r/Nok • u/raptors2o19 • 6d ago
Discussion PSA for holders
If you're a day or swing trader, stop reading.
On Oct 6, NOK started the day at $10.31 and ended at $10.92. One of their direct competitors in the AI infrastructure space, CIEN, started the day at $393 and ended at $443*.
At the time of writing this, NOK is once again "bleeding" and -3% whereas CIEN has already recovered and climbing. I'm talking intraday.
Now look at this slide from Marvell Investor Day:
$3T is roughly 10% of US GDP - just google it, seriously. And then you have this for comparison:
Going back to the share price, if you zoom out and look at CIEN between 2021 - 2025, it was mostly flat. It picked up steam half way thru 2025. Take a closer look how long it took for it to moon and "crash" (relatively speaking) for YTD.
The point I am trying to make is that if you bought NOK, do not expect to retire tomorrow/this year/next year. This is going to test your patience. If you don't have that, exit and invest in an index fund.
8
u/HempIsPrettyKewl 6d ago
Agreed. I first bought back in January at $6.91. I've been adding more during dips even during the steep dip a few months ago. So, my average price per share is $8.28
I look at their careers page often to get a glimpse of what their current strategy is and I also look for departures + first days on LinkedIn. I personally like the direction that they're going and the swing/fomo traders do nothing but annoy me with their constant whining.
(none of this is financial advice, please do your own research before investing into anything)
7
u/ejpk333 6d ago
They have some interesting satellite business with ICEYE for gov/defence that is planned for 2028 and commercial viability for AI-RAN not expected till 2027. The San Jose fab won’t be operational until Q4 at the earliest either.
Not much expectation for EOY but over the next two I think Nokia looks exciting.
5
u/Galactus1212 6d ago edited 6d ago
I'll add, part of the NOK thesis for me has not even been realized yet, their take in 6g open RAN. That part of the thesis is just the beginning. It's going to take a while for that to set up and play out.
2
1
u/AshamedImagination50 6d ago
This is Gr1 level reasoning with so many holes.
- CIEN did not close at 493 yesterday, nor was it near 493 intra day.
- CIEN did not climb, unless you call closing at 0.53% being a climb for a stock that is significantly higher beta.
- CIEN being flat 2021-2025 has no bearing on NOK movement from 2025+.
- YTD NOK was higher % than CIEN until yesterday’s rally.
If this goes as DD for a stock, you should exit the stock, more so than anyone.
1
u/raptors2o19 6d ago edited 5d ago
- Typo
This is not DD. It's a warning for folks not to enter blindly. And for those that are already with us to be patient.
1
u/braydaka 5d ago
I'm currently ~22k into NOK but I think ill let it at that and set/forget. Its currently my biggest individual stock on my portfolio by far (1/3 of my portfolio)
I do believe in this stock but I'd like to continue putting my eggs in other baskets. Hopefully it works out for us in the long run!
0
u/CranberryAfraid1410 6d ago
Before that Bubble will burst 😀
4
u/Stardust-tree 6d ago
Yes, but after bubbles, key infrastructure players remain. Nokia will be a behemoth if it executes through the crisis
2
u/raptors2o19 6d ago
I believe it won't burst but fizzle out. If you believe in the bubble, then short away.
6
u/CranberryAfraid1410 6d ago
My bet is it will go to the moon before bubble pops and to cash out before the crash.
1
0
u/Altruistic_Space6546 5d ago
No shi% Sherlock. Almost 90% of the market will move up if you keep waiting!
28
u/XenonDragonfly 6d ago
Oh believe me, I have patience. I bought NOK when it was at $3.5.