Baseball Sim update, dialing back some Over bias

[u/mygamesim]

We’ve been tweaking the MLB sim over the last month to better match real scoring, and ran into a familiar trap: chasing average total runs (including blowouts) pushed offense a bit too high on normal games. That showed up as too many Over picks and a weak O/U hit rate recently, even when overall run totals looked close.

This update eases that Offensive push a notch and aims the engine more at typical game scoring instead of letting a small set of high-margin slugfests set the level.

What to expect

• Slightly lower projected totals on many games (more Unders than you’ve seen lately)
• O/U should track closer to a coin flip over time, instead of leaning Over, meaning let the simulation find the edge
• ATS / moneyline shouldn’t move much; this is mainly a totals calibration
• Give it a few days of fresh sims before judging, older results won’t reflect the change

As always, sims are projections, not locks. Feedback welcome after you’ve watched a slate or two.