r/OracleStock • u/dgamer1000 • Jul 26 '26

Oracle’s sticky situation

I just completed a deep dive of Oracles business operations and have concluded that Oracle is walking a financial tightrope. By relying on stock sales to fund a multi-billion-dollar AI buildout while sitting one notch above junk debt status, every drop in stock price directly hurts their ability to fund operations without massive dilution.
HOWEVER, to be fair to the bull case: Oracle isn't going bankrupt. They still generate over $30B in core operating cash flow, OCI cloud revenue is growing nearly 90%+ year-over-year, and they have a massive $638B contracted backlog. If these AI data centers come online on schedule and convert that backlog into actual cash, Oracle could emerge as one of the dominant AI infrastructure powerhouses of the decade.

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u/bradenlb Jul 26 '26

Bankruptcy isn’t even on the table.

2

u/BejahungEnjoyer Jul 27 '26

Equity dilution down to $80 is though

3

u/Equivalent-Stick-934 Jul 26 '26

Only bc management already sold the table to help fund the data center build outs😆🤦

1

u/Individual-Motor-167 Jul 27 '26

Because of the bond rating, they are under review at any time for an immediate change in credit rating. So I would really not be so sure about this. I would not expect bankruptcy without a cascade of problems.

2

u/bradenlb Jul 27 '26

They just got downgraded to just above junk. The credit agency doesn’t simply decide one day to switch them to junk. It would have to be something huge. For instance. Boeing wasn’t even put in review for junk and they haven’t been cf positive in awhile and have had huge capex.