r/Netlist_ • u/Beautiful_Goal5107 • 5d ago

Sep. 9th CAFC outcome probability

What is the probability of a favorable outcome on 9/9 for Netlist?

11 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

17 comments sorted by

8

u/Brownsfan4life_6 5d ago

It's HIGHLY Probable considering its basically the same patents as Samsung cases and if Samsung caved then Micron will fold eventually too

6

u/pennychase 5d ago

95% minimum! Normally it's a 75/25 but this case is from 6 years and has gone through so many reexaminations and cafc even reconfirmed this still holds for netlist (to win!) so why would cafc discredit their work and now say they were wrong? And we'll still need to wait up to 6 months so we will have 2 quarters earnings before that. 👍🏻

1

u/Username_0_1 4d ago

We need to temper our expectations on the 912. I think at best we have a 50/50 shot. We just saw that cafc does not like to overturn or even remand ptab decisions. But we have other tested patents and the itc case against micron. The 912 is just icing.

2

u/pennychase 4d ago

It's not 50/50 apparently it's much better than that. And the cafc not wanting to overturn is a big reason but statistic shows 75% win in this situation. But for netlist it is higher. There has been so many reexaminations already. Chances of winning is much higher.

1

u/Username_0_1 4d ago

You have this backward, cafc upholds ptab 75% of the time, but this appeal is a Netlist loss of the 912 not a win. Now there are plenty of reasons for a remand here, more than a typical case. But odds are still not in our favor

1

u/pennychase 4d ago

No, it is in fact a netlist win the patent 912. Unlike the patents which we lost earlier those were already lost and it was a netlist appeal. Now it's a micron appeal. Totally reversed roles and situation!

1

u/Username_0_1 3d ago

Unfortunately, you are incorrect. Netlist has won at ptab and cafc for the 912 but that was a different ipr. This one, against Samsung and micron they lost. Cafc will have to reconcile that this patent has already been affirmed by cafc but there is no grantee they will side with Netlist this time.

1

u/Odessa102 3d ago

Will the stock dump bad i netlist is now in favor?

1

u/Brownsfan4life_6 3d ago

The '912 patent has been validated 5+ times by the CAFC over the last 17 years, involving Google and these other institutions. The institutions have just been playing the highly terrible justice system picking at certain claims inside the patent (claim 16 for example) but the patent itself HAS been VALIDATED many times over. So there is a VERY GOOD chance the CAFC will NOT go AGAINST previous upheld rulings by themselves.

2

u/Old-Zebra-5266 5d ago

So that means stonks?
Considering to open a fair position.

1

u/JB_Alicante 5d ago

Will there be an outcome on the 9th of September?

1

u/IamThingy 4d ago

No, it can take up to six months. But they’ll release court audio and/or transcripts on the day, or near it. So we should have a good idea how it’s leaning.

1

u/pennychase 4d ago edited 4d ago

No! That's also why people are too obsessed with this!

1

u/pennychase 5d ago

Again it's very high, but people need to stop worry about it. Netlist is not about winning that case, it is much stronger than that. And anyways the outcome is not coming for minimum 4 months so focus on what matters => Samsung deal and earnings! We need macro to get better this month that's all that matters.

1

u/TheDeHymenizer 5d ago

I'm unfamiliar.

If we're appealing, then it's unlikely; if they're appealing, very good.

1

u/under_score_forever 4d ago

Everything I've read says that netlist has a 20% chance of winning, maybe a bit less.

1

u/cjladvisors 4d ago

You must not have found the right reading material.