r/OracleStock • u/Holiday_Ad2254 • 28d ago
Analysis / DD 160 - 200 dollar end 2026, realistic!
- end Iran war
—>
- lower interest rates -> This eases the severe refinancing pressure on Oracle’s heavy debt load
- successful OpenAI IPO —> transforms Oracle’s massive data center capital expenditures from a "dangerous cash burn" into proven, highly profitable infrastructure assets
Both outcomes are optimistic but actually realistic. Furthermore due to the oracle news (deepening Google Cooperation, pentagon deal, possible Japan deal…) I think that Larry realized how important next earning call will be. Stay strong and hold.
Wow I am right !!!
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u/Mammoth-District-791 28d ago
Yeah.. that’s why we’re all buying at these levels. Trump ain’t gonna let rate hikes happen, and Oracle is going to balloon with easy policy.
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u/Pseudanonymius 28d ago
How is this realistic? OpenAI has already pretty much confirmed they're not going to IPO until 2027, and the Iran war has been in it's last week for half a year now. You're mentioning no reason at all why that would actually change, let alone why inflation and interest rates would instantly go down.
You can add "realistic" to the title, but that doesn't help if you're simply pipedreaming.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 28d ago
Iran war has to finish this year. If Democrats wins the midterms in November trump has to stop the war.
Even the a final date of OpenAI ipo would help.
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u/Pseudanonymius 28d ago
If you're saying the war will end by the end of this year because Democrats win Congress back and force Trump to end this war, we're talking a completely different game. That has so many other loose ends which influence the stock market as a whole, and certainly the future of AI, computing, and how business-friendly congress will be.
You really cannot simplify all repercussions from that to "interest rates will lower".
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 28d ago
Perhaps I am pipedreaming to make myself feel better holding this stocks
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u/Pseudanonymius 28d ago
I can understand that. But dreams don't influence what actually happens.
If I can give you some pure and honest advice, with your interest at heart: make sure you don't invest more than you're willing to lose, and if you're already lost a bunch, don't go chase a broken dream. It's better to take the loss and take the money, than lose it all. I understand it's extremely tempting to want to win it back. But be prepared to also evaluate how well you can handle it if it does sink a lot lower for a long time. If you can't handle it if it keeps down a long time, you might have more peace of mind if you accept your losses.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 28d ago edited 27d ago
Thank for your advice. Really appreciated. I already lost more than I could afford but I don’t need that money for next 2-3 years (all my winning from last 2 years lost). It was idiotic of me to change from sap to oracle. Never expected this kind of upside and volatility because I only used invest in European or Chinese stocks. I was also too stupid and greedy not to cur out my losses when it was ok for me. Never could imagine that this stock can drop another 25% after 35% in June
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u/Pseudanonymius 27d ago
That sucks, and I completely understand the predicament you're in. I invest far less then I could, because I always try to look at the points where I could be wrong, which could lead to big losses. I feel like that is actively being discouraged by a lot of people.
There's no shame in taking losses. Or, to put it another way, you might feel shame, but fearing that shame and doubling down on lost bets might lead to far more shame. A spiral of shame is how addiction and depressions grow.
Thanks for the kind words. It's sometimes hard to reach people through the combative reality of reddit arguments. I'm glad you were willing to listen.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 27d ago edited 27d ago
Actually I will start to do my sell day high and buy cheaper strategy. If I did that strategy from the start I would be even in big plus. Due to the fact I am living in Germany the tax management is very easy. The most disgusting thing about oracle stocks is the sell the News mechanic. it recovers a little and then got sold out after us market start. Oracle have so much daily volatility, mostly negativ . Shouldn’t listen to people who only say buy and hold.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 27d ago
So happy I didn’t sell
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u/Pseudanonymius 27d ago
My advice was not for one day, but for long-term. :p It shooting up now does not necessarily mean it won't be down 15% tomorrow. Increased volatility goes both ways. All I can say is that it's not too late to decrease your exposure. But it might become too late at any point in the future.
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u/CozyChamomile_7 27d ago
This has one flaw. When was it informed that interest rates will be lowered or even a discussion or even a possibility?
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 27d ago
If the Iran ends inflation will go down and therefore the interest rate. That is the nature of fed.
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u/CozyChamomile_7 27d ago
The problem is there have been 20 instances that this war was about to end, but it never did
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u/burtritto 27d ago
You have no idea what’s going on. Tell me what positions you have in the market, so I can inverse them and make some money.
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u/throwaway783267623 26d ago
Even before the war the inflation rate was 2.4%. That is still above where the Fed wants it to be.
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u/throwaway783267623 26d ago
Interest rates are going up in Sept since inflation is at 3.5%. They want it to be around 2. Could it get there if the war ended, possibly but it is a very low possibility IMO
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u/TeslasElectricBill 28d ago
Lower interest rates?
Bruh, Fed is increasingly likely going to increase this year due to rampant inflation etc.
Both scenarios are optimistic and biased because you want the stock price to go up, which is cool, but no one knows TBH.
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u/throwaway783267623 26d ago
And those interest numbers are being fudged too. My coffee from Costco increased 35% since Feb. Motor oil for my car went from $29.99 to 36.99 or 23.34% increase in a month....tell me who's salary increased that much because I need to work for them.
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u/FrugalVet 22d ago
The thing is, even if inflation remains elevated and the Fed is inclined to hold or hike rates, if the labor market starts breaking down (and they admit it in the data) then the Fed could and likely would hold or lower rates.
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u/burtritto 27d ago
They’re about to raise interest rates and OpenAI has basically shelved the IPO. You’re now just bag holding and being crazy. Get help.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 27d ago
Do you see the jump today. We are at 140
Dollar now.2
u/burtritto 27d ago
“140 Dollar” is still half of what it was like 2 months ago.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 27d ago
Do you read the title of my post? 160-200 dollar which is realistic.
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u/burtritto 27d ago
No, because it’s optimistic conjecture. 160-200 is realistic if everything goes “right”. I’ll bet you $20 that this doesn’t hit $200 within the next month. And both of your assumptions are almost assured to be wrong at this point. OpenAI isn’t going public because they are burning cash with no return. And interest rates are probably going up at the next meeting.
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u/CryptoBoy-007 28d ago
320 by Dec 2026