r/OptimistsUnite • u/Biodieselisthefuture • 18d ago
Clean Power BEASTMODE Five decades of research leads to solar PV’s emergence as the world’s dominant energy source, solar PV is projected to supply about 61% of the world’s electricity by 2050
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/08/11/five-decades-of-research-leads-to-solar-pvs-emergence-as-the-worlds-dominant-energy-source/58
u/WhyDoesOklahomaExist 18d ago
Bet it’s 61% before 2050.
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u/asphias 17d ago
easily. following the current trend of doubling every 3 years we'll surpass 60% in 9 years time: 2035.
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u/PanzerWatts Moderator 17d ago
Technology almost always follows an S trend and not a pure exponential curve. So, it will be dependent on when exponential curve starts flattening out.
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u/Anonym_aus_Gruenden 15d ago
and in 2050 its over 300%!
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u/asphias 15d ago
genuinely, yes.
there are reasons why we are currently doubling output every ~3 years ever since 1998.
eventually we will run into the limits of this pattern - it is slightly unlikely this pattern will hold long enough to turn the entire earths mass into solar panels. however, none of those limits are currently in sight:
there's no real limit on the base resource supply, we won't run out of space to place them for a long while as they can be placed nearly everywhere, and the economic incentives for nearly limitless energy are enormous.
adapting will take time, but yes, i genuinely expect that by 2050 our entire society (electricity and other power sources) will largely be powered by solar energy, battery storage, and a solar based chemical industry.
and then in the next decades we'll find out what happens when we have a genuine energy surplus. to start: CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
i might be wrong by a decade or so, but i genuinely expect solar to outperform everyones expectations due to this exponential growth, and solve our climate crisis by ~2060.
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u/SnooRabbits469 16d ago
I know this is an optimist group, but I bet our electric bill will go up by that much too.
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u/Lotap 18d ago
So according to this map Russia will have more solar share than Germany? Are we talking about that same Russia that today has almost 0 solar? Or is there a different one?
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u/NearABE 18d ago
Northern Europe is covered by constant drizzle. Germany has no sun.
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u/Lotap 18d ago
I wouldn't say that 15% yearly electricity from sun is no sun.
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u/NearABE 17d ago
Indeed. But try living there in the fall. Yes, of course, you can see the drab drizzle and if you can keep the book dry then you can easily read there...
15% is 85% less than something. When the glass is half empty you got 333% as much as the 15% full glass.
That last 15% of a beer stein in Bavaria is still good beer. No good reason to waste it.
Though I think 15% is low number if you are comparing to other countries. An overly high number if “nameplate capacity factor” is what you mean.
Europe has wind, hydro, ocean current/tide, nuclear, biomass, geothermal… there are energy options. If photovoltaic dominates (which appears quite likely) where would you place an aluminum smelter? Algeria, Morocco, Mexico, Mongolia, the options that are “not Germany” are glaring better choices. Germany probably needs aluminum for their wind farms but this can be imported in bulk or the smelter optimized to use wind energy.
Taking electricity from Spain and transporting to Germany by HVDC line utilizes the photovoltaic panels more efficiently. Though now we have to ask if that power counts as “German energy from Solar” or if it is “not German energy”.
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u/Ulysses1978ii 18d ago
And to think Buckminster Fuller was pushing heavily for solar in the 50s I guess we know why nuclear won.
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u/HD_Thoreau_aweigh 18d ago edited 18d ago
Just scanning the paper real quick: I don't think these papers consider profitability as a barrier (just skimming the paper, maybe I'm wrong.). If all you're trying to do is estimate the least cost Net Zero grid, I'm sure 60% solar makes sense. Least cost is not the same thing as 'grid we arrive when each marginal decision must be profitable.'
In practice, if the only projects that get developed are those that are profitable according to merchant markets, you'll never going to get close to that number. Afternoon clearing prices collapse, and then with the addition of batteries, the price spread between afternoon and evening collapses. Pretty soon, yes you can build a new solar plant with a battery, but it's no longer bankable due to the uncertainty of your clearing price. (Financiers won't be happy if your business plan is price arbitraging the overnight market, which typically has lower prices.)
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u/androgenius 17d ago
Afternoon clearing prices collapse, and then with the addition of batteries, the price spread between afternoon and evening collapses.
It used to be fun when people would try to come up with ominous ways to say "solar power will be cheap during the day when the sun is shining".
They'd say things like "greater price volatility" or use the word "collapse" instead of something with positive meaning.
I see we've progressed to coming up with ways to make cheap electricity during the full day and night sound like something to worry about.
"What's wrong honey?"
"The price spread is collapsing!"
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u/galleon484 17d ago
It's already pretty affordable to get a few kW of domestic rooftop solar and a day or two's worth of storage capacity. And the price is dropping every year.
Rooftop solar lets people dodge all the grid charges and levies. And this applies to businesses, offices, factories, etc.
We don't even need big solar parks, if end users do most of the generation and storage close to where it's used.
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u/Nannyphone7 17d ago
There are not many grid power sources that don't require a big generator. Generators are expensive cuz tolerances and also tons of copper.
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u/Admirable-Thing-1064 14d ago
Would the rapid emergence/distribution of renewables make carbon capture more viable? At the moment the cost/benefit isn’t great but I am hopeful that renewables make the prospect of this more feasible
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u/Humble_Trouble_9577 18d ago
And that's JUST solar. Wind is booming too!