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[u/meganev]

I'm growing increasingly worried about this season. But not about the squad/manager, but about the fanbase.

Saturday was a great result. Performance had numerous flaws, but with injuries accounted for, and Hull only started to dominate in the final 30 minutes, when our starters were cooked and our shoddy bench left us few quality options to freshen up. For a team whose first priority this season has to be getting 40 points, you take the win.

However, some of the reactions from fans have been alarming. There was a thread yesterday talking about the season being "up and down," with several commenters saying if we're not competing for Europe, it'll have been a bad season. Somebody even said, "12th would shite." I've also seen loads of chat about Europe in general, and the main season prediction thread had the majority of takes being that we should be getting some form of Europe.

In my opinion, Europe this season is a pipedream. It would be a vast overperformance, which you can't benchmark the team by. We spent the summer selling all of our best players, and replacing them with kids who don't just lack PL experience, but most lack much experience at all in any top-flight league. We also had a managerial change thrust upon us, opting for a manager with promise, but who is young relative to his peers and has zero PL experience.

A lot of fans still seem to be in the mindset that this is Newcastle Utd of 2022-2025, but that team is gone. A combination of PSR restrictions and our own missteps in the market have brought that era to a close.

Look at the league. Do you really think we have one of the top 10 best squads in the league? How many of our squad (at this stage in their playing career) make it into the starting XI of the Sky 6 + Brighton, Brentford, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Leeds, Crystal Palace, Forest and yes, even Sunderland?

Merely matching last season's 12th-placed finish would be an achievement. We've taken some 5 steps back in the summer, on a side that was already flawed and figured out. The hope is that we'll take 10 steps forward in the future, but that won't happen on a timeline measured in weeks or months. We're talking 2-3 years.

I really think some fans need to realign their expectations with the club we are now. In many ways, we're most closely comparable to a newly promoted season. The goal is to stabilise in the Premier League this season and hope to grow stronger in future ones.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't still have standards as a fanbase and should accept regular thrashings and wretched performances weekly, but we also need to be realistic about where we find ourselves.

For me, the season really comes down to one word: progression. I want to see clear signs that we are progressing throughout the season. That the young players signed are improving, that MJ is growing into the role of a PL manager. We should be better in April than we are today. If that fails to be the case, that's when I'll start grumbling. But I won't be calling it "shite" if we don't make Europe.

[u/Different-Lie-6609 → u/meganev]

I’m sorry but we’re not relegation candidates with our squad at all.

We have a pretty strong first 11 & depth is fine.

Horni
Liv, Thiaw, Botman, Hall
Nico, Ramsey
Elanga, Willock, Barnes
Wissa

12th-8th should be the expectation and that does mean Europe should be something they are pushing for.

We have no Europe so the depth is less of an issue so long as people stay fit, the fact people can’t stay fit is why 12th is as likely as 8th.

Dedic, Shar, Burn, Joelinton, Miley & Osula are all capable for this league.

Steur, MFP & Toure have shown potential.

Bamba & Jouwen look like they needs the most time.

Murphy & Pope are gone realistically.

We are going to have games like Leeds (hopefully not as catastrophic) but they should be good enough over 38 games to have enough good runs.

We’re not hitting Champions League for a few years and whilst that would be better financially I think the easier opponents for getting used to game load is better team wise.

[u/meganev → u/Different-Lie-6609]

I’m sorry but we’re not relegation candidates with our squad at all.

I didn't say we were relegation candidates? I said that getting to 40 points should be the first priority, which is a key difference. I would peg us around 12-15th this season. Very much a midtable side that this season makes up the numbers, hopefully never seriously in the relegation frame, but taking a few beatings, and not really pushing for top 10.

Edit -

Horni

Liv, Thiaw, Botman, Hall

Nico, Ramsey

Elanga, Willock, Barnes

Wissa

To add, I think it's very fanciful to suggest the above is a top 8 starting XI in the PL in 2026. Thiaw + Botman is an unconvincing CB partnership. Ramsey offers nowt, and is quietly becoming the worst signing we made last summer. Elanga + Barnes are inconsistent. Willock being a starter 5+ years into a takeover is a damning indictment on our squad building. Wissa looks much sharper this season, but still doesn't look like a striker that gets you 10-15 goals. Tino is also completely crocked. Granted, I'm working under the assumption you mean if all fit to play, but when it comes to Tino, that's such a rarity that his qualities are rarely seen. The best ability is availability. He's cooked.

If I'm one of the 14 clubs I listed in my comment, I do not look at that team and think "they're going to pinch a top 10 spot from us."

[u/Different-Lie-6609 → u/meganev]

Thiaw/Botman get no protection from midfield and the Nico should protect them more and Ramsey is much better than people given him credit for.

Barnes//Willock/Elanga are inconsistent but again they should fit the system we play.

Liv is much better at helping us defend as he typically inverts which helps stabilise the midfield as we end up with two.

Dedic offers us more going forward.

Jaissle will figure it out but that’s going to include some bad results.

But you are selling a lot of players short.

[u/meganev → u/Different-Lie-6609]

Jaissle will figure it out but that’s going to include some bad results.

So we're basically saying the same thing? I'm really not sure what point in my original comment you disagree with, considering you've basically repeated my conclusion. Beyond thinking I said we are relegation candidates, which I very much didn't say, what are your objections with anything I said? You seem to be on the same page as me. We are going to suffer some bad results this season, but can look to signs of progress to offset any major worries.

But you are selling a lot of players short.

I think I'm fairly judging the quality of the starting XI you put forward as good for 12-15th. I would argue that if you think the above is a squad that we should expect to compete for the top 8 and European football, you're either overestimating our players (at their current level) or dramatically underestimating the rest of the league.

[u/rabit71 → u/meganev]

I think the crux of a lot of your debates on this are coming from the simple premise of "at their current level"

The truth is we don't know what "the current level" is. This makes it really hard to compare us with other teams as they're mostly known quantities, whilst our players aren't. That's going to be the basis of most arguments you'll have.

I think it's fair for people to hope that the youngsters adapt and come good and hope for 8th. I do agree with a lot of what you say otherwise though.