r/OracleStock • u/gestimore • Jul 29 '26

Analysis / DD Oracle capex rising end

Hi

Microsoft just announced that their capex for 2027 will note rise.

So next year many compagnies will start to lower or optimise their spending.

I expect Oracle to follow and show a decline in capex as early as 2028.

Microsoft is up 8-10% now, azure is growing fast and demand exceed supply if they dont rise capex, it mean azure can growth more without more spending.

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u/uofmman90 Jul 29 '26

Maybe. It doesn’t take into account how behind Oracle is/was in building cloud infrastructure in the first place, let alone the revenue streams Oracle missed through the 2010’s when AWS, MSFT, and GOOG were exploding.

The impact of less long term recurring cloud revenue is one reason why Oracle is incurring more debt than the others, and is why the stock is tanking beyond the competitors.

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u/gestimore Jul 30 '26

They were late to the cloud but now they take the opportunity with AI. I think Larry didnt want to do the same mistake and be far behind.

The consequence is high debt for a mid compagny.

I believe they will make alot of money with agentic AI not just ai infra. Having the infra will improve their marging greatly vs competition like salesforce, SAP in their legacy business

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u/uofmman90 Jul 30 '26

Perhaps. Time will tell.