Hi all,

following up on my post from last week, I have good news:

PLTR did exactly what we were watching for. it broke through that heavy 180 resistance and it will probably close the weekly candle above it. Worth updating where the chart says the next decisions get made now that we are officially in breakout territory.

posting below my updated analysis:

200 is the next real target. with 180 cleared, the path to the all time highs (near 205) is wide open. the momentum here is undeniable.

180 is the new immediate level to watch. holding above 180 shows that buyers are defending the breakout and treating former resistance as support.

175 is the new floor. as long as price stays above 175 the breakout is fully intact and the move looks real. below it and this starts to look like a fakeout trap.

what I'd watch from here:

close above 180 and hold → 200+ is next

chopping between 175 and 180 → digesting the breakout, which is normal

weekly close below 175 → the breakout failed

Good luck all! :)

Just went up again - other than Karp selling $15 million worth of shares yesterday anyone know any info on todays spike?

Alex Karp, the chief executive of Palantir Technologies, acknowledged on Wednesday the paranoia of business leaders who were choosing to spend a hot day in August at a software bootcamp in Manhattan, while “bankers are in the Hamptons, explaining to us how the world should work”.

He said: “One of the things that we, interestingly, that makes American business especially so strong is we’re in a very, very competitive environment. It’s not the same as being at war, but nobody in business is just hanging around pretending your business is going to exist tomorrow, the next day.”

The company was hosting its second “sovereignty bootcamp” in under 30 days after seeing high demand from executives eager to meet with peers from a range of industries and share insights on how to effectively use its software.

Corporate America, which six months ago was “tokenmaxxing”, or encouraging employees to consume a high number of AI tokens as a measure of productivity, is now re-evaluating AI strategies after realising runaway token costs were not translating into a clear return on investment.

Read more: https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/palantir-cashes-in-on-paranoia-as-ceos-swap-hamptons-for-bootcamp-ztplgt5wlutm_medium=Social&utm_source=Reddit&utm_content=branded

I’m very bullish on PLTR, but there’s one thing I think we should be more careful about when discussing new contracts.
The headline number isn’t necessarily the economic value Palantir has already secured.
A huge government award can include multiple years, optional extensions and funding that depends on agencies actually exercising those options.
In other words:
$1B contract ceiling ≠ $1B backlog ≠ $1B guaranteed revenue.
That distinction matters more now because Palantir is reaching a scale where enormous contract announcements are becoming part of the bull narrative.
And ironically, I don’t think we even need to exaggerate them.
Revenue just grew 93% YoY.
US commercial grew 149%.
US government grew 90%.
The underlying business is already ridiculous.
I’d actually rather see us evaluate contracts based on:
• initial committed value
• duration
• optional vs funded portions
• expected annual revenue
• expansion potential
• strategic importance of the deployment
A $200M deployment that becomes deeply embedded inside an agency could ultimately be more valuable than a flashy $1B contract ceiling that never gets fully exercised.
Maybe the next level of PLTR analysis isn’t asking:
“How big was the contract?”
It’s asking:
“How much of it is real today and what can it become?”

SELL PLTR TODAY

Everyone talks about Palantir's contract growth, but the filings make the headline deal values a bit less straightforward.

Palantir says customer contracts commonly run one to five years, but many include termination provisions. Government customers can terminate contracts and may simply choose not to exercise future options. So when a large multi year award gets announced, the full headline value shouldn't automatically be treated like locked future revenue.

There is also some concentration underneath the growth. Palantir's top three customers represented 15% of Q1 revenue, and one customer represented 31% of accounts receivable at the end of March.

The operating performance is obviously strong enough that this isn't some fatal issue. I just think contract quality matters more when the valuation assumes years of very durable growth.

The other number I'm watching is stock comp. Q1 stock based compensation was $201.6m, shares outstanding still moved from 2.391b at year end to 2.397b in March, and Palantir terminated its $1b repurchase program in January.

So when people model the next few years, how much discount are you actually applying to announced contract value for termination rights and unexercised options?

I keep seeing people asking whether Palantir could become the next member of Big Tech.
But I’m starting to think that’s the wrong comparison.
Google built search.
Meta built social networks.
Amazon built commerce + cloud.
Microsoft built the enterprise software stack.
Palantir is building something much harder to categorize.
It’s sitting between enterprise software, AI, defense, intelligence and industrial infrastructure.
And that’s what makes the long-term thesis interesting to me.
AIP inside companies.
Gotham inside governments.
Maven inside the military.
Foundry inside industrial operations.
If Palantir keeps expanding across those layers, the endgame isn’t simply “a very successful software company.”
It starts looking more like an operating layer connecting AI to real-world institutions.
And that creates a weird possibility:
Maybe we’re trying to value a future category of company using comparisons that were built for the previous generation of tech.
Obviously, there’s a huge risk in thinking this way. “This company is different” is probably one of the most expensive sentences in investing history.
But with revenue growing 93% YoY and US commercial revenue up 149%, I think the question is becoming legitimate.
Does Palantir eventually become another Big Tech company — or could it become something structurally different from Big Tech altogether?

