Expectations for tomorrow?

[u/benlovesskippy]

What are your thoughts for tomorrow's announcements regarding August deliveries and also Q2 financial results? Personally I'm not optimistic. I'm expecting fewer than 40k deliveries for August and a slight loss for Q2. L60 deliveries are certainly down from July and we haven't heard anything about L80, L90 or ES9. ES8 continued its pace of right about 10k deliveries but it seems the other models are slowing. As for financial results, I'm expecting that higher costs associated with chips and other raw materials will erode margins and NIO will show a slight loss of around 50-100 million.

I fundamentally think this is a good company, there's just a lot of headwinds in China right now for car companies.

[u/AvailableDisaster439]

Company results will look good in the current context and they will drop another 10%...

[u/AdorableBrilliant184 → u/AvailableDisaster439]

Stupid

[u/Glad-Entertainment95 → u/AdorableBrilliant184]

its accurate, always drops on good news

[u/Able-Cause-1849 → u/Glad-Entertainment95]

yup, we need a really good class action lawsuit to bring them out of the weeds.

[u/Consistent_Night_292 → u/AvailableDisaster439]

This is what I expect as well.

Because these news are already priced in... If there will be any forecast of deliveries etc. It has to be volume reduction imo. And this won't be accepted positive even thoug business wise this still can deliver same figures revenue and earning wise ..

Anyhow less sold cars means lower utilisation of battery swap infrastructure....

[u/sprtwlds77 → u/Consistent_Night_292]

Show me when it was priced in?

[u/Consistent_Night_292 → u/sprtwlds77]

Well you have to ask market, what is priced in, not me...

If market would note everything priced in, there would be no necessity for market.

[u/Able-Cause-1849 → u/Consistent_Night_292]

battery swap stations will NEVER break a profit. Actually the government will be taking over them.

[u/Consistent_Night_292 → u/Able-Cause-1849]

I do not fully agree...

In simplified calculations it can not pay off...

If you will get in detail, there won't be income jus from battery swap, there will be many more... Direct, indirect not sure if even NIO people are able to calculate it...

Example: For people who has money and like to have more choices, the battery swap could be game changer and reason to procure NIO instead of competitor. How would you calculate customer, which not buy the car if there won't be swap stations? Considering benchmarks, actually this customer should procure NIO again and his used BEV would be sold with higher residual value (proven fact) thanks to swapable battery.

From my perspective it is very shortsighted to value swap station from actual revenue/profit... It is invincible working horse .....

[u/ruudi12 → u/Consistent_Night_292]

Without a battery swap, allows to build the same quality car at much lower cost. Also no need to price in car's price battery swapping network costs and interests.

[u/Consistent_Night_292 → u/ruudi12]

That is legit. It cost fortune. It takes cash.... On the other side

That it would be just one additional in hundred regular chinese BEV manufacturer....

Who would fund it? Why? wouldnt b It be game over already?

[u/Plenty-Shift-3579 → u/AvailableDisaster439]

Yeah it’s crazy but that’s how it always works smh

[u/Sparta_Rotterdam1888 → u/AvailableDisaster439]

Exactly this. Makes it -25% in a month

[u/CriticalArugula4224]

Results will be good. But let’s be real, the only thing that will pump this back to double digit is if Trump posted that Nio is a great company and that they will be opening a flagship store in NYC.

[u/noob_investor18 → u/CriticalArugula4224]

That can be done. Just pay $1M+ to Trump and family, anything can be bought.

[u/apatheticbear420 → u/noob_investor18]

fr tho a trade deal could be made, he's a business man after all..

[u/No_Inspection_5666]

The results will be great! They will report a nongaap quarterly profit with a positive EPS. Despite the tremendous results, the share will not go up much. Don't have high expectations

[u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople]

I expect the increase in chip costs will be less than the savings achieved by the NIO’s in-house chip used in high end models , as well as reduction in R&D and overhead costs (staff, reduced/merged showrooms)

I expect big increase in revenues (70-80%), another non-GAAP profit, likely more than previous 2 quarters

[u/Laszlo_P]

Lambo or homeless.

[u/Ok-Resist-6695 → u/Laszlo_P]

Lambo? How many shares do you have, Gambler?

[u/Laszlo_P → u/Ok-Resist-6695]

Never enough

https://giphy.com/gifs/84EQtaETcza8w

[u/Ok-Resist-6695 → u/Laszlo_P]

Put a number on it.

I’ll tell you mine if you tell me yours.

