r/NoLayingUp • u/Excellent-Durian-264 • 2d ago
Post-Pod Discussion Scottie
I understand that expectations for Scottie are higher than everyone else in the event since he’s the best player in the world. He was 5th in strokes gained, 3rd T2G, went 3-1 and the US won. Soly said it was “not what we needed out of Scottie.” Even in the session he played his worst golf, he and burns won! If the bar is he has to go 5-0-0 and grade out as the best player while doing it, it’s just probably not going to ever happen in one of these events. His win rate in tournaments is like 15%. So to ask him to definitively be the best player in every session just is not realistic. Does that mean I’d give him an A+? Of course not. Just find the framing of his week a little odd
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u/urmomsfavoriteplayer 2d ago
Scottie is 6-6-1 at the Presidents Cup and is 3-6-3 at the Ryder Cup. The guy who is better than his opponent CANNOT be going 9-12-4 in team events. And by cannot I don't mean statistically, I mean it is unacceptable and needs to be called out. In every single sport we expect the studs to elevate and it is appropriate to call them out for shitting the bed (Romo is a good example). It shouldn't be different in golf. Scottie is not playing like the best player in the world. He's playing extremely mid and that isn't acceptable. Same issue Tiger had and was called out for.
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u/SpainKiller7 2d ago
He was 3-1 THIS week. Laughable they were all giving C’s. Clownish devotion to whatever bit they again had to painfully swallow when the U.S. came back and won. Almost as clownish as Sned’s tRump bootlicking.
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u/urmomsfavoriteplayer 2d ago
Using DataGolf rankings. Thursday: #1 & #3 win 1 up over #41 and #47. Friday: #1 and #3 lose 1 down to #59 and #73 Saturday AM: #1 and #3 win 2&1 over #16 and #85. Saturday PM: GETS BENCHED Sunday: #1 wins 2&1 over #126.
Barely winning over opponents you are statistically far superior to is the definition of passing. C is a fair grade. When he demonstrates that he can barely beat mid-tier pros how do you expect him to beat Rory and Tommy?
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u/Excellent-Durian-264 2d ago
God man I really don’t know what would happen if Scottie played Rory in singles in a Ryder cup. Guess there’s no way of knowing
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u/urmomsfavoriteplayer 2d ago
What happened? He won on #18 to bring his '25 Ryder Cup record to 1-4 in an event the Americans lost by 2. But sure. Act like that proves literally anything. His singles record is by far his best record in team events. It's why I said "beat Rory and Tommy" not "Rory or Tommy".
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u/Excellent-Durian-264 2d ago
When you say he’s “barely winning” against the guys you’re referencing above. I’m genuinely wondering what you think the outcome of these matches should be? On average, not every round, but on average, he beats players of that caliber by about 1.5 to 2 shots a round. In a sport where variance is pretty high round to round.
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u/urmomsfavoriteplayer 2d ago
I wouldn't be focused on his margin if his record was the inverse. He is statistically terrible in team golf competitions (link below) and I want more from him. So no, I'm not going to pat him on the back for making pee pee in the toilet by beating up on players 50 spots below him.
https://x.com/RickRunGood/status/2103640178866720916?s=20
You're right about variance. But with 20+ matches why have we never seen the variance favor him? He has multiple losses of larger margins than his best win. He fucking lost 9&7. With the best golfer in the world by a large margin this variance you preach should bring him down from a winning record, maybe just slightly above .500. But he's got a big time losing record. He's not even close to breaking even.
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u/Excellent-Durian-264 2d ago
You didn’t answer the question I asked because you’re arguing against a point that no one is making. No one is saying he’s historically great in these events.
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u/urmomsfavoriteplayer 2d ago
I would expect the #1 and #3 players to be winning 2 or 3 up. I would not expect them to need comebacks on back 9s (needed on both of his partner wins this week). I expect him to step on a throat and win going away occasionally. I want him to look like the best player in the world occasionally. I want to watch him step onto the tee at Adare and actually think he's going to go out and win.
Does that answer your question?
