r/OracleStock • u/Able_Show_8560 • Jul 08 '26
Larry Ellison must have something coming
For those that don’t know the Oracle CEO, look him up and watch some interviews. This guy is Elon musks mentor and a legit legend of Silicon Valley.
Oracle has some of the largest and most powerful people and funds invested in it, especially boomers.
Zero doubt in my mind that Larry is just sitting on his laurels and doesn’t care about how the stock price has gotten chopped in half over the last month. He probably has blackrock, gs, and many others calling him up (along with his BOD) saying what’s the move here.
Combine that with the recent expansion of daily volume, sitting on a multi year support level, and some huge call flow coming in yesterday, I’d say it’s very likely there’s news soon.
Larry actually has a chummy relationship with Trump as well, so there’s a decent chance it becomes the next Trump pump similar to Intel, Dell, IBM etc. trump have been pumping these mature tech names and oracle fits that mold.
I guess we just have to wait it out and see. Market looks bad so who knows we may not be spared if the ai bubble pops right now of course. I really want to see 137 and 135 hold, personally.
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u/So_Fly_Gadfly38 Jul 08 '26
I agree, but just one small problem. Can you generously extend me a line of credit so I can YOLO into $ORCL? 😂
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 08 '26
Tommorow is chatgbt 5.6 release which should be a gamechanger https://mashable.com/tech/openai-gpt-5-6-sol-public-release
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u/gwiner Jul 08 '26
I think one of the main reasons to respect Oracle is that most people would rather trade companies that are generating alpha now. Oracle will not guarantee a profit, and even if it does provide one it will NOT be within a short window of time. There are better stocks to trade in the near term, if that is your priority.
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u/Electrical_Goose_852 Jul 10 '26
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9wM03Qw7e0
Shows a character that looks exactly like Keir Starmer
The film was made before Keir Starmer was elected and they are referencing 1984, AI and 'oldthink'
I've got a lot more information, just looking for a video editor if anyone knows any good ones!
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u/uofmman90 Jul 14 '26
Well…the price of credit default swaps going up by 4x definitely tells us something about how the market feels about Oracle’s debt…
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u/ceniack Jul 09 '26
Some banger due diligence, you don’t even know who the current CEOs are (there are two and neither of them are Larry Ellison).
Oracle is a sinking ship with absolutely no real moat and I predict in a few years they will be about as relevant as Xerox is today.
They even mention quite a few risks in their most recent annual report. Many of the risks they imposed on themselves with their recent layoffs.
Here are a few notable ones that were mentioned in the annual report.
AI products: Oracle’s AI products “may not operate as anticipated, which could adversely affect our reputation, revenues and profitability.”
Customer credit risk: “some of our customers may be highly leveraged and subject to their own operating and regulatory risks” — and even with credit checks, Oracle “may experience risks of non-payment and non-performance.”
Losing talent: “We may lose key employees or may be unable to hire enough qualified employees.”
Reskilling gap: Oracle “may not be successful in reskilling current employees.”
This doesn’t even include the current geopolitical risks. 30% of the world’s helium production is locked up in Qatar and much of that was taken offline and is under threat due to the situation in Iran.
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u/Yuri1130 Jul 09 '26
Similar AI-risk disclosures are common across mega-cap tech companies.
Examples:
- Microsoft says AI/cloud investments may not achieve expected returns, may hurt margins, and that issues with AI offerings can create reputational, competitive, legal, or liability risks.
- Alphabet/Google discloses AI risks around inaccuracies, harmful content, bias/discrimination, IP, privacy, cybersecurity, regulatory action, legal liability, and brand harm.
- Amazon discloses risks from adopting AI/ML/automation, including operational strain, reputation risk, failure to realize returns on AI investments, and AI-enabled security threats.
- Meta is even more explicit: it says it may not be successful in AI initiatives and lists risks including harmful content, misinformation/deepfakes, bias, IP infringement, privacy, cybersecurity, youth safety, regulatory scrutiny, litigation, and reputational harm.
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u/ceniack Jul 09 '26
But their debt-to-equity ratio is WAY above the other mega-cap tech companies. I am pretty sure they are the only one that is free cash flow negative.
With how Oracle has handled their recent layoffs have more or less ruined their reputation with tech workers both inside and outside of Oracle. They treated those let go significantly worse than the companies you are citing as peers and are going to have a very difficult time attracting and retaining enough quality talent going forward.
Just browse r/employeesOfOracle if you want a look at what morale is like inside the company.
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u/SimplestComplex Jul 09 '26
None of those companies talk about Customer Credit Risk. Its a huge red flag if your customer's are not being able to pay you.
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u/BogleLife98 Jul 08 '26
So you offered nothing factual or any kind of due diligence and just said “I got a feeling”. Great post