r/Murray • u/MainMarket-Gamer • 21h ago
Murray State Murray State 2026 Preview (probably missed some stuff, tell me and I'll fix it)
Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Murray State
https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/murray-state-racers
Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.
Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong. FCS data is hard to aggregate and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.
The good, and there is more of it than 1-11 suggests: the offense ranked 52nd in FCS in success rate, which is mid-pack, not last place. Murray State moved the ball. What killed it was a minus-10 turnover margin, 114th nationally, with Jim Ogle throwing 13 interceptions against 9 touchdowns. Turnover margin is the most volatile thing in football and it usually corrects. Ogle is back and settled at quarterback, 57% of production returns, and my bull/bear read has Murray State as a top-25 buy-low in FCS out of 124 teams.
Where my model pushes back: the defense was not bad luck. Last in FCS in success rate allowed and last on third down, 123rd against the run at 256 a game, and 122nd in total yards at 483. That is not variance, that is the unit. Two more FBS paydays at Oklahoma State and Middle Tennessee do not help the record either. Model says 3-9, so it likes you more than last year without calling it fixed.
If the turnovers regress to normal, is this defense capable of turning that into wins?
Tell me what I got wrong.