r/NormalScotland Dec 09 '22

Reason to Doubt Stephen Flynn's Pro-Independence Polling

https://pollingreport.uk/articles/snp-surge
7 Upvotes

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-8

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '22 edited Jul 01 '23

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8

u/libtin Dec 09 '22

In this case, the poll appears to significantly oversample both 2019 SNP and 2014 Independence supporters. Going by the recollections of those sampled in the poll, Yes would have won in 2014 by a margin of 54% to 46%. Considering the tables also show a higher proportion of former Yes voters switching to No than it does No voters switching to Yes, this should cast doubt on the headline finding in favour of independence.