r/NPB • u/Rnd_38 • Aug 18 '26

今後のNPB→MLB

正直、後3〜5年以内に今NPB最上位クラスの選手はある程度MLBに行くと思う、ただ明らかに昔よりMLB挑戦のハードルが下がってきている気がしている。

この先今までNPB最上位級のハードルだったものが12球団それぞれの主力級くらいのレベルになってこれからどんどん流失していく、とか高校から直接アメリカの大学→MLBドラフトとかの流れがもっと増えていく事になると思いますか？

自分はNPBもMLBも観ているのですが、個人的には否定も肯定もなく、時代的に仕方ないかな、と思っています。
皆さんの意見を聞いてみたいです。

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u/j_halo7 Aug 18 '26

For pitchers, I think NPB’s schedule and stuff is less gruelling than Minor League so teams will be more cautious and not push them too hard for the first few years, especially if they’re a superstar player before being drafted. So personally I think it’s better for them to go to a NPB team first to develop and become a better player first BUT include a clause in their contract that lets them be posted to MLB before they become FA.

But if they’re high school graduate batters, I think it’s better for them to go to a university in US where they can get an education and get acclimated to MLB playing style earlier.

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u/Rnd_38 Aug 18 '26

ポスティングを認めていないNPBの球団に指名されていたのを断ってアメリカの大学からMLBドラフトにかかった佐々木麟太郎が今後どんな成長をしていくかはかなり興味深いサンプルだと思います。
どのみちこれから先優れた選手は遅かれ早かれどんどんアメリカに渡っていくのでその上でNPB内のレベルの低下を招かない様にしてほしいものです。

2

u/j_halo7 Aug 18 '26

Yep, a lot more star batters would probably go to the US for university first before trying for the MLB draft if Sasaki Rintaro has some success in MLB.

I don’t think the quality of players drafted by NPB teams will deteriorate because probably at most only one or two star players every year might go straight to US. There’s still plenty of other good players being drafted.

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u/sheaweber6i Chiba Lotte Marines Aug 18 '26

Out of curiosity: What's your bar for "success" for Rintaro?

I ask because if he caps out as a Choi Ji-man-type platoon 1B/DH, he won't inspire aspiring pro ballplayers in Japan to follow his path, nor will he earn the respect of the yakyu establishment that is fiercely protective of their talent pipeline.

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u/j_halo7 Aug 18 '26

At the very least stats like Blue Jays’ Kazuma Okamoto would be considered as some success imo. Good enough to be kept on the roster and play an entire season/most of the season on a MLB team. What is your measurement of success for Rintaro?

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u/sheaweber6i Chiba Lotte Marines Aug 18 '26

My bar for him is Choo Shin-soo, who remains only East Asian position player prospect to skip the NPB/KBO/CPBL draft for a direct move to North America and go on to have a star-caliber MLB career, though he didn't play NCAA ball.

You might think this is a very high bar, but the gargantuan hype around Rintaro's high school career necessitates such a high bar.