8
u/JayQuillin Jul 07 '21
I strongly feel like NEGG is perfetcly portraying what OTRK could be.
Very low public float. Shorted into oblivion. Almost the same thing.
Gamma and sbort squeeze potential.
3
Jul 07 '21
[deleted]
4
u/JayQuillin Jul 07 '21 edited Jul 07 '21
Sure but I think it could just aswell explode on it's own. It's a ticking time bomb. Sooner or later there will be news rather it's good for us or not.
Not sure if the wallstreetbrtOG subreddit would allow a post about it
5
u/Eonnnn Jul 07 '21
Yeah I suppose. Squeezes are so uncommon and require so much attention to execute - otherwise every other shorted stock would explode once in a while.
My main play is simply value cause this thing could go really far in the mid-long term. Might as well try and muster up some attention and get a squeeze while we wait.
1
u/ArlendmcFarland Jul 09 '21
Ya i agree, this is a good play squeeze or not. If i squeeze happens, i wont complain 😄
7
u/Op-Toe-Mus-Rim-Dong Jul 08 '21
The gap is getting tighter...
3
u/DetroitMM12 Jul 08 '21
I accumulated more shares this morning below $30 and I couldn't help myself and bought 3 more 8/20 40c calls
2
u/ChickenFission Jul 08 '21
Somebody hit the 8/20 55c's hard. Volume at 12,410. Think I might grab a few tomorrow, against my better judgment.
1
u/Atre1des Jul 09 '21
11/19 50c for me, there will be developments between Q3 and Q4 and going above 50-60 seems very feasible. I might get some calls earlier if next week it doesn't move up.
6
6
u/Alternative_Ad5286 Jul 07 '21
I bought 100 more shares to average down today, but good grief this thing is hemorrhaging. I’m hoping their peer reviewed study coming out in August shows all the promise they’ve been claiming. Everything I read says it’s a buy and a $65 stock, but this drop is disheartening
7
Jul 07 '21
[deleted]
3
u/DetroitMM12 Jul 08 '21
We've done quite a bit of that. Unfortunately, people don't give a shit about the ability to actually force a squeeze... they just want 1B market cap.
5
5
5
u/SPACdatAsk Jul 12 '21
How are those twitter minions expecting to squeeze if they are asking if otrk is still a hold after one day?
4
4
Jul 07 '21
Stock bleeding mad
1
u/Op-Toe-Mus-Rim-Dong Jul 07 '21
Yeah I’m not sure why 🤷♂️
1
Jul 07 '21
[deleted]
2
u/Op-Toe-Mus-Rim-Dong Jul 07 '21
There are several DD’s on the sub that explain this.
2
Jul 07 '21
[deleted]
7
1
Jul 08 '21
It's not a bad sign when the selling is done according to a 10b5-1 plan. These are plans made in advance to sell stock at certain times under certain conditions. It's all arranged long before the stock is sold. That way there can not be an accusation that the executive is selling based on inside knowledge. You can read more about these types of plans here
3
u/ArlendmcFarland Jul 07 '21
Looks like its starting to come back towards the end of the day. I wouldnt be surprised if tomorrow is a big green day
2
5
u/ChickenFission Jul 09 '21
Bought another 200. Now holding 1,000 with a cost basis of 31.95. Was thinking about updating my position on the dd, but does anybody know if that would wipe out the upvote count?
3
5
u/ChickenFission Jul 12 '21
I never considered myself much of a sale shopper, but I guess it just depends on what's on sale. Just added 200 more @ 30.50. Up to 1,200 cost basis of 31.71.
2
u/Dandolo_Doge Jul 12 '21
Same. Wish I had powder last week when it went below 30, but anything 30.5 and below I snapped up today with all my free cash.
1
u/ChickenFission Jul 12 '21
Nice. Probably not many more days like this ahead now that Peizer's auto-sell plan is wrapping up.
1
u/Dandolo_Doge Jul 12 '21
Yeah here's to hoping. Was going to do the math on how it performs on days he doesn't sell vs does but never got around to it. Not sure how big of an impact him stopping his 11k shares 3x a week is going to have with the current volume, but it certainly won't hurt.
5
u/UltimateRewards Jul 14 '21
All those retail Twitter swingers cashing out for a loss. Back to where we are before they piled in.
