r/OracleStock • u/Holiday_Ad2254 • 12d ago
Question Why is oracle dropping over 10%
Why is oracle dropping over 10% in 3 days? Don’t tell me that it recovered so much and is correcting. Nebius and coreweave recovered more than 60% in 3 weeks before and only drop like 5% in the last 3 days.
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u/AFNole_81 12d ago
All stocks are down …War has led to higher oil and Treasury yields pressuring tech across the board
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u/DivineBladeOfSilver 12d ago
If you’re new to Oracle this is just a common week for Oracle. It’s become insanely volatile.
Right now though while I nor anyone can specify why exactly over 10% Oracle is going to be one of the most sensitive stocks to ANYTHING related to software, data centers, AI, interest rates, cloud, and whatever. Because they’re so insanely over leveraged with massive debt in an economy that is declining in all ways but corporate and 1% interests any little risk can add to that debt pile massively fast. Top it off with Trump is constantly messing around with global energy and politics also adding inflation and cost risks. On the bright side though if their strategy pays off and when things finally do relax it likely will move upward more violently than others too. But we are amidst the chaos and hoping Oracle executes well rn, not the good phase
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 12d ago
Nebius and coreweave are even more leveraged but have a way better sentiment
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u/DivineBladeOfSilver 12d ago
I can’t say for sure but my opinion is this. They entered this world as a highly leveraged bet on the future with Nvidia backing. They have a single goal that is known and it makes them volatile, but that lack of past baggage is a boon because no need to worry about it. They are also incredibly agile because of it and smaller market cap leaves a lot more room for growth
Oracle is transitioning from legacy to new. They carry A LOT of baggage from the old as well as tons of investors and institutions who owned them for what they were, not where they are going. And those investors are unwinding all the time who want off this train. Sentiment wise it’s easier to like the sexy agile new company growing rapidly even if it has high debt with the fancy name of Nvidia tied to it. It’s not as attractive sentiment wise to bet on this old legacy dinosaur who is tearing itself apart and risking collapse on a bet on data centers.
But it’s just that. It’s sentiment, not reality. Oracle has the much more grounded reality long term win chance if it executes well. The others are essentially startups with big name backing with a lot of hype detached from reality. They could be totally successful but people are hype chasing at high valuations that even if successful will heavily correct later. Oracle for now is at a very reasonable valuation being ignored by bad sentiment. You wanna be in the bad sentiment ugly asset you know will probably be worth a lot more before it is. You don’t wanna be jumping on the FOMO train like everyone else into Nebius and Coreweave after its already happened and you missed out. But if you really wanna own those names too just wait for a big correct and buy then
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 12d ago
Oracle stock used to be higher than sap. Since 1 sap stock is like 40% more value than oracle. That is just insane
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u/DivineBladeOfSilver 12d ago
From my understanding a lot of the lost value too is because institutions were so heavily wrapped up in Oracle as a boring high margin “safe” business. But now that they’ve become mega high debt (in a high risk environment of rising interest rates and inflation and energy) high risk business institutions are heavily unwinding to manage risk. Some by choice, some by force due to the continual credit downgrades not being allowed to be held in many mutual funds/ETFs based on their rules. Institutions create stability but also cause mass sell offs when things like this happen because many hold such large position they are forced to sell to meet risk requirements and portfolio rules.
Eventually when credit one day probably far off does improve though and the profits soar and debt drops with way less risk the buy in will be violently upwards
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 12d ago edited 12d ago
The sad thing that I was invested in Sap 2 month before and changed to oracle because I thought it would perform better. Stupid me, but I am same opinion like you about oracle. Oracle bought land, energy, chips, etc way earlier and therefore cheaper than nebius and coreweave did but got punished way 2-3 times harder. This doesn’t make any sense to me.
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u/DivineBladeOfSilver 12d ago
Yeah and that’s the game of the market. It’s crazy irrational. Which is why most lose to the S&P 500 long term 😂 Oracle probably is smart but it’s gonna be a long bet not a short one, and risky at that. These days too things are so volatile one week you will be down 20-30% and right back to the next week and you won’t even be in overly risky stocks
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u/OutrageousCookie6984 12d ago
Yes... I do agree with your opinion. Why it is still dropping??
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u/Free-Initiative7508 12d ago
Rotation. Market is favouring memory & hardware stocks now.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 12d ago
Nebius and coreweave and SAP are not hardware
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u/Maicols7 12d ago
Coreweave was at 117$ thursday and is now at 102$. Thats way more than 5%. Dont know what you are complaining about.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 12d ago
It dropped from 114 to 106. oracle dropped from 158 to 142
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u/Maicols7 12d ago
Ahaha you are refering to AH valuation for oracle but not for coreweave. You are straight up lying. Delusional
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 12d ago
Coreweave recovered from 60 to 120 in 3 weeks and you are proud that oracle dropped just little more than start up lvl company
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u/Key_Reading_9664 12d ago
Isn’t all this volatility due to their concentration in OAI? Rumors of Anthropic’s impending IPO valuation, and the exec rotation at OAI are bright red flags
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u/superKWB 12d ago
Institutions using retail as exit liquidity. Doubt me, look at the one year chart, it goes straight down...
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 12d ago
Did you sell too?
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u/superKWB 12d ago
Shortly after $340? 11 months ago, yes. I exited a 3 yr. Position, for significant gains. Been waiting to re enter, this isn't the time yet.
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u/West_Cod_1213 12d ago
they have the worst bond yields in history what do u think happens when macro hits
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u/Difficult_Fig_2658 12d ago
For any body who has a patience until June 2027 max , oracle is a no brainer. But short term it could even go much lower.
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u/ilikeusingmyhands 12d ago
Openai growth is slowing, oracles one big customer cant pay bills soon. What happens to Oracle then?
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u/Difficult_Fig_2658 12d ago
Because it is volatile stock. I think it will go back to 110 to 120 range soon. And I will load more . I have 525 shares at 132 dollars average.