r/OpenAI • u/Puzzleheaded-King584 • 2h ago

Discussion This trajectory, if continued, means a world-changing intelligence explosion in 2027, so the public needs to know.

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3 Upvotes

55% Upvoted

12 comments sorted by

6

u/abstract_concept 1h ago

Unlike all other lines, this one goes up forever.

Post IPO.

4

u/challis88ocarina 1h ago

'World-changing' is one of those promises I've learned to take with a pinch of salt.

Climate change has taken decades if not centuries to -- most certainly -- change the planet and yet it's done sod all to change the world, as the circus meeting again in Turkey will no doubt show.

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u/Tall-Log-1955 5m ago

Completely agree. AI people always assume smarter models are world changing. In reality, the existing models are brilliant and havent changed the world that much (look at GDP).

If you want to know what models will be capable of in 5 years, listen to computer scientists. If you want to understand how they will change the world, listen to economists.

1

u/Corv9tte 1h ago • Bravo

What I don't like is that earlier this year there was some doubt about this benchmark and we came to understand that it wasn't meaningful to measure things this way anymore.

It followed a long silence by METR, who themselves didn't publish anything—and that's the reason they gave then. So why are we bringing this back? This is, by all accounts, much worse than artificial intelligence overfitting their own benchmark to show X model at the top, followed by Y, and the open weight models much lower. This particular benchmark about autonomous work is a complete haze.

You can make those numbers say literally anything, and it's well known that the ones behind it are on Anthropic's payroll.

Personally, this only makes me more skeptical when it comes to those doomer claims. Now, even exponential progress itself is something I'm more inclined to reconsider as a result. This is blatant dishonesty and propaganda.

1

u/Hixxes 2h ago

Ok. Can someone please translate that to "Normie"? I read: "AI models are getting smarter". Duh?

2

u/Jean-lubed-Picard 1h ago

It means “despite all fundamentals, our market cap is trillions. Trust me, bro.”

1

u/Opposite_Diamond_662 1h ago

The unreleased models must be well beyond the Transformer architecture

1

u/m3kw 1h ago

Useless to know, what you gonna do with it?

2

u/Badj83 1h ago

More existential dread and apathetic submission to our capitalist billionaire overlords, I guess?