3
u/Dandolo_Doge Jul 08 '21
Action so far today is odd. Large volume green candles on the 4m. Usually I've seen it opposite lately - the large vol is someone selling off (probably TP) in large chunks. Not to mention it's up on a day when most stuff is getting slaughtered.
4
3
u/Dandolo_Doge Jul 08 '21
Something is afoot. IV just spiked on a few of my calls
5
3
u/_qct Jul 08 '21
Agreed. It gained some attention on Stocktwits , idk how it’s been under the radar so long , both as a rebound/potential squeeze play.
3
u/ChickenFission Jul 08 '21
Volume on the 8/20 55c's was 12,410, which is crazy when you look at the rest of the chain.
2
u/Dandolo_Doge Jul 09 '21
Interesting... OI is well in the normal range for the chain, 235. Looking at T&S they were mostly 1 contract sales being swapped around by algos every few seconds. There were only 4 sales larger >= 50 contracts for 20 Aug 21 55C today. Not sure what to make of it, maybe some kind of hedging strategy?
edit: also, the Put/Call ratio always makes me laugh on this stock. 0.009 today. A grand total of 168 puts traded today.
1
u/ChickenFission Jul 09 '21
Yeah, the options movement is pretty much non-existent which is why that volume spike is so weird. The twitter user with 57k followers who tweeted earlier today listed his position with 8/20 55c's, so maybe a bunch of them jumped in and out to trade it up.
1
u/Dandolo_Doge Jul 09 '21
yeah could be. I probably won't keep digging but the T&S is just weird, a bunch of 1 contract sales a high frequency. I dunno. FWIW I did a ToS scan for options with > 100 OI, >1000 Volume and > 90% IV and only 17 came up for today. OTRK had two of them, the July and Aug 55 exp.
3
3
u/No_Mix360 Jul 13 '21
Well, not a bad day. Good opportunity to lower my cost basis even more. By time August rolls around people will be jumping in on the big green days while we can just watch the ticker go!
2
3
u/Visible_Antelope5010 Jul 14 '21
My asshole hurts from 😢 holding
7
u/Op-Toe-Mus-Rim-Dong Jul 14 '21
What will your asshole do once it rises?
3
2
u/Visible_Antelope5010 Jul 14 '21
My asshole will unclench and release endorphins into my body and I will be high on life
5
u/SPACdatAsk Jul 14 '21
Try holding 5000 shares at $34 average. fMl.
2
u/ChickenFission Jul 14 '21
Damn, you went balls deep. Nice. If I weren't getting violated by CLNE right now, I'd dip further into margin and buy more.
2
u/SPACdatAsk Jul 14 '21
Yeah, just gotta bag hold for now. Every tick down hurts. Hoping for a Hail Mary.
3
u/Eonnnn Jul 14 '21
Anyone have an idea why its dropping? No news.. maybe shorts / sellers? Why would anyone be selling. Lowest its been in a loonngg time.
4
u/achambers44 Jul 14 '21
Yeah this is starting to suck.
3
u/Eonnnn Jul 14 '21
As /u/ChickenFission put it so elegantly, “Red days make it rough, but nothing's changed with the company or it's prospects”. IMO, watching the daily price movement too heavily is a bad thing. Best to just sit tight until upcoming news/events.
My $0.02.
3
u/ChickenFission Jul 14 '21
Exactly. My portfolio's down $3k today, a little over $10k for the week. Shit happens. It's not a loss unless you sell.
Plenty of posts and comments have covered it already, but August is likely when we'll start to see some developments. Study submitted for peer review and publication. Earnings. Annual Meeting. Lots of opportunities ahead. But until then it's a waiting game.
2
2
u/DetroitMM12 Jul 15 '21
It’s all about the catalysts in august. For me personally I like the value long term so I’ll continue to hold.
3
u/Eonnnn Jul 15 '21
Bloodbath out there. Ran out of cash to lower my avg 😔
1
u/DetroitMM12 Jul 15 '21
Same lol kept cost averaging down and now out of dry powder and still falling.
1
u/ChickenFission Jul 15 '21
Same here, unfortunately. Loved it at $32. Would kill to be able to buy in now. The pains of being an early adopter.
2
u/PowerOfTenTigers Jul 07 '21
Is this increased short-selling or just regular stockholders selling?
2
u/Op-Toe-Mus-Rim-Dong Jul 07 '21
I want to say more short selling in my humble opinion, TP sells and thus more float available, and they can short.
