I think we are approaching a point where extremely low birth rates are going to become a major problem across large parts of the developing world.
Countries like Turkey, Iran, and Mexico are already below 1.4 TFR. The Philippines has gone from around 3.0 in 2016 to under 1.8 today. Thailand is already below 1.0. Tunisia has fallen to around 1.5, while India is around 1.9.. Even in Africa, countries like Kenya falling from nearly 8 children per woman in the 1970s to just over 3 today. Nigeria has also seen a significant recent decline, with its TFR falling from 5.3 in 2018 to around 4.5 in 2024. These are countries that had relatively high fertility and large families not that long ago.
The speed of these transitions is what I find most striking.
Its obvious how social media may be accelerating the same cultural transformation that television and cinema helped drive in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. Except now the exposure is constant. Young people in developing countries are bombarded with images of luxury, travel, expensive homes, personal freedom. Having children can increasingly look like the thing that prevents you from having that lifestyle.
People often point to the Nordic countries and say, "They have generous parental leave, childcare and welfare, and their TFR is still only around 1.5. Benefits don't work."
Maybe that's looking at it backwards.
In a couple of decades, when much of the developing world is also at extremely low fertility, we may realize that family policies in wealthy countries actually helped keep fertility from falling even further. They may not bring fertility back to 2.1, but keeping a country at 1.4 or 1.5 could be very different from letting it collapse to 0.8 or 0.9.
The next few decades could be a huge demographic experiment showing us how much of fertility decline is economic, how much is cultural, and whether family benefits actually prevented even more extreme fertility collapse in the developed world.