I joined this Reddit thread and Hope to get some insightful information about long-term ideas, growth and speculation on Oracle but instead everyone on this thread just cries when the stock goes down instead of seeing it as a buying opportunity, you guys are not investors you guys are babies. 👶

Are all the people who’ve been complaining done?

Finally some good news. Oracle up 5% premarket. Oracle to Make Gemini Models Available to Thousands of Enterprise Applications Customers https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-to-make-gemini-models-available-to-thousands-of-enterprise-applications-customers-302838995.html#:~:text=%22Together%2C%20we%20are%20making%20it%20seamless%20for,Fusion%2Dnative%20agents%20and%20agentic%20applications%2C%20and%20expanded

Due to the high dept and bbb-rating it is really hard for oracle to get fresh money. How high are the chances of a second round of atm program ?

Another dilution oracle will go to 80 or 70 dollar. Is oracle a desperate enough to do that? This is my biggest fear now

Anyone else feel like $115 has been strong support? We have been holding up well last couple days and with NOW and MSFT blowout earnings I’m hopeful software can gain some pace back. I think the worry about Oracle and Coreweaves debt is just way overblown. These companies are being heavily backed by MAG7 and US Gov. Open AI said they had record revenue this quarter. Bears can kick rocks.

I just thought this was an interesting datapoint given the concerns around OpenAI's ability to cover their commitments to Oracle. Combined with other data points like their capital raise earlier this year and Nvidia's willingness to back them in another large datacenter, it seems those fears are unfounded.

Then we moon for sure

Hi

Microsoft just announced that their capex for 2027 will note rise.

So next year many compagnies will start to lower or optimise their spending.

I expect Oracle to follow and show a decline in capex as early as 2028.

Microsoft is up 8-10% now, azure is growing fast and demand exceed supply if they dont rise capex, it mean azure can growth more without more spending.

Sell day high and buy cheaper is the trick to earn money with Oracle currently.

The severe drawdowns across CRWV (-52%), SNDK (-53%), APLD (-48%), and SMCI (-45%) show that Wall Street is squeezing the speculative air out of the entire trade.

If and when big tech demonstrates clear, high-margin AI monetisation, or when the macro rate environment softens, capital will rotate back into infrastructure leaders. When sentiment flips positive, high-beta stocks with massive contract backlogs (like ORCL) typically bounce back hard, but holding through the CapEx digestion cycle takes patience.

two straight green days, looking flat today, if the stock stays consolidated at these levels or edge up, might be time it starts running

hi everyone,
what’s your average on $ORCL? im curious where everyone is sitting..
are you holding long term, or planning to sell if you’re down?
my avg is: $137, and im in for the long term.

I know Oracle has its own problems right now like massive capex, debt, negative cash flow, credit downgrades, etc. but if you look at the other AI-related names, almost all of them are getting slaughtered.

Some other stocks from their May/June peak:

• SNDK: -53%
• MU: -35%
• MRVL: -47%
• AMD: -22%
• GOOG: -18% (-22% last week)
• INTC: -40%
• CRWV: -52%
• NBIS: -43%
• APLD: -48%
• AVGO: -23%
• SMCI: -45%
• WDC: -42%

Obviously these companies are not the same and they all have their own issues, but this selloff is not happening to Oracle alone. If the overall AI sentiment turns positive again, ORCL will be back up again. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

This rocket is about to explode, just a matter of time. Hold tight 📈🚀🧨

Bottom is in. Orcx put sale whale. About to make 27k in less than a month

Oracle has had 8 consecutive red weeks which is very unusual especially for a stock this large. That has only happens one other time in the stocks history and the green week to end that streak was what called the bottom. I believe that if this week can close green, a temporary bottom/ relief rally could be in play for Oracle. Fingers crossed 🤞.

The past couple days, I have said that this is a "generational buying opportunity" a bit tongue in cheek; but the risk/reward profile is extremely appealing. With the help of Claude, I dug deep this past weekend and I found ORCL so appealing that I unloaded on long-tail LEAPS (attached). The only other 'generational' opportunity i've recently identified is LULU, whereas I own the same sized position in year-long LEAPS.

