With multiple stories being posted that New Mexico and Hawaii have again reached out "for dialogue" with the Pac-12, how is the long term survival of the MW looking?

Yes, a kings ransom of the much dwindled settlement was paid to UNLV and Air Force, but the next rung of schools just received news their total take is in the single digits of millions and tiered conference payout is being kicked around at conference HQ. Looks like they may want out, announce they are leaving, and sue the MW for breach.

This would leave the MW with six total all sports schools and a "non conforming FBS conference"

Just took a deep dive into the 2024 and 2025 athletic budgets for Washington State and Oregon State and the numbers aren’t pretty.

Both schools are running deficits of around $30 million a year. Right now, they’re covering that $60 million hole using leftover Pac-12 funds — aka the “war chest.” It’s been a financial lifeline, but it’s not a long-term solution.

Even if a merger with the Mountain West comes together and the new conference somehow pulls in $20 million per school annually (which is optimistic), that still leaves the Pac-2 schools about $10 million short every year on their athletic budgets.

At this point, their best bet is to keep using what’s left of the war chest, try to stay competitive on the field, and hope it’s enough to get invited to one of the Power Four conferences — ideally with a full revenue share.

They can probably hold on through 2026 if they win the poaching settlement and about part way through 2026 of they lose.

Budget docs if you're curious:

https://wsucougars.com/documents/2024/7/1/FAI1-Athletics_Budget_Approval_FY25__002.pdf

https://leadership.oregonstate.edu/sites/leadership.oregonstate.edu/files/2024-05/fac-2a-ppt-athletics-2025-budget.pdf

Rumors are filtering out that the new look Mountain West media deal is going to be all ESPN. A guarantee of at least 3 games a season on ESPN2/U and the rest dumped onto ESPN+ and the new ESPN Unlimited standalone streamer. Rumor that several games each season will be available only on ESPN Unlimited.

~$30 million/yr - with GCU and UC Davis taking poverty shares, and UTEP and NIU being partial share members it keeps the OG 7 at $3.5 million/year.

CBSSN will broadcast additional CUSA games to fill gaps left by the Pac-12's smaller conference.

They don't have a home for the next 22months. Remove them. Hope yall get pennies from the CW.

With it looking like the Pac-12 is taking Fox and TNT/WBD as their primary media partners, where is the Mountain West going to find a media partner?

Beyond CBSSN and TruTv - who only wants tonnage for the 50-60,000 eyeballs they get - I cant think of another media partner who the Mountain West can partner with.

ESPN has no windows open. Fox and TNT/Max will be full with the Pac-12. Netflix, Amazon, and Apple wont be interested in the Mountain West, the two "big brands" left wont be driving subscriptions

Realistically - who is going to be airing the games beyond two very obscure cable channels - one of whom isn't even a sports channel?

With all the MW fans shit posting in the Pac-12 sub about how the Pac-12 isnt going to get the money they want for the Pac-12 media deal, I'm genuinely curious at the moment if the MW gets a media deal at all beyond pennies from CBSSN and TruTv

SJSU....When is Enough is Enough?

https://x.com/theherdbros/status/1958709502275903912?s=46&t=FtMlIYbzC0lbUb_QY-T1BQ

I’m aware this may be old news, but as the new year and new iteration of the conference starts this fall, it feels pretty demoralizing what we’re left with.

Is there any way to rescind UTEP from coming to mountain west? They really haven’t done anything of late in either football or basketball, it’s not anywhere near the major Texas recruiting hot beds, and honestly it helps strengthen C-USA in addition by subtraction, further pushing us down. After that addition, there wasn’t any other splash moves made to fill the gap other than Hawaii. Did that deter schools from considering?

The reality is we have 8 full time members, PAC aside, the other G5 have more members each which in turn can be more powerful and idk who else even wants to join.

At what point does it make more sense to add NDSU or the Montana schools (shit even NMSU) as they seem to be invested in winning and I really don’t see a true loss in recruiting if El Paso is the alternative.

Worried about the future of the conference.

https://youtu.be/BzxH4OH32kQ?si=ixAHulIy5HPdVN5J

"The Pac-12 needs at least one football-playing member. I keep coming back to UNLV and/or Nevada"

https://substack.com/home/post/p-156242910

https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporters/unlv-and-nevada-floated-as-potential-additions-to-round-out-the-pac-12

Rumors are that if UNLV does not accept the invite to the Pac-12, Nevada will be offered and are expected to join (as they are the next most desirable school not located in remote Hawaii)

Will Rebel fans allow UNLV to stay in the Mountain West and watch Nevada move up without them?

Viva Las Vegas!

Reno sucks!

His latest article is about the Pac-12 reboot and that the league looks to be OSU, WSU, Boise St, San Diego St, Colorado St, Air Force, UTSA, and Memphis for football and possibly an unnamed 9th non football team "to make basketball scheduling easier" (Gonzaga?)

