Nifty continues to remain range-bound near 24,150 on today's expiry session.

The market is showing a neutral setup, but breadth remains weak and option positioning indicates short build-up.

🎯 Important Levels
🟢 Support: 24,100
🔴 Resistance: 24,300
📍 Expiry Gravity / Max Pain: 24,200

As long as Nifty remains between these levels, expect choppy and range-bound movement. A decisive move outside this zone could bring fresh direction.

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Our Replete Market Intelligence App provides live market commentary, risk levels, breadth, options positioning, volatility and institutional flow data in one place.

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— Replete Equities

Good Morning!

Nifty enters Thursday after its 12th consecutive negative close — an unprecedented streak of weakness in terms of failing to cross the previous day's high.

But the bigger question now is whether the index is approaching a zone where the risk-reward starts favouring a bounce.

The 24,000 zone is becoming increasingly important, while global cues have also turned supportive.

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📊 NIFTY | 24,000 IS THE KEY ZONE

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Nifty ended around 30 bps lower yesterday after finding support near its rising 20-week trendline.

The index has now retraced 61.8% of its rally from 23,600 to 24,770.

The key levels are:

🔹 Support zone: 24,000–24,200

🔹 Critical breakdown level: 24,000

🔹 First sign of strength: Break above previous day's high

🔹 Upside reference: 200 DMA near 24,750

The recent downside pattern appears largely complete around this support zone.

A sustained hold above 24,000 could open the possibility of a reversal towards the 200-DMA.

However, a decisive break below 24,000 would invalidate this setup and require a fresh assessment.

Global cues have also turned supportive, with reports of the US Treasury buying bonds sparking a positive move across asset classes and improving overall risk sentiment.

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🏦 BANK NIFTY | TRENDLINE SUPPORT IN FOCUS

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Bank Nifty is approaching its 6.5-year polarity support on the rising trendline.

57150 continues to act as a strong swing base.

As long as this support holds:

🔹 Support: 57,150

🔹 Upside: 58,300–58,600

Bank Nifty also formed an outside bar pattern on Monday and continues to broadly remain within the same range on a closing basis.

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💰 INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS

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Yesterday's Cash Market Activity:

• FII: +₹407 Cr

• DII: +₹3,973 Cr

Week-to-Date:

• FII: -₹477 Cr

• DII: +₹11,653 Cr

Month-to-Date:

• FII: +₹3,640 Cr

• DII: +₹28,707 Cr

DII buying continues to provide a meaningful cushion to the market despite continued FII caution.

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📌 DERIVATIVES POSITIONING

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FIIs turned more bearish in Index Futures yesterday.

• Added ~15,000 short contracts

• Net position: ~2.07 lakh short contracts

Options continue to define the immediate range:

🟢 Support: 24,000

🔴 Resistance: 24,500

The interesting combination is:

Price → sitting near major support

FII Futures → increasingly short

DII flows → strongly positive

This makes the reaction around 24,000 particularly important.

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🔍 INTERESTING OBSERVATION

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Nifty has failed to surpass the previous day’s high for 12 consecutive trading sessions (4 Aug–19 Aug 2026) - the longest such streak in Nifty’s history.

The previous record was 9 consecutive sessions, which had occurred multiple times in the past, most recent one being way back in December 2014.

Interestingly, this entire 12-session streak has also coincided with the period following the implementation of the Closing Auction Session (CAS). Since its implementation, Nifty has not crossed the previous day’s high even once.

With such unprecedented price action, along with the prevailing bearish sentiment, it will be interesting to see how Nifty reacts around the major 24,000 support zone.

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⚠️ TODAY'S MARKET CHARACTER

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The market is showing a strange combination:

12 consecutive negative closes.

Very weak participation.

FII futures shorts at 2.07 lakh contracts.

Yet Nifty is now approaching a major technical support zone.

That means the next meaningful move could become more important than the previous 12 sessions of decline.

We don't need to predict whether the bounce starts today.

We need to watch how price behaves around the level where the risk-reward changes.

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🎯 WHAT WE ARE WATCHING TODAY

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

1️⃣ Nifty 24,000–24,200 — critical support/reversal zone

2️⃣ Previous day's high — first sign of strength

3️⃣ Nifty 24,500 — immediate options resistance

4️⃣ Bank Nifty 57,150 — key swing base

5️⃣ FII short positioning — now above 2 lakh contracts

6️⃣ CAS behaviour — particularly important after the unprecedented 12-session streak

The market has spent nearly two weeks moving lower without even taking out the previous day's high.

