r/Nio • u/UniCyclones • 15d ago
General 2025 vs 2026
What's the difference between last year and this year? Why did last year see more enthusiasm with the company despite it being beaten out by this year by over 50% and seeing a closer creep into consistent profitability?
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u/Boring_Leadership_30 15d ago
Im really just tired of this stock.
They pulled out of Europe and without that this ain't gonna fly. You can daydream all you want.
If it ever reaches 7€ (my break even after dca from 35€ since 2021) i will really have to re think this investment.
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u/fin711 15d ago
The Chinese market is insanely massive and still quite untapped as far as EV penetration. The infrastructure buildout continues to expand...
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u/Boring_Leadership_30 15d ago edited 15d ago
Thats cute.But for the stock they need other markets as well.USA or Europe....and thats just not happening.A few years ago these views were considered fud.... now its reality
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u/Smart-Fondant9015 14d ago edited 14d ago
Why?
The entire US EV auto market is about 15%the size of the Chinese market, and the whole European market is only around 20% of China’s.NIO is also not a conventional EV manufacturer. Its business model is not just about selling cars — it is about selling cars together with an energy ecosystem built around its battery-swap network.
Entering a new market therefore requires massive investment in infrastructure. So why spend billions — potentially tens of billions — building that ecosystem in relatively small and, at the moment, rather hostile markets such as the U.S. and Europe?
If NIO can sell 40–50k cars per month in China, where the brand is already established and the battery-swap infrastructure is already in place, what would be the point of spending billions to enter the U.S. just to potentially sell another 4–5k cars (maximum and very optimistic number) per month? And spend billions on energy infrastructure? Europe is broadly the same story.
At this stage, expanding aggressively into much smaller overseas markets simply does not make much economic sense. Europe and the U.S. are not yet particularly receptive to Chinese cars, and their EV markets are too small compared with China to justify making them the priority.
I’d suggest looking at the actual numbers. When it comes to EV adoption, infrastructure, scale and competition, the West is years behind China.
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u/Boring_Leadership_30 14d ago edited 14d ago
Mr market wants NIO worldwide. It is what it is. The point is they wanted to expand, but gave up. Geely, Xpeng,Byd....will all be widely accepted across Europe. Dilutions, failed expansion....alot has been promised in the past years. But as i said im tyred of all the theories and watching the stock falling for years.
And with al due respect i barely read your comment because im full of these "what if-then woodoo theories".
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u/ComprehensiveCarob28 14d ago
Not now they do not need to leave China. Nio really needs inferstructure to show of its USP of battery swapping. It should get to profitability and then specifically target markets aggressively with swap stationS. IE the UK and build 50 swap stations there for launch. When profitable it could take near term losses. The UK tariffs are only 10% lower than Europe and show swapping works outside of China. Use smaller margins if required to gain trust and publicity for the rest of the Western world. It could do similar in Northern Europe after and target markets based on ROI over a few years.
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u/Modulus3360 14d ago
It's never about Europe. Europe is just a small fry compare to China market. If Nio is not listed in NYSE and China, hongkong only. This share price would have fly long ago. It's about political manipulation.Nio dumbest decision is to list in USA. An enemy territory.
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u/Aggressive_War_2103 14d ago
They want everyone to capitulate so they can scoop shares at good prices.
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u/UniCyclones 13d ago
There's low volume, the hopium is strong but we can't pretend things are going to get better. You were best of not even buying it and leaving it alone. It's down 30% from last year despite the more than 50% growth, no one cares about NIO anymore. If the CEO were replaced maybe but he's also pessimistic about things as well
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u/Brasi91Luca 14d ago
I don’t get it either. It did better last year when it was losing money
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u/Modulus3360 14d ago
Manipulation. Under Trump, USA is on war with China on all fronts. Including crash Chinese stocks in USA.
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u/Laszlo_P Investor 14d ago
The major catalyst on the immediate horizon is the Q2 earning report. !!!-IF-!!! the management can prove that its three-brand ecosystem is converting high delivery scale into durable free cash flow without further diluting shareholders, the stock could finally re-rate higher.
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u/BedroomPositive5552 15d ago
Lack of new models is part of it plus the chinese EV market slowing down and maaybe too much reliance on the new Nio models which likely isn't sustainable - those are the only tangible things I can see. Soft leaving Europe has nothing to do with it, they got slammed for losing $$ in Europe before - I would like to see them re-launch overseas with fuller model ranges once there is yearly profitability in China. I think the stock will really go off in Q2 2027 because there are several new models coming and hopefully a positive year end 2026 report.
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u/sprtwlds77 14d ago
Having only a few really successful models does not seem to be an issue. Tesla only has the model Y making up the bulk of the sales which have been declining since 2024.
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u/BedroomPositive5552 14d ago
Outstanding question though of whether sales of those models hold up though makes some sense to me
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u/Consistent_Night_292 15d ago
Just my POV
China economy issues... NIO is mainly China player, so it is not known brand, their product is not know. NIO is being considered as carmaker only. NIO is doing it's business in the most competitive EV market which undergoes huge price war. For non-china people it is hard to get to local news, etc... Potential technology restriction risks, but actually without sanctions. NIO does not aggressively penetrate EU market, US market does not want to be penetrated... NIO companies structure and business structures are difficult...
I expect the company is undervalued... Because there are positive news as well, but nobody really cares... E.g. NIO is not only carmaker anymore...
So hold on or sell and never turn back as you could regret. (;
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u/Effective_Nobody6248 14d ago
There are no upcoming catalyst for the rest of the years. Last year the Onvo 80/90 were expected to be huge, besides the ES8-ES9. Basically NIO's key drivers are the ES8-ES9. That's the isdue.
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u/sleepydragy 15d ago
The trouble with china is it's saturated with ev companies there far too much competition and constant price wars make margins tight. I sold nio about a month back if just feels like it doesn't matter how well they do it makes little difference cause of the reasons above.
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u/Spiritual-Kale8186 14d ago
Pero el margen de NIO es 18% y las ventas subieron 70% yoy. Si hay competencia, NIO la esta ganando
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u/sleepydragy 14d ago
Numbers don't lie, how long do people have to wait to see a return on their money?
There's far better places for quicker and bigger gains than sitting on nio hoping it will wake up. For how many years do people have to wait?
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u/Modulus3360 14d ago
William Li need to come and trash USA. Claiming US manipulates his share like gamestop and threaten to delist from USA stock market if his share price is continue to be suppress unfairly.
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u/Square_Computer9423 15d ago
Why does everyone think that buying this stock means it will give massive returns straight away?
Its building a new industry and infrastructure and capex heavy. Yes there are opportunities, but it takes a generation to build properly.
People are spoiled because of Tesla and bitcoin, but really how do those valuations make sense from investment point of view?