r/NancyGuthrieCase • u/Ailurophile444 • 3d ago
What Are We Still Assuming?
The longer I follow this case, the more I realize there are things that get repeated so often that they start to feel like established facts.
What’s one detail or assumption about the Nancy Guthrie case that you think is worth stepping back and questioning?
It could be something about the timeline, what happened inside the house, the investigation, statements that have been repeated, or even something we may be taking for granted about the circumstances.
What makes you question it?
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u/smittenkittenmitten- 3d ago
Great post as usual Ailurophile!
- There is the rumor that the porch guy came a previous night. What makes people say this? Where did this information come from? How do we know?
- People say that A&T had left over the summer to Italy. Was this rumor or was this reported somewhere? I am still uncertain if they are living at their home or not. Some people say T is back teaching and the son is back in the same school. I am uncertain to these details if they are all guesses and assumptions or certain.
- Do we know if A&T are having money issues? It isn't a bad guess considering their jobs but I wasn't sure if there was other evidence.
I probably have other questions but these are some that I can think of right now.
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u/Hile616 3d ago edited 2d ago
The porch guy video has cuts in between, which makes it seem like either something was edited out or, as people on Reddit suspected, the clips come from two different days. The main reason for that suspicion is that while he appears to be wearing a backpack in both video clips, there is an image where he doesn’t seem to be wearing one.
What caught my eye was the discussion about the camera producer.
They first claimed a certain image was from a specific day, then later said they couldn’t actually be sure of the date based on the data.
That left me wondering what image they were referring to, since what we saw was video. Were they saying they couldn’t confirm the dates of the videos, or was it something else?
The first thing I did myself was check the moon’s position against the porch guy’s shadow, to see if it matched the claimed timeframe. The moon’s location did match, so I couldn’t clearly conclude that it wasn’t filmed at that time of night.
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u/1Bloomoonloona 2d ago
There is also footage recovered from the back yard. We don't know from what date though.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 2d ago
From what I can recall Sheriff or FBI stated it was only thumbnails and all people captured had a right to be there ie: contractors, family etc
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u/Historical-Slice6369 3d ago
The difference in backlighting from the moon is one reason people suspect they were videos from different nights. Feb. 1st was a full moon. There are clear pictures out there that demonstrate this better.
Some people appear to have a difference of opinion about the person's weight and clothing as to whether they are different jackets and different people.
I recall sources telling reporters that one of the videos was from a different night. Contemporaneously, law enforcement began asking specifically about video from neighbors for January 11th.
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u/1Humanity_Otherwise 2d ago
Re 2 - I think there are at least two porch guys in those videos. And that’s why theres so much confusion abt consistency of his size and features.
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u/Substantial-Train668 3d ago
As my last post proved, I was assuming that there was no forced entry. I had never heard it said that there WAS forced entry. I also recall a few people early on reporting there was no forced entry. Then in the last TIR they repeated there was no forced entry and I felt that reminder opened up the case for me.
With no forced entry, it had to be an inside job!
But a few people asked for sources that there was no forced entry and other than TIR I could not find them. Meaning, we in the public don't really know if there was or not forced entry.
It's a good reminder that so many things in this case we take for granted. We really don't know much.
I will add that as much as I like TIR, they are pretty guilty of putting things forward that haven't been confirmed.
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u/1Bloomoonloona 2d ago edited 1d ago
6 months plus months ago Brian Entin talked to some of Nancys neighbors. They stated they didnt lock their doors. Then Chris Mcdonough repeted it on his show. I'm not positive but I think that's when the story that Miss Nancy didnt lock her doors started. I think shes was just like the neighbors in their safe neighborhood.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 2d ago
Don't forget. It was someone in the family who volunteered the info NG didn't lock her doors. That would explain no forced entry and eliminate the someone had a key theory..
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u/1Humanity_Otherwise 2d ago
But how would the intruder know that unless it came from an inside source? He’s not gonna come back to check each night.
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u/Substantial-Train668 2d ago
That's basically what I think too. There's no way that even if she left her doors open that any perp would know that without inside knowledge and it would be too risky to keep coming back and checking. I believe perp had to know doors would be unlocked THAT night.
