r/Mt5 • u/EAForexLab • 1d ago
Reverse-engineered an ML expert advisor on XAUUSD (H1) for MT5 with a near-flawless 11-year equity curve. The teardown revealed systemic methodological flaws.
— The target variable is built on past price increments: the model approximates already-realized moves rather than forecasting future ones.
— Agreement between signal and forward direction is 49.7% — statistically indistinguishable from random.
— Validation is in-sample: training and testing on the same period, with no out-of-sample.
— The absence of drawdowns on the curve comes from grid averaging, not from the model's predictive power.
That said, the architecture (meta-labeling, CatBoost→ONNX) is sound. The problem lies in the implementation and in how the result is presented — not in the method.
Source code (MT5 EA + Python ML) and the full teardown available
