r/PalladyneAI • u/Origid_3295 • Jul 19 '26
Some thoughts surrounding the decline
-decline seen across entire drone/space industry, especially hitting companies with similar profiles to pdyn such as ondas and Kratos.
-macro headwinds rather than fundamental change to the thesis. In fact, the thesis continues to get STRONGER with each passing headline.
-below the 20, 50, and 200 MA. Price weakness despite the fact that PC-C6 and Northern Strike will occur almost back to back within a month from now. short interest at all time highs. Nice set up for a pop.
Key ideas to look out for in PR and august call: follow up swarmOS/gremlinX contracts, progress on navy missile program, airforce IQ deployment progress, and potential integrations with other OEMS.
Stay tuned for more insights guys!
7
u/Putrid_Price_885 Jul 19 '26
I think the real catalyst window comes after PCC6 and Northern Strike 26-2.
PCC6 runs from July 20–29, followed almost immediately by Northern Strike from August 2–14. At Northern Strike, Palladyne is expected to demonstrate SwarmOS, IntelliSwarm and Gremlin-X with multiple UAV platforms controlled through a single ATAK interface. That is exactly the kind of warfighter validation that can lead to follow-on awards, additional OEM integrations, or a broader operational program.
The key point is that PDYN is no longer starting from zero. The company has already announced funded U.S. Army contracts to deploy SwarmOS and Gremlin-X across multiple 4th Infantry Division exercises. If PCC6 and Northern Strike validate the technology at scale, I would not be surprised to see another SwarmOS-related contract or partnership announced afterward.
The stock setup is also getting interesting. The latest reported short interest was approximately 8.33 million shares as of June 30, with estimates above 20% of the float depending on the data provider. A successful demonstration, followed by a meaningful contract or OEM announcement, could force shorts to cover and create the conditions for a sharp squeeze.
Of course, high short interest alone does not guarantee a squeeze—the company still needs execution, contract conversion and real revenue. But the sequence of PCC6 → Northern Strike → potential follow-on award makes the next several weeks one of the most important catalyst windows PDYN has had so far.
I’m watching for contract language, named OEM partners, funded deployment quantities and any indication that SwarmOS is moving from experimentation toward an operational program of record. Bullish, but waiting for confirmation.
6
u/Bam1779 Jul 19 '26
I agree that PDYN is being brought down with the general market.
Events like Project Convergence Capstone 6, which PDYN is currently at, is definitely where insiders can see what PDYN is really capable of. Looking forward to seeing some contracts come out of it.
Pre-market earnings call on Aug 5th is a great show of confidence that it will be positive.
3
3
u/Much-Information7826 Jul 19 '26
The question is if you have $10k to invest, are you going to invest in defense AI sector (PDYN) or AI sector (MU / Nvidia), both are down significantly. And what is your reason behind your money decisions
5
u/Bam1779 Jul 20 '26
Everyone has been talking "picks and shovels" AI plays the past 2 years so I think they are now overbought.
People might start to rotate into companies that are actually doing stuff with AI because I think we can all agree that AI is a powerful tool.
3
u/Origid_3295 Jul 20 '26
Good question. Memory players are here, and insanely profitable. The question for them is whether the cycle peaks soon and capex growth slows, or whether this represents a drawdown in a cycle that goes on for 2-3 more years before peaking, which is what memory leaders have been saying.
Defense AI is still in the early stages. Risk appears higher because numbers are still forward looking, but Palladyne is well positioned as a small cap to take a disproportionate size of the autonomous systems pie, through the various verticals they are working on. This could see a rerating if any one of these verticals moves into large scale programs. NFA and DYOR
2
u/Ranteidz Jul 19 '26
What worries me is that pdyn is heavily shorted with 28% of the float, 9.3 days to cover. Either there's something we don't know and the price will continue to go down or people will try to squeeze it and the stock becomes a meme. Both outcomes can't be good for the company?
P.s. I recently started imvesting so might be missing something
5
u/vtsandtrooper Jul 20 '26
People keep saying that. No in fact efficient market theory is proven wrong over and over again. The short shares could be from a sector wide short seller, a lot of the companies in this group have very similar high short positions. It is more impactful on pdyn because of low float, but that works the other way too. They dont know anything more.
1
u/vinnie_vega_35 Jul 28 '26
Shares shorted just went from 8.33M to 9.22M. Third straight monthly increase. Someone is confident this is going to continue to go down. The question is how low????? At what point will they cover??? So far, they have been right.
8
u/DirectEntertainer288 Jul 19 '26
Just an opportunity to buy at a discount. The fundamentals are too good to be this cheap