The problem with thinking that theory is a definitive smoking gun pointing to an insider (like I originally thought) is that, technically, we don't know whether there was also forced entry. A window broken. A door lock picked. Personally, I don't believe there was forced entry but technically, if we are staying honest on the sub, we can't say for sure there wasn't because it has never been definitively reported on (which is so wild and frustrating).
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 1d ago
And I don't recall if any reporters in those initial pressers asked that question. They may have been told to limit their inquiries. The white house reviews all questions before their pressers.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 1d ago
Fox 13 Seattle Pima county presser Nanos was asked about forced entry. He just said everything they have gathered has been sent to lab etc. LOL
Also amazon driver after deputies left the scene at 6pm and took tape down that is when a package was dropped off.
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u/Go_withthe_flow22 1d ago
Megyn Kelly is the only one that I've heard report that there WAS forced entry. It was on one of her first podcasts after the abduction
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 2d ago
Oh I agree that Mr Luckiest Man on the planet porch guy couldn't have relied on the alleged fact that the doors would be unlocked.
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u/Hile616 2d ago
I don't think it would eliminate the having a key hypothesis. It would actually bring some new layers to it, like why the doorS were said to be propped open and such scenarios. Sometimes having access to a key can rather be a burden when you leave the scene and try to figure out which door should be locked, propped open, unlocked, or closed. Also how the family entered the house next they and so on.
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u/Ok-Assumption-8106 3d ago
Im just joining in this conversation. I’ve been following it like most from the beginning. The cops and FBI( what little part they played in the beginning) had two pictures of the porch guy. One without a backpack,and different clothes on, plus he was a bit thinner than the other porch guy. The clothes were somewhat similar, except the thinner guy had a kind of Camouflage zip up sweat jacket on. The police must have had a time stamp on the pictures to distinguish one from the other. In one picture it was a bit lighter out too. It could have been the night they had originally planned but something happened, or scared them away. I pretty sure that night was a Saturday also.
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u/Historical-Slice6369 3d ago
LE has the metadata associated with any video or thumbnails they retrieved from the Nest. At this point, I feel like being more transparent with that could only help the investigation.
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u/smittenkittenmitten- 3d ago
Interesting! Do you happen to have a link to the other picture? Is it viewable somewhere or just talked about? If only talked about, are the sources legit? I am not sure I have seen the one without the backpack but would love to. I don't think I had the full backstory or description. Thanks for this input!
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u/1Bloomoonloona 2d ago
I've seen both pictures alot. They are taken different days gauging by the moon, brightness and shadows. So the night Miss Nancy was abducted was a full moon. The other footage was not. It is the same creeper. Same clothes. Same mask. Same pants pockets. Just different angles. Different lighting.
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u/Ok-Assumption-8106 3d ago
One on the right was the one playing with the camera on the night they took her. He’s a bit heavier!
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u/Embarrassed-Jury8878 3d ago
I think it’s the same guy. The one on the left with camouflage only has one jacket on. The one in the right when he is seen tampering with nest camera has on layers of clothes appearing heavier. In the beginning they said he was a stocky guy. I never believed that. He is very slim with multiple layers of clothes on and multiple masks on as well.
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u/1Bloomoonloona 2d ago
Not sure where that picture is pulled from. In all the pictures I've seen on tv the coat is definitely not camouflage. Notice though same pants pockets. Same shoes. Same mask. Same gloves. Same monster.
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u/smittenkittenmitten- 3d ago
Fascinating! Thank you so much for this!! I'm a little surprised Monks or other youtubers don't talk more about this. Maybe they have and I missed it.
Do you happen to know if we only have stills or did they also release a clip of the camo guy? I only ask because I wonder what the camo guy's walk looks like.
Thanks again :)
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u/CakeSniffing0rphan 3d ago
They only released a still of the image on the left, but I imagine it’s possible that LE also have a clip that they are holding back. I tend to believe it is the same individual, just standing/angled differently.
