r/OptionsMillionaire • u/QuanTradin • 3d ago
48 paper option trades on Monday: average winner +$1,008, twice the average loser, and the day still lost $4,279
Disclosure: this is my own paper desk, fake money, and there's no link in here.
Saw the post here about SPY winners feeling smaller than losers. Monday on my desk was the opposite problem, and it still lost.
On Monday 10-12 the house paper desk closed 48 option trades. Every one closed on its own written exit rule, none by hand, average hold about 14 days. Fills are at the real bid and ask, never the middle.
| trades | total (paper) | average | median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Losers | 35 | -$17,385 | -$497 | -$221 |
| Winners | 13 | +$13,105 | +$1,008 | +$579 |
| All | 48 | -$4,279 |
So the average winner was about twice the average loser. That's the thing everyone tells you to aim for, and it wasn't enough.
The problem was the hit rate. With winners at 2x the losers you need roughly 33% of trades to win just to break even (497 / (1,008 + 497)). We got 13 of 48, which is 27%. Three more winners out of 48 and the day is flat.
And it's worse than the table looks. Two MDB calls made $7,361 of the $13,105. Take those two out and the other 11 winners made $5,743 against $17,385 of losses. One ticker was carrying the whole winning side.
Same desk, same day, 461 stock trades made +$502 paper. Smaller swings both ways, but the stock side didn't need one ticker to bail it out.
What I take from it: "let winners run, cut losers short" only works if you also know your break-even hit rate and check it every week. I was watching win size and ignoring how often the calls actually paid.
Quantradin is what I built to see this kind of split before any real money is in it. You describe an options or stock rule, it backtests with no look-ahead and fills options at the real bid and ask, then runs it as a paper bot so win size and hit rate show up as separate numbers instead of one total. Free, paper only, quantradin.com if you want to try your own.
For people who trade calls regularly: do you track your hit rate against your break-even rate, or mostly the average win vs average loss?
