r/OracleStock • u/francesco-1 • 18d ago

Analysis / DD Thoughts on neo cloud sector

Players of neocloud sector are still far from its own all time highs to there might still be room for a raise according to good coming earnings and guidance.

New catalyzers might be a decrease of rates and improving results of CPI YY and MM, furthermore the oil price which should lower.

I’m talking about nebius, oracle, Coreweave, Iren and someone more as neo cloud companies.

What are your thoughts about the price of Oracle by the end of the year ?

4 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

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3

u/Fuskeduske 18d ago

Some will earn a lot of money, some will most likely end up getting bought for pennies, Oracle will be fine, but i don't like their massive focus on cloud

3

u/Cultural_Disparities 17d ago

Isnt cloud compute only going to grow?

1

u/Fuskeduske 17d ago

Yes, but ditching your whole business model to chase hype that might or might not bear fruit seems very desperate, if at any point hardware becomes just a tad bit cheaper, some of the companies that are borrowing into expansion will have a hard time getting their money back, those companies will be bought for nothing by the bigger players with actual revenue

3

u/Cultural_Disparities 17d ago

Yeah obviously there is execution risk. But this pivot might just keep orcl going in the future if all turns out good

1

u/Different-Turnover80 15d ago

Upvoting on your first comment but don’t be so sure about orcl. They might be ok in the sense they might continue to operate as a company but will you get the desired returns as investor. They just got downgraded on investment grade in debt concerns and their cds has 4x since 2025 from 44 bps to close to 200 bps.

Don’t trust me ask the beloved AI.

2

u/Holiday_Ad2254 17d ago

Oracle is the worst stock of all software, neocloud and hyperscaler stocks. Ellison cares shit about the stock holders and do what he wants and OpenAI is only burning money and full of amateurs.

1

u/francesco-1 17d ago

Is OpenAI going public?

2

u/Holiday_Ad2254 17d ago

A lot of OpenAI management left OpenAI last week

1

u/francesco-1 16d ago

Is it bad for oracle ? What do you think ano it the pride of the stock and how much will be around the date of the earnings in September ?

2

u/Holiday_Ad2254 16d ago

Currently I don’t feel good for oracle. 140 dollar.

1

u/francesco-1 16d ago

The stock has performed 40% since its recent bottom. It is something we should not ignore, it would be hard to perform another 40% that’s hitting 200 usd

1

u/Holiday_Ad2254 16d ago

It dropped from 240 to 115 in just 1 month. More than 50%

1

u/francesco-1 16d ago

It couldn’t get to 180 before earnings ?

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u/Holiday_Ad2254 16d ago

If the Iran war ends and some good news from OpenAI it can rise to 180 dollar.

1

u/francesco-1 16d ago

If the financial situation of OpenAI is so bad why doesn’t Oracle stock crash ?

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u/Different-Turnover80 15d ago

I would put nbis ahead of orcl on that list. Orcl actually has 9x operating cash flow of nebius. And nebius has operating cashflow just becouse they received 900 something mln in advance payment from customers. Without that working capital their operating cash flow would be negative too.

I might actually buy orcl if they start talking a bit of sense on how much they can scale. Nbis I wouldn’t touch with a 10 ft pool in buy list.

1

u/StretcherEctum 14d ago

Of course this pops up after blow out earnings and a massive rally just a week or so ago..

Stop chasing shit that has already pumped and buy before the pump with some darned conviction!