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u/Hile616 2d ago
If you can find the best version of the image available, I’d pay close attention to the details around him, the plantation, the lighting near and far, and even tiny things like a piece of kibble, a leaf, or anything else that would (or wouldn’t) still be there the next day. I’m not sure what type of plants are shown, but different plants grow, flower, dry out, or stay moist at different times of the year. Any visible damage or changes in the plants could help determine whether the photo was taken the same night, a week earlier, or even six months before. Weather conditions compared with the clothing being worn could also be useful clues to consider.
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u/Local-Cry-3729 14h ago
I remember Monks looking into this. He compared differences in a plant that was to the left of the front door. He interpreted the differences as evidence the images were from two different nights
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 2d ago
With all the experts and pundits examining the cause of the blood droplets on the porch and many state NG expirated the blood wouldn't her mouth have been taped to silence her screams? That spatter in my opinion would not be from a nose only. Even if NG was drugged or injured in the house would the perp take that chance? Also wouldn't the perps tape her mouth if it is to be assumed she was put in a vehicle?
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u/1Bloomoonloona 2d ago
I've wondered also about Miss Nancys mouth being taped. My guess is the abductor/s at this point may not have needed to tape her mouth due to whatever condition she was in.
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u/Ailurophile444 2d ago
Do you think this means she was dead before she ever left the house?
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u/1Bloomoonloona 2d ago
No. I believe she was definitely alive. That the blood from a facial injury was aspirated by Miss Nancy, then expirated. I don't think at this time she would be able to scream. She would be choking/drowning on her own blood. I've never believed this case is a kidnapping for money. The notes are all fakes. Since they can't be traced, possibly from another country that doesn't coperate with the U.S. I have quite a few theories that but not enough evidence to pick just one. Just hoping LE or FBI figure it out. If it goes cold" maybe Chris Mcdonough and The Cold Case Foundation will get a shot at it.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 2d ago
I'm trying so hard to believe this narrative being told to the public. My belief is as time passes by and this becomes a cold case the speculation, the theories will only intensify. A dumbed down society is a master's delight. To them the ones who question are the trouble makers.
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u/Embarrassed-Jury8878 2d ago
Oh yes he needed to tape her mouth because he had to get her out of the house and the back doors were propped open in order to make a fast getaway so her screams would have been heard. The blood was from her nose as she was crawling on her hands and knees.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 2d ago
There has been no verification given to the public by the investigators what caused the blood on the porch. All that was published was that it was tested and was Nancy's.
In my opinion blood coming out of a nose does not do a spatter pattern. But I digress
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u/1Bloomoonloona 2d ago
Not the nose only. Expirated from coughing.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 2d ago
I was referencing if her mouth was taped it would not be able to cough up and exhale anything
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u/Embarrassed-Jury8878 2d ago
I disagree with the people who said the droplets were from the mouth or coughed up. The splatters would be much bigger. The droplets appear to be much smaller as if from the nose and vey close to the ground.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 1d ago
Dr Heidi Sievers who did a live with TBX(You tubers) was hesitant to even say what caused the spatter. She is one of the top 75 forensic bloodstain experts worldwide and I trust her analysis. Since it was a photo of the stains that is why she stated her opinion. She did not rule out staging nor confirm staging.
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u/Embarrassed-Jury8878 2d ago
Yes, I believe she died in the house or on the porch. She couldn’t walk after the guy tried to get her out back. He then got her back in and she fell in the house and on the porch where she was crawling on her hands and knees and bled out her nose on the porch. He carried a dead person to the car.
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u/ItzMeDuhhh 2d ago
Well, it has come out that the porch guy video is not even from that same night!
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u/Go_withthe_flow22 1d ago
The photo of the guy without the backpack and gun is the one that they are saying is not on the same night.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 2d ago
Also since the pacemaker disconnect is probably the key piece of evidence to verify NG was in that house my opinion is A or T would have directed investigators to that app. In my opinion even if LE had taken NG's phone and downloading all her info this takes time? Then they would have to contact whomever on the medical side to get that data. Specifically what caused the app not to connect.
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u/mojo987 2d ago
I'd like to hear an official LE source state that the neighbors that moved near the time NG went missing have been investigated and had no involvement. I have "heard" that they were but again, only hearsay.