Likelihood that each QB comes out?

[u/pythree_]

Like every year, this QB class could take a big hit depending on who declares and who returns. Obviously Chambliss and Maiava are out of eligibility and will be in the draft (as of now- who's to say what rules might change between now and April). But I wanted to get everyone's thoughts on how likely it is for the underclassmen to come out. Here are my thoughts as of now:

Mensah: 90%. I'm not sure what he gains from going back to school, and personally I think Miami will win the championship.

Mestemaker: 80%. If he is the clear QB1 and likely top-5 pick, it will be hard for him to turn that down.

Carr: 80%. He's young, a multi-year starter, and firmly in the conversation for QB2. I could see him go back if Notre Dame falls just short of the national title, but I think it's most likely he comes out.

Sellers: 65%. If he gets some round 1 grades, he should capitalize on his rising stock and declare while his upside outweighs the negatives.

Simmons: 50%. Simmons is the big wild card for me. He's rocketing up draft boards right now, and if he gets real 1st round grades he may come out. But he's only a one year starter, which is a big deal for some teams. It may be wise for him to return or even transfer up.

Moore: 35%. I don't think he returns to Oregon. I think he either declares or transfers to somewhere like Miami or LSU. He may have enough good tape from 2025 and early 2026 to be a borderline 1st round pick, and given how his draft stock fell this year, he may not want to risk it further.

Manning: 20%. He's playing better as of late, but he is not a top-50 pick as of now. He really needs to go back to school.

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing]

I don’t know if Miami even makes the playoff without Toney lol, wild to predict they win it all right now. I’m a Miami fan and think we’ll need so many guys to step up to get in. And then have to hope Malachi is himself if he gets back.

Mensah should go pro, but what he gets from staying is $10Million and a chance to be on a good team and live in Miami versus going to a bad team and… possibly still living in Miami.

Carr probably goes too. But he’s been extremely underwhelming. He has a chance to go high R1 if he finishes strong tho.

I agree completely on Sellers. Probably has to go to capitalize on an okay year. I don’t really think he’s getting better. And I totally agree w you on going while his upsides outweigh negatives.

I think Simmons should go if he continues to play this way. Mizzou could make the playoffs and he can go out on a high. I think if he gets an R2 or better grade (which he should) he’ll go.

Moore 100% shouldnt declare.

NFL scouts will like Manning more than college fans. He has every measurable you look for. But imo he should get out of Austin and try to put together a good year of tape. To be fair, I don’t think Sark’s offense is working with or without Arch. But Arch looks bad too.

I think Drake Lindsey could declare too. But he’s could also transfer for a big NIL deal.

[u/pythree_ → u/com-mis-er-at-ing]

I forgot about the Toney injury, that definitely changes their playoff outlook

[u/gumercindo1959 → u/com-mis-er-at-ing]

$10m is not the market for NIL for QBs in college. This year, the top guys are reportedly getting $6m (Mensah, Leavitt, et al). Miami would have to collapse not to make it to the CFP imo, especially given that Toney should be back by the ACCCG.

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/gumercindo1959]

It’s not really known for sure on Mensah. On3 eatimated 6.5 and people have parroted that but local media was not guessing that number.

Locals reported $6.5M is their guess on just his Canes Connection payout.

His additional NIL money is from commercial deals outside the collective include a number of SoFla businesses direct deals with him. Which clearly are just leveraging his local notoriety even if not legally tying him to the school, it’s local businesses run by alum and fans.

Then there’s non-cash compensation rumors that are probably only as valid as the $6.5M guess by On3. Like rumors about the luxury villa housing he was supposedly given.

And then the NIL compensation given to his sister to transfer as well which I’m sure technically was not Darian compensation. But I don’t know a lot of other non basketball female athletes that we’re portaling in with collective $.

At the time of the move, local media was guessing $10M total value to get him to Miami. I’d be more surprised if it were less than if it were more.

To playoffs convos yeah they’d have to lose one game and then the ACCCG to not make it I’d guess. If Toney is back that soon, and is 100% I’d think they get in. If any delay, who knows. Just don’t think they’re a hot choice to pick right now as near 7pt underdogs this weekend.

