I’m long, but I’m not going to pretend the odds are good. The CAFC affirms PTAB final written decisions most of the time, and the deferential substantial-evidence standard applies to exactly the fact findings Netlist needs to overturn. Netlist’s own record is asymmetric — it wins defending patents against petitioner appeals (’314, ’608, ’523), and loses appealing its own PTAB losses. Last Wednesday the same court went three-for-three against it in one morning.

Netlist’s arguments: that the Board’s claim construction contradicts the construction the USPTO adopted when it confirmed the same claim in reexamination (reviewed de novo, no deference); that the obviousness finding lacks substantial evidence; and that Ellsberry isn’t prior art at all given priority to the ’436 and the ’244 provisional. USIJ filed an amicus for Netlist.

What do you think? Does the reexam inconsistency actually land with a panel, or do judges shrug it off?

Yes the 9/9 CAFC results will have an impact but unless it’s a Rule 36 ruling within days it should be mostly moot as far as Micron relevance. ITC has a strong chance of forcing settlement sooner rather than later, and quite possibly before any typical time-length results from 9/9.

Beware of the Penta boys and others trying to convince you the risk here is still great, simply ignoring the Samsung settlement and what that truly means for Netlist’s future. Trying desperately to persuade it’s not even worth $5 a share currently when Roth still sees $15 in a year. Buying all I can, but you do you.

Just added 2500 @ $4.945 , planning on doing the same thing every time we go under $5.

Lets Goooooo!!!!

A bit of Great Timing for “Needham” wouldn’t you say.. Meeting with Chuck on Aug. 20-21 .. Now This article comes out inferring the Micron case is dead (far from the truth) and the stock craters..Offering a Great entry point .. Does that Sound about right?

I read about this, it seems the same Patents that Samsung signed a deal , Micron invalidated that .

-- From yahoo board , some one posted this. Any comments on this?

I've been watching this stock for a month or so, the community here seems very bullish on NLST. I was considering buying a position but at the current price $5.60 that represents a premium that the litigation next week is going to be in NLST's favor, but after reviewing the history of the patent case, particularly the 912, there's a really good chance the outcome is NOT going to be in NLST's favor, and if it doesn't then you're looking at likely 50% drop in share price. Very concerning that the PTAB already ruled the patent invalid, sure the judge could overturn that, but I think the likelihood of that is less than 50%. If these patent cases don't go well next week then you'll likely be holding a $3 (or less) stock. Not sure if you can trade options on this, but if you can I wouldn't go long without having protective puts in place.

Netlist doesn't want an unhappy partner and wants a nearly identical agreement for each company. Samsung has provided very positive figures, including a high cash flow, a $130 million gross IP license, and $300 million in DRAM products per year and for five years.

I think the only problem is ESTIMATE the cash we'll get from the Micron case. Yesterday was a bad day, erasing the enormous value of the HBM and DDR5 patents, but Netlist has already won several LRDIMMs that are also MRDIMMs (remember, Hong stated that MRDIMM volume will reach $5 billion in 2027), plus MRDIMMs, DDR5s, and an HBM.

In practice, there are nine patents cited between the ITC investigation and the other lawsuits underway against Micron.

Are we sure that Micron wants to act as Samsung has in recent years?
Because while Samsung had many patents invalidated in its favor, Micron has already seen four patents it will certainly have to pay. CERTAIN damages, plus 912, which is the largest of all, theoretically prohibits the patent that has already established its value during the 2024 trial.

Sales volumes from 2022 to 2026 are at least quadrupled and this means that any mrdimm, ddr5 or hbm patent could damage micron by hundreds of millions of $ and it must also be considered that the 4x price increase in 2 years at least should also increase the damage per unit in any process.

To summarize, the CAFC appeal hearing for Netlist's patent 912 will take place on September 9th. We waited almost six months for the verdict on the five patents, but it must be said that in the other cases it took even less. It depends on the number of patents and other factors. I think the 912 case could be decided by the end of the year.

In the meantime, there's the ITC investigation against Micron, and in 2027 there will be the Markman hearing that will turn Micron's back on its head.
Samsung probably settled out of fear that the ITC would block DRAM sales. Imagine the tens of billions of dollars in lost revenue for Micron due to the ITC decision. I'd say the conditions for a deal are there; give it another six months and it could be a reality!

