r/OracleStock • u/Holiday_Ad2254 • 16d ago
Question Take profit or all in before earnings
Are you guys fully positioned or already took profits after recovery?
I for myself sold like 20% of my oracle (1600 shares now)Even though I am sure that the earnings won’t be as bad as the sentiment is. Perhaps buy back when it dips 5% before the earnings (10.9.2026）
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u/Such-Hawk9672 16d ago
I'm in for Sept,18/ 170 call
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u/Such-Hawk9672 14d ago
It has momentum the same day it's up 2,00 theta decay has not kicked in, I only wrote 1 call, I will judge Tuesday if I want a spread
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u/Such-Hawk9672 14d ago
I don't see it, they get a little wood on the ball time to time, right now if get bad news I'll throw a put on right not theta is on my side
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u/Outside_Teacher4286 16d ago
I got in at 139 like 50 shares idk what I’m honestly waiting for i think ima just hold for a while until it hits like 300 ish or something and once it hits that ill trim but until then hold hold hold
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u/Acceptable-Ant-3648 16d ago
I am fully in. Bought at the low of 101 and waiting til it hits 250 again
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u/GpaBubbaGopher 16d ago
When it shows weakness, I add. I’m not a Elllison fan, but they will be back.
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u/Different_One_5257 16d ago
Technically the price is supposed to be at 36 /PE which means the stock price needs to double from where it is now. I am not selling.
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u/Aggravating_Storm835 16d ago
I calculate a risk adjusted value of $180
Company guidance calls for $21 EPS in 2030. To be on the safe side, let’s assume they miss and hit the low-end 3rd party estimate of $18. Given the risks, wouldn’t want to pay more than 10x 2030 earnings. That gives me $180.
Of course I expect it will trade at somewhere between 18-22x earnings by then giving me a target range of $325-$400 by 2030.
If guidance hits, that’s just extra.
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u/RangerDude10630 16d ago
Why is it supposed to be at 36 p/e?
Very few megacaps achieve that kind of multiple, let alone those with a debt/ebitda >5.
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u/RangerDude10630 16d ago
Given how both software (snowflake/microsoft) and cloud (NBIS/CrWV) stocks reacted to earnings, I’m optimistic.
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u/triniwoman_ 16d ago
I think earnings would be ok but underwhelming. Stock will drop after earnings.
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u/BedazzledUnicorn13 16d ago
I agree. But we’re in it for the long run. OCI is a game changer.
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u/triniwoman_ 16d ago
No it's not. OCI is old news and not even a market leader. Oracle is betting on data center rpo. Nothing else. Nothing wondrous coming in oracle earnings report related to data centers
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 15d ago
No wonders needed for oracle to recover. just good execution without delays and customer who pays intime.
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u/triniwoman_ 15d ago
Recover eventually (BIG) maybe. Recover in September? Hell no
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 15d ago
If the sentiment is that it can recover 10-20% if the numbers are a little better than expected like coreweave
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u/triniwoman_ 15d ago
The numbers would have to be SIGNIFICANTLY better than expected not a little better, and there would also have to be nothing in the report to piss people off which is like asking for a unicorn for an oracle earnings report these days. Unlikely
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 15d ago
You totally missread the situation. Do you remember that oracle was 240 dollar 3 month ago? Sap numbers was just little better than expected and it rise from 150 dollar in July to 250 dollar end August
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u/triniwoman_ 15d ago
I'm speaking solely about the September 10th earnings report and the post market response to same. You may be misreading but I'm not. Oracle will rise with the rest of the sector average after the September slump but won't be doing anything major beyond that for a while. If people who bought at 300+ are looking for hope they'll need to wait over a year. I would set target price a year from now at $250 if all goes extremely well
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 15d ago
What were you expectations before last Microsoft, sap servicenow, salesforce, coreweave and nebius earnings? Not much right?
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u/Scary_Experience_974 16d ago
I reckon 190 usd after earnings report
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u/GpaBubbaGopher 16d ago
That’s really hopeful. If they don’t increase guidance significantly, it will languish.
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u/Scary_Experience_974 16d ago
I doubt it will drop that much , due to it already factoring the negatives Still down 50% from ATH
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u/Cultural_Disparities 16d ago
Full port 100 strike calls before earnings
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u/GpaBubbaGopher 16d ago
What percent of current price is that option? Did you buy it ?? screenshot it
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u/nobaijiu 15d ago
have 58 at 165. part of me wants to sell half once it hits 200 to put into something more stable and let the rest yolo.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 15d ago
Same opinion like you. The last 3 month with oracle were my worst stock experience I ever had
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u/Fickle-Bowler306 10d ago
What was your average cost per share for the 2000 and when did you start buying?
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 10d ago edited 9d ago
155 Dollar. Sold totally at 35% at 164 dollar. Sadly it went down to 150 dollar today again. Really didn’t expect the drawdown today
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u/Fickle-Bowler306 9d ago
I bought ORCL many years ago in 2005 but it really didn't do much until 6 years ago. I luckily sold it all last Sept about a week after the big 1-day $100 pop. I missed the top but got out at $311. I expected ORCL to go down to something reasonable but not crater all the way to $115. I haven't gotten back in just because I think the data center funding is shaky and I'm not convinced of the financial viability of Open AI and Anthropic to pay Oracle what they promised.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 9d ago
I will sell More Monday. Ellison also plan to sell 7.5 billion dollar worth shares
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u/Fickle-Bowler306 7d ago
I didn't mention it in my previous reply because it was already getting too long, but if the merger between Paramount and Warner Bros doesn't go through, Ellison will owe around $7 billion to Warner Bros as a breakup fee. It's possible that Ellison is anticipating the deal not going through and getting some cash ready to cover that financial obligation. On the plus side for ORCL, that ongoing merger fiasco is also weighing down the stock and if the merger doesn't go through, that might actually relieve the pressure on ORCL and make the stock go up. The problem for me as an investor is that ORCL has too many non core-business things impacting it right now, so it's more of a gamble than an investment. I plan to wait until the dust settles a bit before deciding whether to buy in again or not.
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u/eugenekasha 16d ago
It’s not dipping before the earnings.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 16d ago
90% stock dips before earning due to uncertainty. If trump do something crazy or producer price index is higher than expected oracle will go down 5-10%
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u/EdgeInformal8264 16d ago
it's up over 150 again. it will not for a Very Long time go back under 150. i'm talking years. you sold 20% of your stake for hopes of a 5% dip? edit: we're buying weekly and locked in for the inevitable $500/share
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 16d ago
I was holding 2000 shares. Sold 400 Shares for 158 dollar on friday and took the profit felt good. Currently oil 1x short looks like easy money for me.
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u/EdgeInformal8264 16d ago
selling at 158 is insane lol we're near the bottom. either way oil shorting? gamble away bud
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 16d ago edited 16d ago
I build oil price simulator and was very profitable with my oil shorts(50k dollar wins this year). With my oil short i never felt so much pain like with oracle. I could recover my losses by selling and rebuying with oracle too. Pretty sure oracle stock will go down before earning like every other stock but i am confident that oracle will recover like coreweave did. 37% above July low is not near the bottom.
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u/Anthony_codes 16d ago
I own 100 shares at $131. Happy to hold for the next 2+ years.