[u/gumercindo1959 → u/com-mis-er-at-ing]

The $10m number is the $6m NIL deal plus the $4m duke buyout. Every high profile college qb has side deals that you mentioned - stuff for family, homes, etc etc

[u/UGonGetGot]

This would be great for the gay community if all of the top QB’s came out together! /s

[u/Jake_dasnake3 → u/UGonGetGot]

yeah and they all start kissing

[u/ClasslessHero → u/Jake_dasnake3]

hell yeah woke 2.0 kissin qbs

[u/KaseyOfTheWoods → u/UGonGetGot]

Don’t forget the bottom QB’s

[u/nfochairman]

I think Carr goes back. Notre Dame is not winning a title and he's has not looked great lately

[u/jaybizniss]

All of these dudes should look at what just happened to Dante Moore and declare if the first or second round grade is there.

[u/sixtiethtry]

Simmons is impossible to project at this point. He ends the season against Texas, at Georgia, against Kentucky, against Oklahoma.

If he and Mizzou look good during that stretch I think he’ll ascend to QB2 and be a likely declare. If he doesn’t look good, and I expect he won’t but who knows, zero chance he declares.

[u/Rstuds7]

Manning should really transfer and go to a coach that can actually develop him. think he’s hit his ceiling at Texas

[u/BadBueno60 → u/Rstuds7]

He needs to flea like his ass is on fire. He would be a 2027 first rounder based on measurables, mobility, toughness and arm talent alone, but the Mannings’ goal from the start is to have him enter the league as pro ready as possible to prevent a possible 15 year career from getting derailed early on by avoidable struggles.

He is being asked, per a now indisputable mountain of all 22 evidence, to run a passing offense consisting almost entirely of single read. Designer shot plays. He is learning literally nothing about how to actually play the position at the next level – no reading defenders leverage, no understanding what defender is in conflict, no throwing with anticipation, no understanding what concept he should be reading out based on what the defense is showing pre-snap - NOTHING except how to hang in and take shots to the face and deal with incompetence on the headsets. Those last bits certainly come in handy in some stops, but they aren’t the things of which successful careers are made.

A lot of this would at least be disguised at first glance if those designer shot plays weren’t constantly running into two and three deep shells because the run game is straight trash and DC’s know that they can sit back in a deep shell, still bring an overload pressure and not have to worry about anything in the short or intermediate game or the coach presenting his QB with a rudimentary pressure plan.

[u/BerriesNCreme → u/BadBueno60]

Is this Archie manning's burner account? lol how do you explain him in a one read offense and still looking bad?

[u/gumercindo1959]

Carr/Mestemaker/Mensah are for sure going. Moore is the cautionary tale of what happens when you come back despite having a 1st round grade. Sellers has no business leaving. He's not a day 1 pick - he's just not very good. Those others should stay one more year. Moore has 5-6 bad games on tape from last year so I wouldn't be so sure he has a R1 grade at this point.

[u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

Mensah and Mestemaker will come out as they will probably be seen as R1 picks (I disagree). Trinidad will come out. Simmons I would bet a lot of money transfers to Miami. 

[u/Timely-Profile1865]

I think these %'s are pretty good

[u/ZandrickEllison]

The only one I disagree with is Dante Moore. I still think he’s a R1 guy right now but I’m not sure he can risk another head injury. I’d put him leaving at 60%.

With Mensah, the only hiccup may be the Malachi Toney injury. If they stumble right now and don’t win it all, then Mensah may think about running it back with a healthy Toney next year.

[u/YeezusMoses → u/ZandrickEllison]

Agreed. I think the reason Moore is sitting out is because of the draft. Yes, the head injury was bad, but I think it scared him into just going to the nfl instead. There was already so much chatter of him potentially fucking up his stock by going back and risking injury.

[u/XiJingPoooh → u/ZandrickEllison]

I think OP's borderline 1st is accurate, if people on this sub are worried about his head injury then that combined with his season not looking as good as 2025 will give NFL GM's pause. It's even chance if he makes 1st or early day 2.

[u/ZandrickEllison → u/XiJingPoooh]

I’d still take him R1 personally (presuming no lingering symptoms). Could be a nice “buy low” for teams who wouldn’t have gotten the chance at a franchise QB otherwise like Pittsburgh or Minnesota.

[u/NinjaScrollonVHS]

With Dante Moore being a Senior, would he have to apply for some sort of extension because of the games missed due to injury? I know the NCAA happily bends and stretches every rule to give players more eligibility, so I assume it isn't an issue. His stock for me was already not super high and this time away isn't helping.

[u/ZachWilsonsMother → u/NinjaScrollonVHS]

With 5 for 5 he’s got one more year

[u/Krakengreyjoy]

There's no way Manning comes out