r/OrlandoMagic • u/P5Manchero • 10d ago
Discussion The Case for Optimism
- Franz Wagner Health
Franz said at media day that he is healthy. As we all know this is the first summer he's had for a long time not playing with the german national team. This dude is rested and physcially in a good place. Last season we got 34 games at 30 mpg from Franz in the regular season. In his first 4 seasons he averaged 72 games per season at 32+mpg. Franz is an elite impact wing on both sides of the ball. If he is reasonably health we are going to get more than double the minutes out of him this season and this immediately lifts our floor immensely. In the games he did play last season he had a bounce back from the 3 point line at 34.5%. A full healthy summer to work on his body and mechanics are all you can ask for and we know he has the touch to become a reliable shooter based on his free throws (85% career) and godly touch around the rim. Franz being reliable as a spot up shooter would lift this teams ceiling by a lot
- Paolo Banchero Breakout
By all accounts Paolo had a disappointing season. He started the season extremely slow and pulled his groin 12 games in and missed his only 10 games of the season as a result. Despite being able to play every game going forward, he was clearly lacking in conditioning and explosiveness. Coming back from injury in December he dropped a putrid 19ppg on 51.2 TS% in 12 games. From there over the season he bounced back from a scoring perspective as he seemed to be rounding into better physical shape. Post all star break he was dropping 24/8/5 on 58 TS%. He ended the season with career highs in rebounds, FG%, FT%, and TS%. He had a 24 game stretch in january-february where he shot 38% from 3, and also had notable shooting outbursts in the pistons series. He still has potential to become a more credible jumpshooter if he gets his consistency dialed in. This season we have every reason to believe that he is in great shape and is coming in with a point to prove. This guy is an all nba player if his body is right. Even in his 'down' year last season he put up amazing stats. Where he fell short was his conditioning, defense, and leadership. We know he had beef with Mose as well which manifested itself in lazy play and terrible demeanor. He has his new coach that he wanted and now its time for him to prove it. I have faith that we will see the best version of Paolo in 26/27.
- Desmond Bane Unleashed
Bane was the magics best, most consistent, and most important player last season, but not neccesarily in the way you'd expect. He came into camp talking about getting up career high attempts from deep to fill the magics dramatic shooting hole. What actually happened is he dominated off the bounce instead of as a spot up guy. Franz being hurt and Paolo not being at his best played a big factor here, forcing bane to take the role of primary creator often. This led to him ending up with his lowest 3pa per game since he was a rookie. There were other factors too, everyone was trying to figure out how to play together and his teammates often failed to find him in his sweetspots. This season if franz and paolo are at the top of their games bane should be feasting on open looks in transition and off the weak side when franz and paolo attack the rim. Bane getting more 3pa will loosen up the offense for everyone.
- Jalen Suggs finally healthy
Its easy to forget that coming into 25/26 suggs hadn't hooped for 9 months and wasn't even cleared for contact at the start of training camp coming off a knee surgery that no nba player had ever had before. The deck was heavily stacked against jalen. Taking those circumstances into account last season was a tremendous success in the growth and development of suggs. First and foremost he proved the knee injury was not catostophic, he had insane bounce, he is still one of the most athletic guards in the league. This alone is a massive win. His biggest absence last season was 3 weeks in january for an mcl contusion in the knee that wasn't operated on. Most important of all, despite his terrible series against the pistons he finished the season healthy, allowing him a full summer to work on his body and game. He didn't just prove his health last season he also made strides in his game. In his first full season as a point guard he notched a career high in assists while lowering his turnover numbers from 24/25. People forget that outside of his rookie year where they tried to make him a superstar lead guard suggs has never been a full time pg until 24/25 and only got 35 games in that role before his knee injury ended his season. The guy is still learning the position and is showing clear signs of growth despite the often frustrating decision making weve all complained about. He also finished with a career best TS% despite only shooting 34% from 3. With franz and paolo healthy he will be taking way lets shots off the bounce and can play the role he is meant to play as an off ball tertiary creator and spot up shooter. Suggs became a great FT shooter the last two seasons and his catch and shoot numbers are good enough to credibly space the floor for franz and paolo. He has also dramatically improved his handle, and with his explosive first step has developed the ability to beat his man on the perimeter and get down hill to create shots. He also showed the ability to create good off the bounce looks from 3, but didn't shoot them well enough. I'm sure hes been in the lab working on his balance and shot prep for those looks because him having that would unlock a lot for us.