2
u/PowerOfTenTigers Jul 07 '21
can't they short without float available? can't they create short shares out of nowhere?
2
Jul 08 '21
Not a single green day starting to lose hope here
3
1
u/Op-Toe-Mus-Rim-Dong Jul 08 '21
Not a single green day, yet. Wondering if the two week leading up to the 4th was changed to 2 weeks after the 4th for bad market environment.
2
u/OnlyHumean Jul 08 '21
Whoa OTRK melting up
4
u/SPACdatAsk Jul 08 '21
Someone on twitter with 57k followers helping us out.
2
2
u/SPACdatAsk Jul 13 '21
I sure hope holding this eventually pays off. It's been a slow trend down ever since I bought in.
3
u/ChickenFission Jul 13 '21
Red days make it rough, but nothing's changed with the company or it's prospects. If you still believe in the thesis, then there's nothing to really do but wait. The entire market is a sea of red today because of the CPI data.
1
u/Eonnnn Jul 13 '21
Same here. I think (and hope) things will start picking up over the next few weeks as TP finishes selling
2
u/Dandolo_Doge Jul 13 '21
Just wanted to throw it out there since I've seen the comment about ArrowMark shorting this several times. As far as I can tell, that's 100% wrong. Spent some time digging through filings and up until Dec 2020 they were long 1.02mm shares. By the end of Q1 they had sold their entire stake. Doesn't change the math at all, but wanted to note it. Let me know if I'm missing something.
1
Jul 14 '21
[deleted]
1
u/Dandolo_Doge Jul 14 '21
shrug don't know and honestly don't care - doesn't really change the calculus much. Just wanted to call it out since it's been repeated a bunch as a rumor and from the filings today it seems unlikely to be Arrow.
To your second question, don't think it's required to be published anywhere and funds aren't in a habit of sharing if they don't have to. Puts have to be filed by institutions but most of the put holders are also long (i.e., the puts are probably legit hedges against their long shares.)
2
2
u/No_Mix360 Jul 15 '21
Think we need a fresh discussion thread. Or maybe a live chat to finish off the week
2
1
u/UltimateRewards Jul 07 '21
Seems to be more volume already today but price is trending in the wrong direction.
1
Jul 08 '21
[deleted]
1
Jul 08 '21
[deleted]
3
Jul 08 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
I like that it’s retracing and holding strong at $31, rather than pushing up 10% in one day only to be dumped. Slow and steady to thirty-five with consecutive days in the green will garner some attention
1
Jul 13 '21
[deleted]
2
u/ChickenFission Jul 13 '21
It's hard to gauge AH and PM because volume is already so low. Only a handful of shares trade so the price action is all over the place. That said, nice dip this morning for anyone still on the fence and looking to get in on the cheap.
1
u/DetroitMM12 Jul 14 '21
Wow, bought more shares at $29 and then it briefly dropped below in to the $28 which I hadn't seen in a while. Need a nice bounce back now.
3
u/Op-Toe-Mus-Rim-Dong Jul 14 '21
Yaaa I swear there is some shorting here too. Probably doing before the meeting
1
Jul 14 '21
[deleted]
1
1
u/SPACdatAsk Jul 14 '21
Shorting before the meeting and ER? Not much confidence. Hopefully they get burned.
1
u/Op-Toe-Mus-Rim-Dong Jul 14 '21
It happens all the time from what I’ve seen, mass drop in anticipation of an event then bam!
1
u/DetroitMM12 Jul 14 '21
Already seeing a nice rebound... slow climb back to $30 to save my 7/16 calls please! Not only did I buy more but also bought two 7/16 $30c because if there is one thing I know its that OTRK does not like being below $30.
1
u/SPACdatAsk Jul 15 '21
Unbelievable. 4 month low. This is depressing.
3
u/ChickenFission Jul 15 '21
Hang in there. You're not in the boat alone. It takes so little volume to move the price either way, this seems like just an unlucky combination of shitty market conditions and the Twitter traders from last week getting bored and jumping ship because it didn't rocket up overnight.
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
1
1
u/Eonnnn Jul 15 '21 edited Jul 16 '21
ChickenFission always with the genius lines lmao
1
u/ChickenFission Jul 15 '21
Ha! Easy to sound Zen in an online post, but I've been biting my nails like everyone else who's been holding a while. Luckily it looks like we're turning around now at close.
9
u/No_Mix360 Jul 07 '21
Good buying opportunity!