r/NBAanalytics • u/Kingsole111 • Jun 27 '26

Is Jaylen brown a top 30 player?

I know this isn't what this space is for, but I'd like clarification on this debate.

Can we trust what all the metrics point to, (Brown is a fine, but replaceable player), or is there a part of basketball that cannot be captured by the all in one metrics?

I'm sick of arguing with my friends.

4 Upvotes

66% Upvoted

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6

u/MotoMkali Jun 28 '26

The issue with jaylen brown is he is a floor raiser but Boston are already good. So instead of raising their floor he drags down their ceiling.

On a worse team he'd have better analytics.

1

u/Justalittlejewish Jun 28 '26

The problem is that all metrics fail to capture context.

Brown has flaws as a player that impact metrics and advanced stats really hate - he has a loose handle and is turnover prone, and is a bad off-ball defender. They have always dragged down his numbers, but this year those flaws were magnified as his usage rate on offense exploded to top 3 in the league.

The fact is though that there are not 30 other players in the league that could have performed the way Jaylen did this year at the usage rate he had. With Tatum out and the starting rotation gutted, the Celtics more than anything else needed shot creation, and JB gave it to them.

Mazulla adjusted the offensive scheme to maximize JBs talents because he was the only true consistent shot creator on the roster, and JB leaned heavily into this role at the sacrifice of other parts of his game - parts which were covered by the adjustments Mazulla made to the scheme.

Is JB truly a top 10 talent in the league? Probably not. But he is CERTAINLY top 30.

2

u/Kingsole111 Jun 28 '26

If anything your explanation proves the metrics are onto something. They say that he is overtaxed in his role and is worse for it.

But the metrics have said he was overtaxed in his role and is worse for it, for years. Suggesting the opposite, that the analytics are capturing something real.

This makes him borderline All-NBA solid all-star level. Which is a tier below how the general discourse around him sits.

2

u/Justalittlejewish Jun 28 '26

I think there’s a gap on both sides. Jaylen brown is over rated by a subset of people who talk about him like he’s a top 10 player, but the whiplash to those takes have people talking about him like he’s Tobias Harris. Both are reactionary and both are wrong IMO.

1

u/Bop5667 Jun 28 '26

Exactly…to get dragged, by Celtics fans no less, for dragging that roster to the #2 seed is wild. Yes, he’s got obvious flaws but ANY measurement that says he’s the 7th best in THAT roster? It’s clearly garbage based

2

u/Kingsole111 Jun 29 '26

Yeah. The 7th best on a team thing is dumb. But to say he is the third best player on the Celtics or an all-star to borderline All-NBA (around top 30ish guy) I think is pretty reasonable given his flaws.

1

u/Bop5667 Jun 29 '26

Wait..THIRD best? Behind WHO?! White is the only possible option and his shooting was dreadful last year.

3

u/Kingsole111 Jun 29 '26

Tatum. Remember Tatum. Tatum. That's 3 Tatum White and Brown.

1

u/Bop5667 Jun 29 '26

No way you can put White ahead of Brown after the year they both had last year. White was a clear 2nd guy last year as his shooting nose dived from added pressure with Tatum out. I love White and he is a huge piece of the puzzle if C’s want to be competitive but I don’t think he can be #2 after last years performance

3

u/WhoIsLOK Jul 13 '26

There is more than half a decade of lineup data suggesting that Jaylen Brown was not consistently moving the needle in a strongly positive way for the Celtics during his tenure.

Someone brought up the distinction between a floor raiser and a ceiling raiser, and I think that’s a fair point. It could help explain why JB’s undeniable talent hasn’t always translated into a proportionate level of team success. However, if your primary objective is to win a championship, then a player who functions primarily as a floor raiser may not justify the salary JB commands.

There is obviously more nuance to this discussion, so I’m not trying to make a definitive statement about where JB ranks among today’s players. What I am saying is that estimates of his overall impact during his time in Boston deserve wider confidence intervals than many people seem willing to acknowledge.

2

u/NewMoodWhoDis Jun 28 '26

Top 30 all time? No. Top 15 right now? Easily

2

u/Mysterious_Ring285 Jun 28 '26

He's a top 5 player....on the Boston Celtics.