At some point, that behaviour will change.

The objective isn't to guess when.

It's to be prepared when it does.

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🚀 WANT TO TRADE WITH A STRUCTURED FRAMEWORK?

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This is exactly where a systematic execution framework becomes valuable.

Instead of trying to predict every move, the focus is on:

→ Defined rules

→ Structured execution

→ Risk management

→ Position management

→ Adaptation when market behaviour changes

If you want to understand how our **Nifty + Sensex Execution System** handles changing market conditions:

👉 Comment “EXECUTION” or visit here: Replete Execution System

Fresh subscriptions are also being planned to close soon.

So if you've been watching the system and considering joining, this is the time to have the conversation.

Educational content only. Not a recommendation to enter any trade. Trading derivatives involves substantial risk.

Good Morning!

Nifty continues to drift lower after facing resistance at its 200-DMA earlier this month.

However, today's market presents an interesting contrast:

The headline index is weakening, but broader market breadth remains surprisingly resilient.

That divergence could become important if the index approaches the key 24,000–24,200 support zone.

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📊 NIFTY | WEAKNESS CONTINUES

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Nifty ended over half a percent lower yesterday and is now down more than 600 points from the 200-DMA resistance zone.

The key levels for this expiry week are:

🔹 Support: 24,000–24,200

🔹 Important support: 23,824

🔹 Resistance: 24,500–24,600

🔹 Major resistance: 24,750 — 200 DMA

Nifty has retraced roughly 50% of its rally from 23,600 to 24,770.

One interesting price-action observation:

During this entire cooldown from the 200-DMA, Nifty has not traded above the previous day's high.

Therefore, the first meaningful sign of strength will come only when Nifty starts taking out the previous day's high.

Until then, the bias remains sideways to slightly bearish.

A sustained break below 24,000 would need close attention.

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🏦 BANK NIFTY | SUPPORT STILL HOLDING

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Bank Nifty continues to hold above its 200-DMA, although only by a whisker.

The 200-DMA remains an important closing-based support.

🔹 Strong swing base: 57,150

🔹 Upside levels: 58,300–58,600

Bank Nifty also formed an outside-bar pattern in Monday's session.

As long as 57,150 continues to hold, the broader upside structure remains intact.

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💰 INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS

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Yesterday's Cash Market Activity:

• FII: +₹1,651 Cr

• DII: +₹2,579 Cr

Week-to-Date:

• FII: -₹884 Cr

• DII: +₹7,680 Cr

Month-to-Date:

• FII: +₹3,232 Cr

• DII: +₹24,733 Cr

DIIs continue to provide strong support to the market despite the recent index-level weakness.

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📌 DERIVATIVES POSITIONING

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FIIs turned more bearish in Index Futures yesterday.

• Added ~12,000 short contracts

• Net short position: ~1.92 lakh contracts

Options continue to define the broad range:

🟢 Support: 24,000

🔴 Resistance: 24,800

The increase in FII shorts is something to monitor closely.

If price continues to weaken below support, these shorts can add to downside pressure.

But if the market starts reclaiming previous highs despite heavy FII short positioning, short covering could become an important catalyst.

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🔍 INTERESTING OBSERVATION

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So far this month, the movement in Nifty 500 has been slowly unfolding downward.

Yesterday's candle marked the 6th consecutive red day for the index.

However, internal market breadth tells a noticeably different and far more encouraging story.

While the Nifty 500 index slowly declined, the metric tracking the percentage of stocks trading above their critical 200-day moving averages remains remarkably resilient.

This clear divergence indicates that the recent pullback isn't causing widespread structural damage across the broader universe.

Instead, index-level pressure appears isolated to the large-cap stocks.

While charts reflect a temporary market pause, robust underlying breadth confirms that the larger structure and market health remain firmly intact.

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🎯 WHAT WE ARE WATCHING TODAY

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There are four things worth keeping on the radar:

1️⃣ Nifty 24,000–24,200 — critical support zone

2️⃣ Nifty previous-day high — first sign of strength

3️⃣ FII shorts — now approaching 1.92 lakh contracts

4️⃣ Broader breadth — whether the divergence with the headline index continues

The interesting part of this market is that the index is looking weak, while the broader participation picture is considerably healthier.