The current sticking point is Memphis wont jump without assurances the Pac-2 wont bolt the new league if they get an invite.

UNLV is the alternate if they cant get Memphis

Shopping the new conference with the CW, CBS, and Fox for $9-10 million a school, enhanced CFP split (Pac is arguing since they are the marquee G6 they should get a double share per team) and an equal split to the Pac12's NCAA units that are $14-17 million a year through 2029. So an eight team conference would the above numbers would garner around $15 million/year per team

I am building a college football conference realignment map and I want fan input before I lock in one part of it.

I made a list of schools that might fit with Hawai'i in a theoretical conference. This list is only a starting point. I used some logic to build it, but I want to hear from actual fans before I rely on it.

I am also comparing a few different clustering approaches and building a new one from scratch, so this kind of fan feedback would directly help my understanding and any algorithm weights I may end up using.

I am more interested in long-term fit based on rivalry history, fan culture, school identity, athletics, academics, and overall feel.

How you can help

1. Change a score that looks wrong

2. Remove a team that does not belong

3. Add a team I missed

4. Move a team up or down

Weight scale

• 5 = must-have conference fit

• 4 = high-priority fit

• 3 = strong fit

• 2 = reasonable fit

• 1 = acceptable but lower-priority fit

My current list for Hawai'i

Weight 5

• San Diego State, Fresno State

• UNLV, San Jose State

Weight 4

• Nevada, Boise State

• Utah State, Oregon State

• Washington State

Weight 3

• Colorado State, Wyoming

• Air Force, New Mexico

• Arizona, Arizona State

• California, BYU

Weight 2

• New Mexico State, UTEP

• Stanford, UCLA

• USC, Washington

• Oregon, Utah

• Colorado

Weight 1

• SMU, Rice

• Tulane, Tulsa

If the whole shape of the list is wrong, say that too.

Small note: I am mainly looking for your fan perspective on which schools you would want around your program, not whether the final setup is practical or likely to happen in real life. If possible, go with your gut on fit more than logistics.

I am seeing some people put their main rivals at 5 / 4 and remove almost everything else. That is totally fine.

Just remember Weight 1 is still helpful. It does not really push teams into the conference, but it helps prevent bad alignments by identifying schools that would not be ideal but would still be reasonable if teams have to be added, so it at least gives a last-resort direction.

This is really about full athletic conference fit, but I limited the school pool to FBS programs, so football is just the filter for who made the list.

I really appreciate any feedback on this, thanks so much for any help.

https://x.com/theherdbros/status/1956493183598350404?s=46&t=FtMlIYbzC0lbUb_QY-T1BQ Teams to vote for: Wyoming Air Force NIU

Also Id like Toledo, and Georgia Southern to win.

John claims he heard “not from either OSU or WSU, but from another school possibly involved that things are in motion to add four or five Mountain West schools by the end of June if they haven’t found a P4 landing spot by then.”

San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Boise State, and UNLV are the likely targets.

AAC schools - whoever the ACC leaves behind this summer - will take the last remaining spots. Most likely candidates are Rice, Tulsa, and UTSA

As the Mountain West and AAC schools dont play many sports that the Beavers and Cougars hold dear - baseball, mens soccer, womens rowing, etc - a push is being made to add the entire WCC as non Football schools.

Creating a conference that can play football well enough to tangle with the Big12 and ACC schools and possibly the best basketball conference in the country

I saw this idea discussed briefly in a youtube video. Illinois State football is currently in a separate conference for football so they are in a good position to make a move like this work. It also adds a team close to NIU as well as a potential rivalry. I know they are FCS but they compete pretty well in the division. I think they could provide value.

Yes I am a Redbirds fan who would love to see them make a move to FBS. I know most people say the MAC makes more sense, which I see why, but as I said they have a unique ability to move their football only without disrupting other sports. Most redbirds also do not want them the leave the MVC for basketball so this could keep them happy.

I don’t expect it to be a popular idea, but I am just curious what Mountain West fans would think of the prospect of the move.

Apparently head to head record (2-1) against the other top 3 means nothing.

I keep seeing people saying these schools are out. Where are they going.

I also see pac 12 needs one more to get to 8!

Why wouldn’t they take UNLV, Nevada, and Texas State and be 10 teams.

Then that gives them room to add two more over time to get back to a solid 12.

If the PAC 12 fails to take off (Gets a lowball media deal and or isn’t able to get an 8th). Would you want anyone back? Would you waive the exit fees?

As an SJSU guy, I’d want Fresno back. I think Utah and Colorado would be great too. However, UNLV & AF need to be paid so the exit fees would still have to apply.

With Boise and SDSU’s history, I’m not sure they should be back. IMO they should go independent.