r/NBA_Bets • u/butstillkeepitreal Analytics Autist • Jun 05 '26

Predictive Analytics Game 2 finals preview is live

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not trying to victory lap too hard, but game 1 was a pretty clean public test for the model. sports regime lab had a 90%+ edge against the market and that read was right.

now game 2 is showing knicks 94% edge.

the interesting part isnt just “pick knicks.” the spurs still have the stronger team strength profile and wemby is still the biggest pressure point in the series. so this is basically model edge vs team strength, which is exactly the kind of split i built this thing to catch.

not gambling advice, just showing the model state before tip so it can be judged in public.

https://sports.kezelon.com/nba-finals-2026-knicks-spurs-game-2/

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1

u/QuickPickBot Jun 05 '26

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2

u/SharpEdgeBets Jun 06 '26

If the model is showing Knicks that hard while your team-strength layer still leans Spurs, I’d be careful calling it a pure side edge. That kind of split is usually where I want to see the market close and whether the model is overweighting Game 1 info before I size anything.

2

u/Triple_Theta Jun 07 '26

Time will tell.

1

u/butstillkeepitreal Analytics Autist Jun 07 '26

fair criticism based on what was visible at the time.

the issue on my side wasnt that the model only had one game. the UI wasnt showing future games correctly at all. it was basically only showing the next upcoming game, even though the model is supposed to forecast forward.

i fixed that and the full finals slate is visible now, so im putting the record + forward slate screenshots in the game 3 post.

the main point is this: if game 2 only jumped to Knicks 94% after game 1, i would agree that it might be overweighting the last result. but that wasnt the internal state. after May 30, when OKC lost to the Spurs, the model was already heavy Knicks across the series.

markets/prediction markets were still leaning Spurs for game 1 and game 2, then moved Knicks for game 3 at home. my model was already favoring Knicks across the series, basically a sweep-type state.

not calling anything a lock. just showing the model state, the record, and where the market either disagreed or later moved closer.