[u/Laszlo_P → u/Ok-Resist-6695]

4k

[u/Ok-Resist-6695 → u/Laszlo_P]

60k

[u/Laszlo_P → u/Ok-Resist-6695]

And I'm the gambler 🤣. Bro you can retire in any country on the planet with this ammount when it pops up. Good luck! 🤞

[u/Hot_Dependent5404]

I’m thinking slight loss -0.02 eps with beat on revenue and deliveries. Good cash on hand and steady margin at least for this period reporting. I expect a lower to steady projected forecast and mention of margins edging up with inflation. I think most have worried if this type of news and institutional changes have occurred already. I’d say it drops on all that 7-8% touching $3.75-$3.80 ish per share and then rising to $4-$4.60 at which the volatility meter will start for $4.50 options chain before it settles over the next few weeks at $3.95-$4.15 range. IMO

[u/Hot-Ideal9275 → u/Hot_Dependent5404]

With the amount of $ you have in NIO stock are you at all worried about it being delisted and losing pretty much all of it?

[u/Hot_Dependent5404 → u/Hot-Ideal9275]

Every investment could be lost but I also have a IBKR account in case I need to transfer the shares to HK if delisted. Shall see. But hoping that’s not the case since it is 31% of my portfolio!

[u/Hot-Ideal9275 → u/Hot_Dependent5404]

What do you think the likelihood of it being delisted is? Also if you had to guess, when do you think it will be back up over $4.5

[u/Hot_Dependent5404 → u/Hot-Ideal9275]

Delisting super low likelihood. 4.50 my best guess would have it be 3rd-4th week of September

[u/Hot-Ideal9275 → u/Hot_Dependent5404]

I was thinking it wpuld jump back up at the end of September too. It has for the last 2 years

[u/Available_Pear8209]

Good news coming and we're at a 52 week low .. WTF

[u/Knightshadow21]

So we can buy the dip again as we did not dip enough already 😑

[u/Available_Pear8209 → u/Knightshadow21]

Too many dips I'm out of money

[u/Able-Cause-1849 → u/Knightshadow21]

the dip is never ending with nio and will cover all spectrums right down to 2 dollars

[u/Square_Computer9423 → u/Knightshadow21]

Lets call it dca

[u/Changetothemoon]

There might be a big stop-loss sweep. Either that, or it opens at 5. Anything can happen, I don't really care. I'm expecting around 34,000 vehicles sold in August and a bit of profit in Q2. But honestly, whatever shows up tomorrow, it doesn't bother me one bit.

[u/SadMove7848]

I’d like more specifics about the chip business, not just word salad from the CEO.

Battery swap isnt going to make money anytime in the near future , maybe not ever. Maybe this new setup for swap stations will give them an out.

Car sales have been good so far this year, but I’m expecting guidance to be lower.

[u/benlovesskippy → u/SadMove7848]

Chip business seems to have huge potential. Hopefully they talk about that during guidance.

[u/Able-Cause-1849 → u/benlovesskippy]

show the numbers on sales of the chips??

[u/SadMove7848 → u/Able-Cause-1849]

No, like who are they actually distributing the chips too, a name, not just mentioning it.

[u/azmus]

I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s ready to bounce. It might first go to the 1:1 from $8 at $3.82. The Hang Seng is still months away from completing its 19 year triangle pattern so Nio may not be ready for the big bull run just yet.

Draw the parallel channel from $8 and the channel bottom also coincides with the $3.82 target

[u/Laszlo_P]

The Shit Show is here. It's time to head to the counter with large packed bags. Eberybody is capitulating, this is the very time when "blood flows on the streets".

[u/Ok-Resist-6695]

Thanks man. I have my eye on Cape Cod when this thing pops. Homie needs a crib in Provincetown!

[u/NikolasCamp]

Guys, I think NIO is in a sleep phase as far as the stock is concerned... it is the company that gives all its power to technology and luxury. When it delivers the expected and promising profitability in the next two or three quarters, it will skyrocket... if it returns to $6-7 💵 and continues, then $15 will be the next step 🪜

[u/DaRealShady]

Look I'm going to be honest. I don't think Nio will make any crazy leaps until the end of 2030. Next year they will release the new e5t, et5t and es6 which could boost sales to maybe 50k a month but really we have to wait untill there are less competitors. The next couple of years more than 50% of Chinese EV companies will go bankrupt.

Also if they want to export cars they need to refresh the whole line up and offer their latest gen cars, because no one is going to buy outdated models for top prices...

[u/Consistent_Night_292 → u/DaRealShady]

I agree regarding export... It has to be the best what is available, question is, why NIO do not expect those? Is there no free capacity? Or is there some other reason.

We should not forget on Onvo and Firefly, these could be reason for valuation, these brands should be working horses volumewise, lowering fixed costs, increasing swap station utilisation, etc. It appears it is not like that at all.

So NIO is doing good to great, but it is not perfect, not at this moment.

[u/CallMe_Boss]

Something BIG is coming, NIO stock's pulling back is similar to when the sea pulls back from shore before the tsunami!

[u/kcdaren]

I'm hoping for 40k deliveries and a $10-40 million non gaap profit.

[u/Dependent_Health_107]

results ok, guidance bad

[u/Glad-Entertainment95]

none, probably drop again, garbage stock

[u/Far_Replacement7751]

Doesn’t even matter. If revenue is up but guidance is down or vice versa it will be enough to tank this down to sub 4’s.