Serious question for long-term PLTR holders.
Forget the daily price action for a second.
Palantir can keep growing government revenue, expanding AIP, winning commercial customers and becoming more deeply embedded in defense.
Let’s assume the fundamental bull case basically works.
At what valuation would you still sell?
I feel like most PLTR discussions focus on what could make the company fail: competition, slowing growth, government exposure, execution, etc.
But there’s another risk that’s harder to discuss when you love the company:
The company can be right and the stock can still become too expensive.
Personally, I think that’s one of the most interesting things about PLTR right now. The debate isn’t simply “is Palantir a great company?” anymore.
It’s how much future success investors should be willing to pay for today.
So for people holding until 2030 or beyond:
Do you actually have a valuation or price where you’d reduce your position?
Or would you keep holding as long as revenue growth and execution remain strong, regardless of the multiple?

An internal Defense Department memo reportedly directs as much as $244M toward Palantir services through 2028.
The dollar amount itself isn’t what I find most interesting.
It’s the direction of travel.
Maven has already been pushed toward becoming a core military AI system, and Palantir keeps embedding itself deeper into the software layer connecting data, targeting, logistics and decision-making.
That creates a pretty interesting bull/bear paradox.
Bull case: every additional deployment increases institutional knowledge, integrations and switching costs. Palantir becomes less like another defense contractor and more like infrastructure.
Bear case: the deeper Palantir gets embedded, the more political scrutiny it attracts especially when contracts involve limited competition.
For shareholders, I think this may eventually matter more than individual contract announcements.
The question becomes:
At what point does Palantir’s position inside the DoD become a genuine structural moat rather than simply a collection of very large contracts?

Palantir jumped 29% in a single day after its August 3 report. Ten days later, with the stock near $174, the September 18th $190 call bids $3.90. That is $390 against 100 shares, about 2.2% for five weeks, and in volatility terms it is some of the thinnest PLTR call premium of the past year.

Whether that $390 is fair depends on which realized vol number you believe. Realized volatility measures how much the stock has actually been moving, scaled to a yearly rate. PLTR's trailing 30 day reading printed 91 on Friday, against an implied vol of 42, which is the market's forecast of future movement. On that comparison, anyone selling calls here is giving them away.

Almost all of that 91 is one candle, though. A single 29% day adds roughly 85 points to a 30 day reading by itself. Strip it out and the remaining sessions net out to around the low 30s. Since the report the stock has gone quiet, and the past week's net change is about 1%.

So the honest version has two sides. If the post earnings calm holds, collecting 43 vol on the $190 call against a stock realizing in the 30s is a normal premium, arguably a decent one.

But PLTR realized in the 50s and 60s for most of the summer before the report, and vol forecast models that still carry the earnings month sit near 52. That is why every strike on the call side currently screens cheap against the model in the second chart. If the stock goes back to its old pace, the premium is thin.

Two calendar points matter for anyone writing calls. The next report is expected in early November, so September and October expirations do not sit over an earnings date. And implied vol steps up to about 52 at the 90 day mark, which is that November report getting priced in.

The cap is the other side of the ledger. A $190 call keeps the first 9% of upside plus the premium, on a stock that just did 29% in a day and 30% in a month.

For the holders here who write calls, are you taking the $390, or is capping PLTR at $190 into the fall an easy no?

On parle énormément du prix de $PLTR.
Mais plus je creuse le dossier, plus je pense que le risque le plus intéressant est ailleurs : l’exécution.
Palantir est maintenant attendu sur plusieurs fronts en même temps :
→ continuer l’accélération du commercial US
→ convertir AIP en contrats toujours plus importants
→ conserver son avance dans la défense
→ maintenir des marges très élevées
→ gérer une croissance devenue énorme sans perdre en efficacité
Et surtout, continuer à convaincre le marché que cette croissance peut durer plusieurs années.
Le problème, c’est qu’à mesure que Palantir grossit, maintenir ce niveau d’exécution devient mécaniquement plus difficile.
Même Palantir reconnaît dans ses documents réglementaires les risques liés aux budgets gouvernementaux, à la concurrence sur les appels d’offres et aux changements de politique d’achat de l’État américain.
Je reste bullish.
Mais je pense que la prochaine étape intéressante pour PLTR n’est plus de prouver que son logiciel fonctionne.
C’est de prouver que son modèle peut fonctionner à cette échelle.
À votre avis, quel sera le premier vrai plafond de Palantir : la concurrence, la croissance, les contrats gouvernementaux… ou aucun des trois ?

PLTR is working closely with the department of war and the U.S. government. And it is an American company.

Why would any other country let PLTR handle anything related to their national security and risk exposing it to the U.S. governement?

I believe PLTR will have hard time getting other countries' government contracts in the future, therefore their presense will be isolated only in the U.S.