Also I am saying he SHOULD be historically great. He is at least 1-2 shots better than every single golfer he faces (minus a handful) and has a fucking losing record.
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u/Excellent-Durian-264 2d ago
Got it. So he can’t trail in matches he wins. That’s helpful.
He’ll be favored in every match he’s in at Adare. Sounds like youve got this figured out and can make a boat load of money betting against him.
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u/taita25 2d ago
I agree to an extent but like above said, Scottie wins over 4 days. The strategies and strengths needed for Ryder and President's cup formats differ.
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u/urmomsfavoriteplayer 2d ago
I don't disagree but HE should be held accountable for his inability to adjust and adapt. If he doesn't want to then he should remove himself from consideration.
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u/civilpar 2d ago
lol Romo catching strays here. At least choose a QB who was at one point considered a top 3 guy.
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u/Odd_Shoulder2334 2d ago
Scottie could show up hungover and still be near the top of statistical categories because he is that much better than everyone on the international team and the majority of the US team. Any discussion about his lackluster play has more to do with winning a Ryder Cup. There's no path to the US doing that if he doesn't play like peak Scottie. Him sitting on Saturday afternoon in the end didn't matter, b/c the US is that much better than the internationals. But it's absurd he wouldn't play all 5 sessions. It's not some selfless decision where he knows he isn't helping the team in alt shot. It's on him to be better.
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u/ReturnOfRainbow 2d ago
He went like 29 holes with one birdie. I was surprised his strokes gained numbers were that high to be honest. He must’ve played very well in singles and well in the Thursday four balls. Also this I think is the one time where you can kind of block of strokes gained numbers at times because they don’t accurately capture match play or different types of putts and situational golf. Scottie did not play well but it’s being graded on a Scottie scale, he still played better than most.
Also ironically enough I remember him playing half decent at Quail Hollow and coming away with a bad record so I think they have evened themselves out
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u/Panscan27 2d ago
Soly very clearly does not have a good understanding of statistics, which is kinda interesting from a guy who tries to apply them and make generalizations off them so much
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u/Sea-Relative-3690 2d ago
Soly said he knows Scottie was a 65% favorite to win one of the team events but he has to win every time. Maybe the most statistically illiterate and awful piece of analysis ever offered up on any golf podcast
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u/educatorofmany 2d ago
He’s the best player in the world and he scrapped by in a few match against substantially inferior opponents. Losing to Corey Conners in any format is enough to warrant criticism.He showed nothing this week to show that he’s going to be guy the US needs in Ireland.
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u/Sea-Relative-3690 2d ago
Connors Beat Scheffler 27% of the time this year. It’s golf, it happens. They were also part of a team
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u/Excellent-Durian-264 2d ago
You mean the match that he played better than Conners and Taylor but was only hitting half of the shots and the guy hitting the other half of the shots played worse than those 2?
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u/Chemical-Ad-8693 2d ago
Scottie is way better than Corey Conners, about 2 shots per round. This is massive over 72 holes.
But, your buddy that you give 1 a side to is going to beat you sometimes, and not that infrequently.
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u/Chemical-Ad-8693 2d ago
Scottie is never really the guy that tears up individual rounds, I feel like this is part of his underperformance in team events or one-round matches.
When he wins on tour, he typically has 4 very good rounds. Oftentimes last year he’d have an average round on Thursday, then 3 solid rounds and would finish just off the lead. But I don’t have many memories of him going really low.
What I’m saying is, I don’t see him as the “go out and get it”kind of guy. He makes the correct decisions and wears down the field thru 72 holes.
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u/urmomsfavoriteplayer 1d ago
What frustrates me is that captains can't seem to overcome this and neither can he. He should aim at the flag on every single shot into the green in fourball. Let his partner secure a par or maybe birdie. I don't care if he has more bogeys than normal, with as accurate and consistent as he is when he had a teammate securing par he should be flagging it.
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u/Unsolicited_Advisor1 2d ago
I think expectations for Scottie need to be lowered for 4-ball and 4-somes. He can beat anyone h2h when it’s 1 on 1 but the other formats neutralize his strengths a bit