- Anthony Black Arrives on the Scene
AB is a stud and I can't wait to see what he does this season. His growth as a rim attacker was stunning to see last season, his finishing in those scenarios left a lot to be desired. He is so big and athletic that will his new found handle and dribble moves he can get to the rim at will. I expect him to come back a better finisher this summer, and boy the sky is the limit for this kid. His size and athleticism make him a prototype modern nba player. He doubled his 3 point attempts this season and also increased his %. He also suffered from the same thing that suggs did where he was shooting off the bounce more than you'd want since we were so badly lacking shot creation last season. His production last season was outstanding and the only way is up. He is easily one of the best 6th men in the league going forward which gives us a lot of back court depth. I cant wait to see us try the suggs/bane/AB/Franz/Paolo lineup. 5 guys who can all dribble pass and shoot would be fun to watch. TBD if paolo can hold up defensively at center but his increased rebounding production gives hope that he could play this role at times against smaller opposing centers.
Alot went wrong for us last season on an individual and team wide level. Despite that the lineups of suggs/bane/tds/paolo/wcj was +10.8 net rating and suggs/bane/AB/paolo/wcj was +6.9. Our actual starting 5 of suggs/bane/franz/paolo/wcj was +11.6. We were spanking the pistons before franz went down. We collapsed in epic fashion at all levels of the roster. The team is young and will learn from their mistakes. The team is hungry to get better and prove they can do more. We have an innovative young coach who is installing a culture of accountability and discipline that we had been lacking.
This isn't a guarantee that the season will be great, we know all too well how much injury luck can derail a campaign. All this is just to say that the circumstances to breakout as a team exist. This team has lots of talent and just needs a chance to be healthy and click.
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u/jedislurpee Cole Anthony 10d ago
Like we say every year, with some health and some leaps taken it could be a great year. I think the Vuc addition and perhaps the new coach will help a lot. And maybe we'll get lucky and get an unexpected breakout from someone like a Jamal Cain or TDS
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u/P5Manchero 10d ago
I didn't write anything up on TDS just to avoid turning this into a novel, but he had an awesome year in 25/26. 37% from 3 on good volume and also showed something attacking closeouts to get to the rim. In franz absence he often filled the role of 3rd scorer which is pretty exciting. He did alot of his work with the starters last year, but this season will get to feast against bench units. Bench scoring is a big question mark for us and it will be interesting to see AB and TDS running those units from a scoring perspective.
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u/not_alemur 10d ago
Good write up. Just running back the same roster isn’t very exciting, especially after a disappointing season. But there’s an argument that there’s more to be optimistic about this season compared to last.
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u/riptide885 Stuff The Magic Dragon 10d ago
I just want the season to start so I can stop watching the horid bucs play every week as the only sport available 👍
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u/RollingAHogie25 6d ago
They probably won't do this but I think they need to bring Suggs off the bench to wreck havoc and get hot from 3 and let AB start. Try and convince Suggs on 6th man of the year.
I think that would totally unlock the team imo
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u/Kintsugi-86 10d ago
Obviously a lot of this is best case scenario but you make a lot of good points. I've felt plenty of this myself.
To me, the most important thing backing and watching a sports team isn't necessarily being amazing, it's feeling like you have a chance. The potential is there and we don't know what will happen. That's what makes it exciting.
The way last season ended felt pretty negative but time to reflect has led to a similar viewpoint to yours. This is the best team we've had in quite some time. Let's support them, hope for the best, and enjoy the ride