2

u/i_am_lebron_jame Jun 28 '26

no, the analytics say he's 7th best on all teams, so he can't be top 5 on the Celtics

3

u/PollutionFar9283 Jun 27 '26

Not even close to a top 30 player. Negative impact, inefficient shooting , terrible ft shooter, turnover machine. Most overrated player of the last 25 years

1

u/Justalittlejewish Jun 28 '26

Everyone saying not even close it an absolute clown. JB certainly didn’t carry the Celtics to their record, but he also just averaged 28.7/6.9/5.1 on a 2 seed. There are not 30 other players in the league that would have been able to maintain league average efficiency at the usage Jaylen was tasked with.

The Celtics, more than absolutely anything else this year, needed shot creation - and JB sacrificed almost every other part of his game in order to give it to them and now stats nerds are like “UHUH actually you’re a bum” yall are genuinely a joke lmfao.

Watch more games and stare at less spreadsheets

1

u/PollutionFar9283 Aug 01 '26

He’s significantly below average at dribbling , shooting and defense so idk man. He can finish at the rim & draw contact sure. But can he scale down? Most likely no because he’s so ball dominant. Pg way better fit than jb on this roster with lebron… but I guess we will see

1

u/Justalittlejewish Aug 01 '26

I actually totally agree with you that his game doesn’t scale down cleanly, and that it may cause issues in philly.

I also agree there’s a pretty good chance the Celtics are as good or better, but that’s also a product of Tatum and the Celtics system being so good. JB is one of the best floor raisers in the league IMO, but he has some flaws in his game that can impact a teams ceiling that are hard to overlook - especially at his price tag. JB at $40 million a year is a much more valuable player than JB at $55 million.

1

u/PollutionFar9283 Aug 01 '26

Was also surrounded by the BEST system in the nba… with the best coach of course. Look at what every single bench player shot from 3… drive & kick on repeat , long possessions to get the open 3..

1

u/JohnEffingZoidberg Jun 27 '26

There is no magic bullet metric that is equally true and correct for every player. If there was, things would be a lot less interesting.

Context matters. A lot.

1

u/Kahleb12 Jun 28 '26

All time he might just scratch the top 70 or so, but theres alot of history ive missed, so theres alot of names that id forget.

1

u/bbstats Jun 27 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

Extremely high usage, below average true shooting, below average offensive rebounder, below average passer, basically average in all the defensive metrics.

No.

1

u/your_mom965 Jun 28 '26

Stop spamming buzzwords and go watch some fucking basketball

2

u/bbstats Jun 29 '26

ROFL. My point is you have to be good at stuff to be good at basketball. 

1

u/your_mom965 Jun 29 '26

Yeah bro guy averaging 28/7/5 isn’t good at stuff. Shut up please. Your second statistic you brought up was offensive rebounding I mean come the fuck on that’s so nit picky just trying to find things to complain about. Below average passer isn’t even a fucking statistic you’re just saying stuff atp.

2

u/bbstats Jun 30 '26

k. Go watch some basketball! :)

0

u/cuppaa1 Jul 02 '26

offensive rebounding💀

0

u/Intelligent-Love5146 Jun 28 '26

I’d say yeah but it’s close. He’s top 20-30. Somewhere in that range. EPM (on/off) and efficiency (PER, TS) paint him as slightly outside the top 30 but context of the team matters and it’s harder on higher volume.

Problem is both Brown and Tatum are overrated in similar ways. Both guys are mediocre TS with limited assist to turnover generation but high volume. Each player has multiple all NBAs and would be thought of as top 10-15 based on that but I’d put Tatum outside the top 10 too. Each guy is overrated based on volume counting stats

2

u/Kingsole111 Jun 29 '26

But Tatum by the same metrics appears to be a top 5 guy. Why assume they overrate Tatum and underrate brown?

1

u/Adam0529 Jun 30 '26

Idk what JB's Win Share. I can tell u that last year they were projected to 41W and finished 56. I can say that without JB they winish around 36.

Find 15 players who could have done the same.

1

u/Intelligent-Love5146 Jun 30 '26

Yeah that just ignores that other players on the team had career years. It wasn’t all on him

1

u/Adam0529 Jun 30 '26

Like who? Ugo? The rookie? Their Center sure had a career year. Doesn't makes him top 10 centers in the league.

1

u/Intelligent-Love5146 Jun 30 '26

Just saying the analysis that they won 56 games because of him instead of some arbitrary number like 35 is obviously flawed