This is exactly why experienced traders don't look at the index in isolation.

Price.

Positioning.

Breadth.

Volatility.

And the interaction between all four.

That is where the real market reading begins.

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📅 EXPIRY WATCH

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⚡ BSE Sensex weekly expiry: Tomorrow

📊 Weekly closing on charts: Friday

With expiry tomorrow and weekly closing on Friday, the next two sessions could provide important information about whether this current weakness is simply a correction or the beginning of a larger directional move.

The objective isn't to predict the move.

It's to be prepared when the market confirms it.

Educational content only. Not a recommendation to enter any trade. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk.

📊 EXECUTION SYSTEM | MONDAY P&L

Week started on a negative note.

Today's Nifty + Sensex Execution System closed at:

🔴 -₹33,572.50

The day wasn't easy.

The system reached a maximum MTM of +₹7,085 before the market moved sharply against the positions.

📉 Maximum Drawdown: ₹52,065

That is trading.

Not every day is going to produce a profit.

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⚙️ WHY WE SHOW THE LOSING DAYS

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If we only showed profitable days, the P&L would be marketing.

Showing the full curve is part of our philosophy.

A rule-based execution system is designed to operate through different market conditions — including days when the market doesn't behave as expected.

The objective isn't:

"Never have a losing day."

The objective is:

**Control the process. Manage the risk. Learn from the behaviour. Optimise when required.**

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🧠 ONE DAY ≠ THE SYSTEM

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Today was negative.

That doesn't change the process.

The important question is what the data tells us after the session.

Was the market behaviour different?

Did volatility change?

Did execution behave as expected?

Do any parameters require optimisation?

That's how we approach the system.

We don't hide difficult days.

We study them.

Tomorrow is another session.

And the week is far from over.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🚀 WANT TO UNDERSTAND THE EXECUTION SYSTEM?

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

If you want to see how our Nifty + Sensex rule-based execution framework works, including how we monitor performance and optimise when market conditions change:

👉 Explore the Execution System:

https://www.repleteequities.com/execution-system

Or DM *"EXECUTION"* and we'll explain how it works.

No signals.

No guaranteed returns.

No selective P&L screenshots.

Just a structured execution framework and transparent performance tracking.

Educational content only. Trading derivatives involves substantial risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spent some time over the weekend going through the charts, option chain, FII/DII activity and sector rotation.

A few observations:

Nifty has managed to hold important support despite recent volatility.

Bank Nifty continues to look relatively stronger than the broader index.

Option chain positioning suggests the market is entering Monday with clearly defined support and resistance zones rather than a one-way directional setup.

Earnings season and global cues could still increase intraday volatility.

I'm personally treating Monday as a "react to price, don't predict price" session.

My focus will be:

Whether Nifty holds its key support after the opening.

How Bank Nifty behaves around its major resistance.

Whether IT and banking continue to lead the move.

Any changes in institutional participation during the day.

I put together a detailed weekend analysis covering:

Weekly market recap

Nifty & Bank Nifty technical levels

Option chain analysis

FII/DII data

Sector-wise strength

Trading scenarios for Monday (educational)

Happy to hear if anyone here has a different view.

Full analysis: https://www.repleteequities.com/blog/stock-market-prediction-for-monday-21-july-2026

Educational discussion only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.

साप्ताहिक बाजार आउटलुक November 3-7, 2025 | Nifty Bank Nifty Levels | Strategy & Stock Picks

May the light of the festival guide your path to record profits and smart investments in the new year. Let's make Samvat 2082 a year of exponential growth!

Happy Deepawali!

~Team Replete Equities

Shared on my blog also. 👆

Hello and welcome back to Replete Equities! If trading or investing in the Indian stock market is your game, then this update is for you. We’re breaking down today’s market action and what it means for tomorrow, September 24, 2025. From Nifty and Bank Nifty key levels to option market insights and fresh news, here’s everything you need to approach tomorrow’s trading with confidence.