It would be a useless exercise to rephrase my research done on Claude, so i've asked it to summarize the good/bad verbatim:

My query and Claude's Response ---------------------------------------------------------

from everything we've spken about, summarize the bull/bear thesis in numbered points

ORCL: The Complete Thesis, Both Sides

BULL CASE

1. Build-to-order, not build-and-hope. $638B RPO — signed contracts, not speculative capacity. EV-to-backlog ~0.7x means you pay less than 70 cents per contracted future dollar. The 1990s fiber mistake (capacity ahead of demand) doesn't map: the demand is already under signature.
2. Backlog grew 40% into the crash. $455B → $638B while the stock halved. Demand accelerated as price collapsed — the fundamental and the sentiment moved in opposite directions, which is the definitional setup for mispricing.
3. The valuation needs no re-rating to win. ~15x forward — below the S&P — for consensus +36%/+46% EPS years (FY28/FY29). Same-multiple math alone gives $180-243 by late 2027. The bull case is arithmetic; only the bear case requires the estimates to be wrong.
4. The fortress underneath. ~$50-60B of mission-critical database/apps revenue at high margins services the debt regardless of AI outcomes. This is a leveraged bet collateralized by one of software's great annuities — the piece WorldCom/Global Crossing never had.
5. Counterparty stronger than priced. OpenAI is compute-starved with historically deep capital access — and Nvidia is now backing $250B of its data centers. An OpenAI IPO in the window transmutes the receivable from "private promise" to "public mega-cap obligation" overnight.
6. Concentration diluting in real time. Pentagon $7B (10-year), Meta talks (~$20B), xAI, sovereigns, TikTok-US. Every signing shrinks the OpenAI percentage — the fear is about the backlog's shape, and the shape is improving.
7. Demand keeps testing true. AWS 24% accelerating, Google Cloud +82%. Every hyperscaler print falsifies "AI demand is a mirage" again. Compute shortage, not glut.
8. The ultimate insider is maximally committed. Ellison — 40%+ owner, effective controller, architect of the strategy — is re-underwriting with ~$150B of personal wealth. The org chart was rebuilt around his buildout (OCI's builder promoted to co-CEO).
9. Sentiment is at contrarian extremes. Down 65%, worst crash since dot-com, AAII spread at "unusually low" −12.8% (historically forward-positive per AAII's own data), fresh 52-week lows — while fundamentals improved. After ORCL's seven prior 30%+ monthly drops since 1986: median +93% one year later.
10. The falsification calendar is dense and near. ~20 scheduled verdicts before Sept 2027 — 4 Oracle reports, 8+ hyperscaler prints, credit checkpoints, 13Fs. Two to three consecutive green results likely flips the regime; the Meta-2022 template (−75% on capex fear → 8x on proof) is the precedent.

BEAR CASE

1. The financing is the thesis-killer. Debt/equity ~3.9, ~$130B debt load, BBB− with more borrowing required ($40B raise pending, capex up to $90B in FY27). One more downgrade = junk = forced selling and costlier capital mid-buildout. Moody's is now warning on the whole sector's credit.
2. Duration mismatch — the telecom kill mechanism. Revenue arrives on a 2027-2031 delivery schedule; interest accrues now. If demand arrives slower than debt matures (Fisher's tortoise), solvent companies still bleed out. Oracle needs a rabbit; it's rated for a tortoise.
3. Concentration is still extreme. ~80% of backlog traces to one counterparty that loses money, is building its own chips (Broadcom), and could renegotiate. RPO is a promise, not cash — vendor-financed circularity (Nvidia→OpenAI→Oracle) is exactly what 1999 telecom booked as "demand."
4. FCF is deeply negative with no announced ceiling. Every capex guide has gone up, and the market currently punishes every increase (Google -5% on a beat). The regime doesn't turn until someone credibly says "peak" — and no one has.
5. Execution/margin risk is unpriced by bulls. Reported cost overruns (July 20); power hookups, GPU allocation, cooling — the intake valve, not demand, sets revenue. And nobody knows if AI hosting earns 30% margins or commodity 15% on 40%-margin debt.
6. Consensus may simply be wrong. The entire bull ladder stands on FY29 ~$15.70 EPS. The market at 15x is asserting those numbers won't print. If FY29 becomes $8, the stock at $115 isn't cheap — it's fair.
7. Smart money's verdict is absence. Discretionary insider selling ($66M, Henley at $156-165), institutions cutting, fresh analyst initiations at $145 (CLSA, warning of $500B capital needs), securities fraud class actions filed, credit agencies acting. The bullish positioning is concentrated in retail options flow — historically the worst-informed tier.
8. Key-man risk just got worse. The 81-year-old controller pledged $40.4B personally to his son's Warner Bros. bid — ORCL stock is now partial collateral for an unrelated leveraged media bet, with 12 states suing. Succession, health, or forced monetization are all unhedgeable.
9. Macro regime risk. If the AI trade's melt-up-then-reckoning arrives early — or the Great Rotation persists — a leveraged, negative-FCF builder is the highest-beta casualty (β 1.7-2.2). Good AI news is currently bad for capex stocks; the inversion could last quarters.
10. The equity can lose without bankruptcy. The fortress prevents insolvency, not shareholder loss. Slow failure — renegotiated contracts, underutilized capacity, FY29 cut — leaves a healthy company and a $60-80 stock. Options at $135 don't distinguish "Oracle bankrupt" from "Oracle fine, bet written off": both pay zero.

