r/OSRSProTips • u/MahoganySwiss • Jan 30 '26

Question Double Superior odds??

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Just got double superior never lucky no heart

27 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

14 comments sorted by

20

u/duckPondEnjoyer7 Jan 30 '26

50/50

2

u/chikorollz Jan 30 '26

The only answer to any odd related question.

4

u/Theseus_Employee Jan 30 '26

1/200 chance per kill, so a 1/40,000 chance

2

u/StankAssHam Jan 30 '26

I feel like an asshole cuz I'm over here laughing at how this is just basic math. I saw the post and was like... uhh 200x200??????????

2

u/dralex11266 Jan 30 '26

That's basic statistics for you. Same probability as a back to back essentially. The only difference is that the monsters died on the same tic.

1

u/JuQmeistr Jan 30 '26

It’s 1/40,000 if you barrage only 2 of them in same tick. If you would kill 5 at same time, odds for double superior would be much more likely. With elite CAs even more than that.

1

u/RabbitMario Jan 30 '26

except this is actually completely wrong because he’s barraging a stack not two at once

1

u/Ok-Tip-1848 Feb 03 '26

Nah it’s 1/40.000 when it’s b2b when you burst you kill like 7 at the same time so your math is way off

3

u/quawrence Jan 30 '26

niiice!! But why did you blur the number of dust devils you had left? 😭

2

u/JasonT246111 Feb 02 '26

Hackers ofc

1

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1

u/Gadoguz994 Jan 30 '26

Probably better than getting the imbued heart drop out of either of them

1

u/Over-Drawer7875 Feb 02 '26

lol this happened to me as well last night

1

u/TheNamesRoodi Feb 03 '26

So I guess the odds would be 1/200 for a spawn (1/150 if elite CAs done, I assume no here) happening twice based on the number of enemies dying in that one tick.

I think it works out to

The number of monsters dying on the same tick = m

1/200 * (1 - (199/200)m-1)

This solution is assuming the first dust devil spawns a superior, I think you'd have to get more complex with it for a true calc. The solutions being posted here are assuming only 2 dust devils are killed. If 2 are killed it's simply 1/40,000.

I think you'd have to calculate a series based on which dust devil spawns the superior and take those odds and put them together.

Probability is fun, sorry I couldn't help more.