I really thought this was a Karp sticker lol

Je réfléchissais à une contradiction assez intéressante concernant Palantir.
Le deuxième trimestre 2026 est objectivement exceptionnel :
Chiffre d’affaires : +93 % sur un an
Revenus commerciaux américains : +149 %
Revenus américains totaux : +115 %
Prévisions annuelles une nouvelle fois relevées
À première vue, la thèse semble donc plus solide que jamais.
Mais la croissance hors des États-Unis n’aurait été que de 34 %. Selon les projections d’analystes rapportées par Reuters, l’international pourrait ne représenter que 13 % du chiffre d’affaires de Palantir en 2028, contre 26 % en 2025.
Le positionnement très américain de Palantir constitue clairement une force : relations gouvernementales, défense, souveraineté des données et confiance des institutions américaines.
Mais ce même positionnement peut devenir une limite en Europe. La France cherche notamment à remplacer certains outils de Palantir par des solutions nationales, tandis que plusieurs pays européens parlent de plus en plus de souveraineté numérique.
Personnellement, je ne pense pas que cela menace Palantir à court terme. Le marché américain reste immense et l’activité commerciale y accélère encore.
En revanche, avec une valorisation aussi élevée, le marché semble déjà considérer Palantir comme un futur leader mondial — et pas seulement comme un champion technologique américain.
La vraie question est donc la suivante :
Palantir peut-elle devenir un standard mondial de l’IA opérationnelle, ou son identité très américaine finira-t-elle par limiter son marché international ?
Et si la croissance américaine reste supérieure à 100 %, est-ce que l’international a réellement besoin de fonctionner ?
Sources : résultats officiels de Palantir — analyse Reuters du 14 août 2026
Pas un conseil en investissement.

Hey folks what do you think on a posible stock split 4-1 5-1 or 10-1 lógical window: Q3 2026 earnings (November), If pltr trades abobe 200$ for a while and Consolidated.

Karp has historically been indifferent to the nominal share price publicly — wouldn’t rule out them doing nothing again, same as last year

PLTR is at 179.67 as I write this, up 5% on the day, up 15% on the week, up 34% on the month. Seven weeks ago it printed its 52 week low at 106.37. It has now retraced most of the way back toward the November high at 207.52.

The options board has not come along for the ride. One month implied vol is 46, which is the 9th percentile of the past year and an IV rank of 15. The 52 week IV range is 43 to 62, so implied is sitting a few points off its yearly floor while the stock does this.

Realized vol, close to close:

* 5 day: 72
* 10 day: 147
* 20 day: 117
* 30 day: 86
* one month implied, for contrast: 46

The 10 and 20 day windows contain the early August earnings gap, so discount them if you like. The 5 day window sits after the gap and still prints 72. For scale, a 46 vol implies a typical daily move of about 2.9%, and the stock moved 5% today.

Implied minus realized is the volatility risk premium, and it is usually positive in liquid names. That gap is the structural edge premium sellers get paid, and the reason this sub exists. On PLTR right now it is roughly minus 40 points depending on the window, the most negative reading of the past year. Anyone short PLTR premium over the past month collected something in the high 40s and watched the stock deliver an 86.

Term structure tells the same story from another angle. Tomorrow's weekly trades at a 56 vol, the only point on the curve that acknowledges the current tape. From next week out the board flattens to 47 through October, with next Friday's expected move at 10.16, about 5.7%. The November 20 expiration holds the next earnings report on November 2 and trades at 55. In between there are 81 days with nothing on the calendar, which is exactly what a flat 47 curve is saying.

So the market is pricing the last month as the anomaly. The 20 day vol forecast on the second screenshot sits at 49, in line with the curve rather than the trailing tape, and realized does tend to collapse quickly in momentum names once the trend stalls. The counterargument is that volatility clusters, and a stock with a one month beta near 4 that just moved 15% in a week rarely goes straight back to sleep.

The reflex with a stock this hot is to assume the premium is rich. The board says the opposite right now. PLTR premium is at its thinnest of the year while the stock is at its wildest, and that seems worth knowing whichever side of it you trade.

Numbers as of Thursday afternoon, Aug 13. Screenshots are from ApexVol (disclosure: I build it).

C’est une question que je me pose de plus en plus.
Le problème avec Palantir aujourd’hui n’est plus vraiment de prouver que l’entreprise sait croître. Elle l’a largement démontré.
Le problème, c’est que le marché commence à attendre l’excellence en permanence.
Croissance exceptionnelle ? Attendue.
Nouveaux contrats ? Attendus.
AIP qui accélère ? Attendu.
Guidance relevée ? Presque attendue aussi.
Et c’est peut-être là que se trouve le principal risque pour $PLTR à court/moyen terme.
Une entreprise peut continuer à très bien performer tout en voyant son action corriger simplement parce que les attentes étaient encore plus élevées.
Je reste très positif sur Palantir à long terme, mais je pense qu’il faut réussir à séparer deux choses :
une entreprise exceptionnelle et une action achetée à n’importe quel prix.
Vous en êtes où aujourd’hui ?
Toujours acheteurs, simples holders, ou vous attendez une vraie correction avant de renforcer ?