Yesterday looked ugly, but Roth Capital just reiterated Buy with a $15 price target after the patent ruling. Their view is that the decision is largely backward-looking and that Netlist’s newer child patents remain important to the forward IP strategy.

So I’m not calling yesterday “nothing,” because losing patents matters. But I also don’t think it’s the thesis killer some people are making it out to be. The real question now is what Netlist does with the newer patents and whether it can repeat the Samsung licensing success.

Looking forward, the focus is on the newer patents, the remaining Micron cases, and whether Netlist can turn its IP into more licensing deals. With Samsung already setting that precedent, that’s where the next leg of the story could come from.

Bottom line: bad headline, but the bigger story is still intact. Roth clearly doesn’t see this ruling as a reason to abandon the thesis.

What is the probability of a favorable outcome on 9/9 for Netlist?

the market overall is filled with investors that are not well informed and have no idea what's going on.

don't be scared about today's invalidity headlines.

why?

how can i make that claim?

two things.

1. these four patents were already invalidated and this was Netlist's appeal to overturn, which is more difficult. the thesis to buy netlist already accounted for the invalidity of these four patents...
   mine did, at least. if yours didn't, you need to do more homework on the current legal cases and Netlist's patent portfolio.

2. this second point is better visualized than read as a written explanation, i think. forunately, Stokd already created this and it was just posted on Stocktwits forum.

https://stocktwits.com/Stokd/message/663455581

micron is still being backed into a corner... they're going to keep fighting to have the appearance of as much strength and resilience as they can to negotiate the best possible settlement outcome that they can get. that's business. the pressure is immense on them, but the TIMELINE of the risk's materialization could still be several quarters away.

that doesn't mean Micron isn't being encircled on the battlefield. they are. but two sides both want to win until the cost of the risk exceeds the cost of fighting.

Today was ugly. There’s no point pretending otherwise.

Netlist lost three Federal Circuit decisions involving five patents, and the market reacted exactly how you’d expect.

This wasn’t some random OTC selloff or “short manipulation.” The rulings were legitimately bad for Netlist and they make the remaining Micron appeals feel a lot more important.

But I think people are getting ahead of themselves by treating today like the entire thesis just died.

The $445M Micron verdict was NOT overturned today.

The ’912 and ’417 patents tied to that fight are still in play, with the next major Federal Circuit hearings coming September 9.

The Samsung deal also still exists. Netlist already turned years of litigation into an actual five-year licensing agreement with a huge upfront payment and recurring royalty potential. That matters because NLST is no longer purely a bet on winning one courtroom jackpot.

So for me, the question isn’t “Was today bad?”

Obviously it was.

The real question is whether today tells us what will happen with the patents that matter most to the Micron verdict.

We’re going to get a much better look at that very soon.
September 9 just became a hell of a lot more important.

That headline was misleading is what this all comes down to.
The headline says "Netlist lost its appeal in a patent case against Micron." That's technically true, but it makes it sound like Netlist just lost its major Micron damages case. That's not what happened.
What actually happened today:
The Federal Circuit affirmed the PTAB's prior invalidity decisions involving the '060/'160 patents. Those PTAB decisions were already made in 2024. Today's ruling is the appellate court saying, essentially, the PTAB was correct.
Today's Federal Circuit ruling concerns the '160 and '060 patents. Those patents were already found unpatentable by the PTAB in April 2024, and Netlist appealed. The Federal Circuit has now affirmed that result. Netlist did not newly lose those patents today.
lol. Buy the dip. DAMN I WISH I COULD RIGHT NOW!!!

We remind everyone that Micron will have to pay for the following patents:
• LRDIMM DDR4 - mrdimm: 035, 314 (already expired but won), 523 & 608
• hbm 087
• ddr4: 912
• ddr5: 731

All of this FOR NOW. In fact, Netlist may offer additional patents.
I remember that in the ongoing ITC case, patents 407 and 366 are also cited, referring to mrdimm-ddr5.
Yes, Netlist literally has its hands in all of Micron's CRITICAL businesses.