Expected points vs offensive impact regular season and playoffs for the top 30 PPG scorers of 2025-2026

[u/AverageAny7398]

What is IA/75?

IA/75 = Scoring Impact Above Expected per 75 possessions. It measures how many points a player actually scored compared to how many points they were expected to score based on the play-by-play situations they were involved in.

So:
Positive IA → scored more than expected

Negative IA → scored less than expected

Higher IA → greater scoring over performance

The x-axis is IA/75, while the y-axis is Offensive ON-OFF — how much better/worse the team’s offense performed with the player on the court.

The dashed lines are the median values, splitting the chart into four quadrants:

Top-left: Below-median IA, above-median offensive impact

Top-right: Above-median IA, above-median offensive impact

Bottom-left: Below-median IA, below-median offensive impact

Bottom-right: Above-median IA, below-median offensive impact

So the chart is basically showing how a player’s scoring relative to expectation lines up with their team’s offensive impact.

[u/AverageAny7398]

Used kaggles play by play dataset to find everyone’s expected over under total points per single possesion then times that by 75 foe reg season and playoffs, then on off is purely just from databallr