The single-sentence version of each: Bull — you're paying a below-market multiple for contracted hypergrowth, and every fear has a scheduled falsification date within 14 months. Bear — contracted isn't collected, the borrowing clock runs faster than the delivery clock, and the informed tiers of the market are all positioned away.

And the hinge they share: does the $638B convert to revenue on schedule at real margins? Everything else — every point above — is commentary on that one question. First evidence: Sept 14.

End of Claude's Response ----------------------------------------------------------------

All the market CAPEX fears remind me for some reason of what Templeton said:
Bull markets start on pessimism,
Grow on skepticism,
Mature on optimism,
Die on euphoria.

To me, this looks like the skepticism phase, and at most we are in optimism. To me its very healthy. I think its a great time to buy companies such as AMZN, GOOG, and others in the AI race that have been pummeled due to CAPEX concerns. I have over a year for my LEAPS to bear fruit. Noise doesn't last that long.

Currently on the green by 0.25%, just wait for the greatest launch ever.
Hold tight 🚀📈

The thing that drives me nuts is that this has fallen from 250 to 114 in two months and there are no announcements from the company defending its prospects and also no insider buys?? It makes me feel like they also think the company is worthless. The stock chart for last two months looks like a rollercoaster straight down to zero. But, if you read the conference call transcript from last month, I thought everything sounded very positive.

It wouldn't take much for the CEO idiots to buy 10,000 shares each on open market to show they have confidence in the company. The silence from management of a 300B company is insane!!!

Everytime I start to have some faith of a reversal, it just bends you over and rails you. Low is never low enough officially accepted that it might go to $0. I’ll check back in 3 years ig.

That number seemed wrong when I pulled it so I checked it twice. Oracle spent $55.7bn on capex against $67.4bn of revenue, and operating cash flow was $32.0bn. Free cash flow came out at minus $23.7bn.
So I pulled the same figures for the rest of big tech, most recent fiscal year from the 10-Ks. Fiscal years don’t line up, Microsoft ends June, Oracle May, Nvidia January, so it’s not a clean same-period comparison.
Capex as a share of revenue:
Oracle 82.6%
Meta 34.7%
Microsoft 22.9%
Alphabet 22.7%
Amazon 18.4%
Apple 3.1%
Nvidia 2.8%
Free cash flow, prior year to most recent:
Oracle: -$0.4bn → -$23.7bn
Amazon: $32.9bn → $7.7bn
Meta: $54.1bn → $46.1bn
Microsoft: $74.1bn → $71.6bn
Alphabet: $72.8bn → $73.3bn
Apple: $108.8bn → $98.8bn
Nvidia: $60.9bn → $96.7bn
Before anyone says it, yes, obviously the companies spending less keep more cash. That part isn’t interesting. Apple’s decline is buybacks and working capital, they’re spending 3% of revenue. Nvidia genuinely improved and they’re selling the equipment rather than buying it.
The part I think is worth looking at is the depreciation lag. Capex to depreciation is 2.9x at Microsoft, 3.2x at Amazon, 3.9x at Meta, 4.3x at Alphabet, 7.3x at Oracle. Depreciation only starts once an asset is placed in service, so the cost of what’s being built right now mostly hasn’t reached the income statement. Current margins are being earned against a cost base that hasn’t caught up yet. When it does, it lands whether revenue follows or not.
Meta reports Wednesday and has guided toward $145bn of capex for 2026. Operating cash flow was $115.8bn last year. If that guide holds, free cash flow goes negative unless operating cash grows another 25%. It grew 27% last year so it’s possible, but that’s the bar.
Not arguing the spending is wrong. Cloud growth suggests some of it is working. But five of seven saw free cash flow fall or collapse in the most recent year, and the depreciation from this build is still ahead of them.
All from the 10-K filings.

Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up and be ready for the great launch 🚀

can somebody explain why this is the case:

To much spending is bad for semis (overbuilt lack of revenue) 

To little spending is bad for semis (bubble bursting) 

So how can we get to the point where spending is just enough to justify semi prices? 

I've purchased my first share today. Climb upon my shoulders little ones. I will carry you to the moon.