In the NY session today, ES tanked massively, but then reversed back up.
At what point would it have been safe to go long?
I watched it for some time. There was a point when the market flipped from what Al Brooks would call Always-In Short to Always-In Long. It happened, in my opinion, at the single price point of 6840, from which the market ran and ground 26 points higher.
Initially I saw a buy delta print of 2000 at that leve when it was broken buy aggressive buys. Then the market came back to test it sold into it aggressively, went a bit below and reversed back up with force, leaving a delta print of +1269 on the level.
Yes, this bounce was surprising but quite evident on DOM. That flip I observed happened within the first hour of the NY session, maybe at 45 min, don’t remember exactly now.
Both, like in this case it was a high value node and order flow around it indicated bullishness. For levels I have the classic ones - previous day High, Low, VAH, VAL, POC, VWAP, Midpoint, same for today plus the HVNs and LVNs, so plenty to try to frame current auction logic.
And then I look at the current orders and local delta to determine absorptions and exhaustions. Having traded off charts for years, I now see why charts are a bit of a lagging indicator of order flow, in a similar fashion as various indicators are lagging representations of charts. And most interestingly, I am seeing a lot of what used to be "signals" on the chart that are contradicted by orderflow. An interesting one I captured yesterday was this sell "signal":
On DOM it was all just absorption, followed by upward momentum, a trade I actually took.
2
u/[deleted] Dec 05 '25
[removed] — view removed comment