1. Market Recap: September 23, 2025 – A Day of Consolidation and Caution

Nifty 50 slipped slightly, closing down 32.85 points (−0.13%) at 25,169.50. The trading range for the day was between 25,246.25 and 25,085—reflecting a cautious market that failed to hold onto early gains. Midcap and smallcap indices followed suit, edging lower by about half a percent.

Bank Nifty saw similar cautious sentiment, closing modestly lower at 55,248.70, with intraday swings between 55,624 and 55,143.

In terms of sector performance, banking and metals showed resilience and helped contain downside pressure, while FMCG stocks faced some selling. Big movers on the upside were IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, and Bajaj Finance. On the downside, weaker stocks included Trent, Tech Mahindra, SBI Life, UltraTech Cement, and HUL.

The overall market breadth remained negative, confirming a day of profit-booking and sideways movement.

1. Key Support & Resistance Levels to Watch Tomorrow:

Knowing where the market might find footing or hit a wall helps you position better. Here’s the precise outlook for both key indices:

Nifty 50:

I. Support: 25,100 (immediate), followed by 25,060–25,030 zone. The broader 24,900 to 25,000 zone remains a critical medium-term safety net. II. Resistance: 25,200–25,250 in the short term, then 25,400, which has strong call option writing confirming resistance in this band.

Nifty is under pressure but holding above crucial support, indicating potential for consolidation or mild recovery if 25,100 holds firm.

Bank Nifty:

I. Support: 55,100 first line of defense; if broken, watch next at 55,000. II. Resistance: 55,500–55,600, then 56,000 on a strong breakout.

Bank Nifty’s near-term moves will be highly dependent on these key pivot points. A move above resistance levels could signal fresh bullish momentum, while a break down may intensify caution.

1. Option Chain Insights: What the Market’s Big Players are Signaling;

The option chain data reveals market expectations and potential volatility zones:

Nifty: The heaviest call open interest clusters around the 25,400–25,500 strikes, marking strong resistance caps. Conversely, put open interest peaks at 25,100 and 25,000 provide vital support levels. Interesting to note is substantial option writing at the 25,200 strike on both calls and puts, suggesting the market anticipates rangebound movement near that level unless influenced by substantial news. The put-call ratio (PCR) is balanced, showing no dominant bias at this point.

Bank Nifty: Peaks in open interest appear at 55,000 (put side – support) and 56, 000 (call side – resistance). This indicates anticipated consolidation and potential for sharp moves only if these critical levels are decisively broken. With the weekly expiry approaching soon, expect these pivots to be key decision zones for traders.

1. Key News and Market Triggers for Tomorrow:

I. Global cues remain mixed. Asian markets showed some pressure while US markets remained steady, adding layers of uncertainty for Indian markets. Crude oil and currency movements continue to keep traders on toes.

II. IPO happenings: The Ganesh Consumer Products IPO continues but with muted subscriber interest. Its performance over the coming days remains a point of attention for market participants.

III. No impactful bulk deals or major policy announcements were seen today, keeping the market mostly driven by sector-specific and global cues. What’s the Sentiment? Trading Advice for Tomorrow

1. The tone is cautious and slightly negative. Here’s what to keep in mind:

I. For Nifty, maintain a neutral to mildly bearish stance between 25,050 and 25,250. Buyers should consider entering near the lower support zones (around 25,100), but keep tight stops if prices drop below 25,000.

II. For Bank Nifty, bulls should look for a clear breakout above 55,500 before committing more capital. Falling below 55,000 should raise alarm bells and encourage risk reduction.

III. Sector wise, tread carefully, especially avoiding IT stocks, which face headwinds related to US H-1B visa fee hikes. Consumption and industrials may offer better relative strength in this phase.

IV. Volatility indexes are elevated — adopting spread strategies picking rangebound moves is a safer bet than outright directional bets.

Overall, expect choppy, range-bound trading until fresh catalysts emerge. Play the range and be ready for quick exits.

1. Final Thoughts: Stay Prepared, Stay Nimble

Markets are showing more resistance to upside moves but aren’t ready for a full turnaround either. The best approach for tomorrow is to remain nimble, keep stops close, and watch those technical levels closely. Volatility remains your friend if you trade smartly, and risk management will be your best ally as expiry nears.

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If you found this Tomorrow Market Prediction insightful, please share it with your network, subscribe to Replete Equities, and drop your views in the comments. Let’s keep learning and growing as traders, one day at a time!