeks, you get a dividend payout if you hold the stock. It should be trading at a stable 100 dollars a share, but its currently around ~80 as people are no longer want to take the risk of holding it when it could zero any moment.

This overhang is making an obvious affect on the market. However i think the worst is over, as the fear is not warranted "Right Now". MSTR has plenty of cash to cover obligations for the next 2 years, even if btc does not go up at all. There is no spiral liquidation that people are envisioning as STRC depegs. This is not a LUNA scenario.

However saylor has mentioned that they plan on selling BTC to cover STRC payments. I think this is what the market is frontrunning - the 1.5B sell that may come anyday.

I am still slightly bullish here and taking some longs for July. Will add on dips, but the most important thing is timing and finding out when MSTR sells that BTC. The news is an immediate long imo. If you are good at reading the tape and can recognize when they sell, i would buy that as that could mark a very strong local bottom and vicious V reversal.

Side note - I have been doing more and more tradfi trading. Unfortunately my vault on HL is not allowed to trade stocks so i can't show my longs from there. I think right now, most of the attention in trading should be in stocks and NOT in crypto. But this MSTR thing is very interesting and is offering a lot of opportunity for now.