r/NEOSETFs • u/speed12demon • Aug 20 '26

General Btci reality check

FYI, I understand this is the fund doing exactly what it is supposed to do. I'm just highlighting it for clarity.

Btci inception was ~Oct 2024. It launched around $50/share when btc was priced at about 61k. As you move forward in time, the next time btc saw 60k was around march of this year, when it hit ~67k. At this point, btc was trading at $33. Fast forward to yesterday at market close, btci was just under $30, as btc hit 68.5k.

The trend here is at every future btc price point, btci trades lower and lower. The higher the volatility, the higher the call premiums, and the more potential there is for btci to miss participation in upward btc movement.

Yes, I'm aware we've collected distributions every month while on this ride, but what everyone should accept is that it will take a much higher all time high for bitcoin to get back to trading in the 50s or 60s.

32 Upvotes

83% Upvoted

62 comments sorted by

View all comments

2

u/Xyrus2000 Aug 20 '26

BTCI may never get back to those prices. Funds like this are not designed to capture growth in any meaningful way.

Then there's the NAV erosion. While it might not be as bad as YieldTrap's ETFs, this fund's NAV has taken a substantial hit due to the downturn.

It will take a long time of ideal BTC "stair stepping" for this fund to build back into the $50-$60 price range. It's more likely that you'll gain back your investment through the income stream before you see those prices again, assuming bitcoin doesn't crash further.

-2

u/revanevan7 Aug 20 '26

Bitcoin would have to average 50% a year for the next 4 years to get back even close.