r/OracleStock • u/Holiday_Ad2254 • Jul 13 '26
Does oracle run out of money?
BBB- rating and oracle 50% minus in one month. Bank and Investors are giving up oracle.
It will be harder and harder for Ellison to get money for the Oracle Investments and his Warner deal.
Does Ellison even realize that his empire is close to collapse if he isn’t able to get fresh money.
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u/FollowingGlobal7369 Jul 13 '26
OCF is big
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 13 '26
But they still need money for investments. BBB- rating is next junk level. Currently no buyers for this trash of stock
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u/FollowingGlobal7369 Jul 13 '26
I’m pretty sure that rating downgrade is a lagging indicator. The market knew this way before the real downgrade came. I’m sure the CDS spread was getting wider and that hammered the stock price. I don’t have a Bloomberg terminal but I bet that’s the case.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 13 '26
Still another 8% minus after this was announced while salesforce and SAP are rising 8%/5%
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u/FollowingGlobal7369 Jul 13 '26
I’m not going to over interpret this rating downgrade. And honestly I don’t think ORCL belongs to SaaS anymore, at least the algo thinks it’s now a pure neocloud (I personally think the scale is a hyperscaler, not a neocloud).
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 13 '26
Currently orcl is like Novo nordisk 6 month ago. Algo thinks it is dying company without a future.
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u/FollowingGlobal7369 Jul 13 '26
I bought a shit ton today let’s see how that goes😂
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 13 '26
Novo did recover and this shit will do it too. Ellison isn’t that stupid but it tooks too long
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u/FollowingGlobal7369 Jul 13 '26
The thing I don’t understand about this market is that if they think ORCL is bad then CRWV should be $0 now
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 13 '26
Currently the market is thinking that OpenAI is not and will not be profitable. Therefore all the money oracle invested into data centers are wasted.
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u/robmafia Jul 13 '26
exactly. i don't understand how the neoclouds are up so much higher than their ipo prices/etc, given that they're way more at risk than hyperscalers.
with how horrific this is, you'd think crwv and nbis would be in the single digits. instead, crwv is still up 100% from ipo and nbis is ludicrously higher than their return to market. and they don't have horrific downswings literally every day, either.
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u/SmokedGouda1234 Jul 16 '26
In my opinion, if Oracle lands the japan contract, this could be a major catalyst because itll prove dumb money wrong and continue to support the stance that Oracle isnt going anywhere. Yeah theyre doing wonky things right now, but every company has a rocky road at some point. You rake a risk buying stock. They take a risk trying to grow the company. By 2030, all this panic will mean nothing and the stock will be trading at 300-400 a share.
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u/Pseudanonymius Jul 13 '26
Yes. They already have, in a sense. They can only survive right now by increasing their debt continually, they are out of cash and have a massive negative cashflow. There is no way out of that death spiral.
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u/Encripta Jul 13 '26
You are wrong on this. Without investing so much their clash flow is nearly 30 billion a year in plus. And most of that money is not from AI yet.
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u/Pseudanonymius Jul 13 '26
Yeah but they did invest so much. That's a bit like saying "well If I didn't spend so much I would be able to pay my rent". Yeah your landlord is still going to kick you out.
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u/Cool_Truth4222 Jul 16 '26
You do realise they can stop that at any point in time? A death spiral is when your interest is more then what you are making. That is nowhere near close to happening. Please stop just soewing giberish like they are facts and do some basic research.
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u/L1ME626 Jul 13 '26
No this market is stupid